South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 4 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent long range E'ly swell easing through Thurs, overlapped by new S swell.
• Building S'ly swell Thurs PM with light winds, holding  Fri, easing Sat, best suited to S swell magnets
• Longer period S swell glancing coast later Sun/Mon.
• Better angled SSE swell Mon, slowly easing through Tues.
• Small amounts of short period E’ly tradewind swell from Tues, favouring Sunshine Coast, possibly lingering at low levels through next week.

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small inconsistent long range E swell Thurs being overlapped by new S swell.
• Strong building S'ly swell Thurs from mid-morning with light winds, holding Fri before easing late in the day.
• Residual S swell Sat with light winds, longer period pulse Sun.
• Strong S/SSE pulse Mon, slowly easing through Tues.
• More S swell on the long term radar, stay tuned.

Recap

Not much on offer yesterday with our E swell from New Zealand slowly filling in to provide a few slow 2 footers. Most spots were a mess with prevailing N'ly wind. A few backbeaches supplied rideable surf but it was nothing to write home about.Today has been a better deal with inconsistent 2ft+ sets, the occasional 3footer on offer for the patient on a mid-morning pulse and synoptic W'ly wind brushing open beaches clean. That wind was a bit problematic at most Points which offered the best bathymetry for the small, long lines of E swell. 

This week (Aug 5 - 6)

We’re in the starting blocks now for our imminent S swell event. Looks like we’re running around 6-10 hrs later in terms of timing compared to Mon’s forecast. Gabo Island - a good proxy for fronts pushing through Bass Strait- didn’t see W’ly gales until the wee hours this morning, with winds tilting WSW from 7am and maintaining gale force strength up to time of writing. Otherwise we are on track for a solid S swell event with a  complex double-headed low forming E of Tasmania through today, with an impressive pressure gradient squeeze from a large elongated high moving into the SW of the continent.

The initial pulse is expected to propagate northwards with the MNC seeing swell from the early morning, filling in mid-late morning through the North Coast and getting over the border into QLD after lunch. Long range, inconsistent E swell is likely to pad out wave heights before then but keep expectations hosed down, it’s shown to be at the lower end of forecast expectations and you’ll need patience and a good shallow bank to find something surfable during Thursday.

 No change to the size prediction from our upcoming S swell, a good chunky 4-5ft at places with S swell exposure across the MNC and North Coast, grading smaller into semi-protected Points. SEQLD can expect some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, with Sunny Coast northern ends seeing some 2ft surf later in the a’noon. Classic SW winds being generated by the outflow of the low along the Northern flank should maintain clean conditions, with winds laying down a notch or two later in the a’noon.

Friday still looks good to great too, for NENSW, with much more subdued prospects for SEQLD. As mentioned on Wednesday a series of SW fetches slingshot up around the complex low and a secondary fetch which extends further south from Tasmania overnight Wed/early Thurs is expected to provide another strong pulse, probably filling in overnight Thursday over the initial pulse. This pulse should hold well through Friday and with slightly more fetch length and a tiny bump in period it could well provide some sets in excess of 4-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW where the appropriate bathymetry can make the most of the size. Expect size to grade smaller at spots with less S swell exposure. If you found a S swell magnet Thurs in SEQLD then repeat the dose Friday, the slight bump in period should see a little more size- say 3ft at Goldy swell magnets- but I’m always hesitant to call a straight S swell any bigger than 2ft for the Sunshine Coast. 

Offshore winds keep it clean and they are expected to lay down in strength during the day as the low moves away. The trend will be down during Fri and the easing trend sets in during the late morning so if you’ve got aspirations to get the biggest of the swell, keep the early Fri well and truly on the radar. Light seabreezes are possible to close out the working week as pressure gradients in the Tasman sea ease adjacent to the NSW coast.

This weekend (Aug 7-8).

Quite a substantial upgrade in potential size later this weekend, with some caveats for tricky winds. Read on for details.

Saturday will have some fun waves on offer across NENSW, with leftover S swell and some small refracted S swell from continuing WSW to SW winds out of Bass Strait on Friday. Models aren’t much interested in the flukey Bass Strait source fetch but I reckon it will keep S swell magnets ticking over. 2-3ft surf in the morning should be whisper clean under a light/mod W’ly flow with a light N’ly to NE Seabreeze offering up some options in the a’noon for magnets up and down the coast. SEQLD wave heights are likely to drop below a surfable/fun threshold, at least on a shortboard, during Sat. The usual S facing magnets will have the best chance of a rideable offering with a border crossing raid off the menu.

Sunday maintains the S’ly swell cycle, favouring NENSW. A long period pulse of S swell is expected to propagate up the coast during Sun, and while models don’t expect much to impact SEQLD it’ll be worth checking Sunshine Coast swell magnets on Sun with the longer period offering a better chance of refracting into the more sheltered coastline north of Cape Moreton. Offshore winds early will be replaced by freshening S’lies as a change makes it’s way north.

Next week (Aug 9 onwards).

Synoptically, Sunday now looks a different beast compared to Wednesdays forecast. A small trough Sat east of Tasmania separated from the polar flow forms a compact low that super-charges another SW fetch of severe gales that tracks aggressively NE into the central Tasman overnight Sat into Sun. While the winds are still not perfectly aligned the NE movement into the Tasman into an already active sea state is expected to generate another strong pulse of S/SSE swell Mon.  Size is expected in the 4-5ft range at S’ly exposed breaks in NENSW, grading smaller into more protected spots. With the improved swell angle, we'll see more spread into both semi-protected locations and SEQLD. Gold Coast swell magnets in particular are likely to be in the 3-4ft range, grading smaller 3ft into the Sunshine coast. S’ly winds should tend more SW early Mon, offering a good window for those spots with a favourable orientation to the SSE swell and a tiny bit of wind protection.

The just mentioned low becomes slow moving as it drifts towards New Zealand’s west coast late Sunday. That sets up a much “longer tail” for the swell event as sideband energy from this slow moving system tracks back to the East Coast. That suggests a very slow easing trend with 3-4ft by close of play Mon, easing further into the 3ft range during Tuesday. High pressure in the central Tasman sets up a ridge along the QLD coast and this directs onshore winds along the coast through Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Compared to the very weak tradewind band mentioned on Wed, the high pressure ridge now extends into the Coral Sea with a little more vigour. It’s a not a fully fledged tradewind band by any means but for August it’s a welcome sight. E’ly short period tradewind swell should bump up through Tues, into Wed with the Sunshine Coast seeing the best of it due to proximity to the fetch. We’re talking some 2ft tradewind swell so keep expectations appropriately pegged.

Longer term and a series of complex polar lows and cold fronts marshall their forces in the southern Ocean next week, with a series of fronts expected to arrive Thurs 12/8, accompanied by a deep polar low. At the moment fetches look quite zonal (W-E oriented) but the polar low has a chance of a rare deep southern Ocean SE fetch aimed back at the Tasman sea. All this suggests more S swell by next weekend. More on this in Fridays forecast, hope you get a few from this S swell.