COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy's picture
monkeyboy Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 11:51am

Nothing to do with this thread's topic but a welcome distraction: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/28/other-surfers-respect-me-t...

When do we stop hating each other ?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 11:54am

Freeride….the other handy thing of my contrary opinion at the start of the situation was that it shows I’m not wedded to ant belief through ideology. My mind is open and has been the whole time. I e taken everything in good faith and come to a conclusion based on what I believe is an obvious reaction to things I’ve learned and seen along the way.

This was myself in June 2020…quite the turnaround from a few months previous. I still think it’s faintly ridiculous to believe otherwise.

Some think it’s all conspiracy theory ….I see too much real world behaviour which says it’s not.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:19pm
freeride76 wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Yet I’m still to be proven wrong on a single issue.

I'm honestly not having a go, but its interesting to go read the first half dozen pages of this thread from Mar 2020.

A few people have changed their tune.

You were posting up panic porn videos of Italian hospitals and calling for school closures.

Things do change.

I thought it was a nothing burger.

to be fair... for anyone who was travelling at that time, or even just with a keen eye on overseas media, the oz media, government, and institutions needed a massive grenade up their bum... desperately.... they were ignorant and apathetic to the point of gross negligence... as we saw...

interestingly, your average guardianista at that time was quite dismissive of the severity of the virus, and were more worried about the closing of borders and the perceived 'racism' of such moves...

the situation has changed considerably since then, as knowledge and treatments, and even the virus has evolved....

and now your average guardianista is totally invested in maintaiming some of the most 'draconian' of those measures, even as the severity of the situation so clearly obviously wanes...

the 'smugness' and righteousness of some is beyond bareable, especially considering the long road to this little junction of contradictions....

and I think that frustration shows in blowin's posts, yes he gets excited, and yes he exaggerates... but his assessment of the changing situation, and his changing position, is way closer to any 'truth' than half of the beholdens on here...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:05pm

I'm not really smug about being right. I'm more furious that fuckwits like blowin, burleigh, and shortenism keep pushing lethal anti-vax anti-lockdown garbage after 2 years.
the let it rip approach has been a medical and economic disaster across the globe and it takes a very special brand of stupid to keep pushing this rubbish.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:06pm
Jelly Flater wrote:

Haha … gold ;)

Get off the farkn keyboard blowin…

Blowin the anti authoritarian authoritarian anti dictator living in his own mental dictatorship…

Give it a rest …
Look how much time u spend on here ;)
What do u actually do when not rabbiting on about nutbag fantasies and telling everyone else how right u are?!

What a sad existence. When the pandemic eases you can always tell everyone in the real world how u served your purpose by just incessantly talking shit on a computer ;);)

Well done.
Bloke ;);)

Yeah, nah.

Thing is bloke, you know that 40 or 50 hours per week you waste chasing a dollar ? Plus the peripheral hours you waste getting ready for work, commuting to work, worrying about work?

Well I don’t have to do that shit.

So excuse me if YOU think waste MY time bloke , cause I assume you’re a fuvking muppet slave.

Hey…I don’t feel this way about everyone who earns a living. I worked for my money myself, but when some fuck thinks he’s taking the pass out of me cause I only surf or fish or write or read or love or grow or enjoy or fucking whatever for so many hours per day and still have ample time to talk shit on here then they’ve immediately labeled themselves a fucken idiot.

Besides …..the covid bullshit is life altering and affects everyone’s life and the bullshit is relentless and from every direction. I’m not talking about when I’m surfing or walking through the bush or hanging with mates, I mean it’s every time I pick up a newspaper, walk past a TV. It’s the Government telling me I can’t visit my parents in hospital and that I can’t leave the country and that I’ve got to get an injection I don’t want, don’t need and which knocks me on my arse for days. It’s my mates going bankrupt, it’s a copper telling me I have to get back inside my house when I’m standing looking at the ocean with no one else around for kilometres. It’s bullshit control , disruption and the purposeful instilling of needless fear in millions of invulnerable and healthy people.

Fuvk them and fuck you. Do your shitty life your way and keep your opinions on my life to yourself.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:09pm
Vic Local wrote:

I'm not really smug about being right. I'm more furious that fuckwits like blowin, burleigh, and shortenism keep pushing lethal anti-vax anti-lockdown garbage after 2 years.
the let it rip approach has been a medical and economic disaster across the globe and it takes a very special brand of stupid to keep pushing this rubbish.

We are letting it rip now and there is no medical or economic disaster.

The disaster has always been through the government bullshit demanded by chickenshit softcocks like you who PROFITEER from the catastrophe.

Thousands and thousands of “cases” with the ICU in NSW 3% occupied with sick people who just happen to test positive to covid in the past 28 days.

Enough with your lies. You’ve personally contributed to so much disaster it’s hectic.

On your bike bloke. Take your Fear mongering with you.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:11pm

Give it a rest blowin you absolute clown. Jelly Fletcher makes his first ever post here, and you've just invented his lifestyle so you can abuse him.
Fair dinkum mate, you're a very sad little man.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:14pm

"I'm not really smug about being right"

bahahahahahaha

the parody account continues...

this guy cannot be real

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:21pm
Vic Local wrote:

I'm not really smug about being right.

Jesus VL, you have started the year with comedy gold right there.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:20pm
Blowin wrote:
Jelly Flater wrote:

Haha … gold ;)

Get off the farkn keyboard blowin…

Blowin the anti authoritarian authoritarian anti dictator living in his own mental dictatorship…

Give it a rest …
Look how much time u spend on here ;)
What do u actually do when not rabbiting on about nutbag fantasies and telling everyone else how right u are?!

What a sad existence. When the pandemic eases you can always tell everyone in the real world how u served your purpose by just incessantly talking shit on a computer ;);)

Well done.
Bloke ;);)

Yeah, nah.

Thing is bloke, you know that 40 or 50 hours per week you waste chasing a dollar ? Plus the peripheral hours you waste getting ready for work, commuting to work, worrying about work?

Well I don’t have to do that shit.

So excuse me if YOU think waste MY time bloke , cause I assume you’re a fuvking muppet slave.

Hey…I don’t feel this way about everyone who earns a living. I worked for my money myself, but when some fuck thinks he’s taking the pass out of me cause I only surf or fish or write or read or love or grow or enjoy or fucking whatever for so many hours per day and still have ample time to talk shit on here then they’ve immediately labeled themselves a fucken idiot.

Besides …..the covid bullshit is life altering and affects everyone’s life and the bullshit is relentless and from every direction. I’m not talking about when I’m surfing or walking through the bush or hanging with mates, I mean it’s every time I pick up a newspaper, walk past a TV. It’s the Government telling me I can’t visit my parents in hospital and that I can’t leave the country and that I’ve got to get an injection I don’t want, don’t need and which knocks me on my arse for days. It’s my mates going bankrupt, it’s a copper telling me I have to get back inside my house when I’m standing looking at the ocean with no one else around for kilometres. It’s bullshit control , disruption and the purposeful instilling of needless fear in millions of invulnerable and healthy people.

Fuvk them and fuck you. Do your shitty life your way and keep your opinions on my life to yourself.

Are you drinking?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:21pm
sypkan wrote:

"I'm not really smug about being right"

bahahahahahaha

the parody account continues...

this guy cannot be real

Whatever sypkan. I wish I was wrong about Covid. I wish cases were not surging around the country. It would be great if unvaccinated people were safe from hospitalisations, I wish the virus would stop circulating throughout the community. It would be great for my industry to be back to 100%.

But unlike you, I deal in reality. You just make shit up.

Jelly Flater's picture
Jelly Flater's picture
Jelly Flater Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:25pm

Haha blowin…
Settle down cupcake ;)

The weakest of the weak huff and puff ;)

I’m no muppet slave.
I don’t ‘work’ chasing no dollar…
Keep your assumptions ;);)

Seems like they’re doing wonders for u !

Have you considered your attitude is skewed slightly ever blowin?
No government is really telling you anything of substance…
Any farkn moron can understand this ;)
If you want to obey, rebel, scream from the rooftops or just curl up and implode it’s on you…

Your pretend freedom fighting crusade and pathetic tough guy persona is all an act. So keep on… go hard bloke ;);)

You don’t need to try so hard though ;)
Whatever you reckon covid is and whatever you reckon bout government and society and whatever else is just your own utter confusion bubbling over…

You confused, sad lil pretender ;)

Over my travels before and during this pandemic I can assure you this. You got no idea. You have no direct insight into medical systems nor medical professionals. Fact. It shows ;)

Carry on…

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:29pm
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Jelly Flater wrote:

Haha … gold ;)

Get off the farkn keyboard blowin…

Blowin the anti authoritarian authoritarian anti dictator living in his own mental dictatorship…

Give it a rest …
Look how much time u spend on here ;)
What do u actually do when not rabbiting on about nutbag fantasies and telling everyone else how right u are?!

What a sad existence. When the pandemic eases you can always tell everyone in the real world how u served your purpose by just incessantly talking shit on a computer ;);)

Well done.
Bloke ;);)

Yeah, nah.

Thing is bloke, you know that 40 or 50 hours per week you waste chasing a dollar ? Plus the peripheral hours you waste getting ready for work, commuting to work, worrying about work?

Well I don’t have to do that shit.

So excuse me if YOU think waste MY time bloke , cause I assume you’re a fuvking muppet slave.

Hey…I don’t feel this way about everyone who earns a living. I worked for my money myself, but when some fuck thinks he’s taking the pass out of me cause I only surf or fish or write or read or love or grow or enjoy or fucking whatever for so many hours per day and still have ample time to talk shit on here then they’ve immediately labeled themselves a fucken idiot.

Besides …..the covid bullshit is life altering and affects everyone’s life and the bullshit is relentless and from every direction. I’m not talking about when I’m surfing or walking through the bush or hanging with mates, I mean it’s every time I pick up a newspaper, walk past a TV. It’s the Government telling me I can’t visit my parents in hospital and that I can’t leave the country and that I’ve got to get an injection I don’t want, don’t need and which knocks me on my arse for days. It’s my mates going bankrupt, it’s a copper telling me I have to get back inside my house when I’m standing looking at the ocean with no one else around for kilometres. It’s bullshit control , disruption and the purposeful instilling of needless fear in millions of invulnerable and healthy people.

Fuvk them and fuck you. Do your shitty life your way and keep your opinions on my life to yourself.

Are you drinking?

Nope. I’m on care duty watching the rain fall peacefully into the bush. Wind is pumping onshore and it’s a pretty damn nice day to chill. Got a couple of books on the go ( Lieutenant by Kate Grenville and Dead Fishy by Derek Hansen), might watch a movie later after I’ve done a bit of a stretching/ exercise routine.

You’re greasing up the Penny Farthing ready to inflict yourself on innocent road users tomorrow I assume? Got a big morning strutting your MAMIL suit padded Lycra covered package at eye level of seated cafe patrons causing them to gag coffee through their nostrils as usual?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:29pm
Jelly Flater wrote:

Haha blowin…
Settle down cupcake ;)

The weakest of the weak huff and puff ;)

I’m no muppet slave.
I don’t ‘work’ chasing no dollar…
Keep your assumptions ;);)

Seems like they’re doing wonders for u !

Have you considered your attitude is skewed slightly ever blowin?
No government is really telling you anything of substance…
Any farkn moron can understand this ;)
If you want to obey, rebel, scream from the rooftops or just curl up and implode it’s on you…

Your pretend freedom fighting crusade and pathetic tough guy persona is all an act. So keep on… go hard bloke ;);)

You don’t need to try so hard though ;)
Whatever you reckon covid is and whatever you reckon bout government and society and whatever else is just your own utter confusion bubbling over…

You confused, sad lil pretender ;)

Over my travels before and during this pandemic I can assure you this. You got no idea. You have no direct insight into medical systems nor medical professionals. Fact. It shows ;)

Carry on…

Allow me to channel my inner blowin.
Jelly Fletcher, you're the softcock scared panicker. PANICK. You're weak. FACT.
NeW WorlD OrdeR. Bloody globalists. I know 5 people who have ended up in hospital due to the vaccine.
Softcock Fletcher. bloody MAMILs.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:39pm
Jelly Flater wrote:

Haha blowin…
Settle down cupcake ;)

The weakest of the weak huff and puff ;)

I’m no muppet slave.
I don’t ‘work’ chasing no dollar…
Keep your assumptions ;);)

Seems like they’re doing wonders for u !

Have you considered your attitude is skewed slightly ever blowin?
No government is really telling you anything of substance…
Any farkn moron can understand this ;)
If you want to obey, rebel, scream from the rooftops or just curl up and implode it’s on you…

Your pretend freedom fighting crusade and pathetic tough guy persona is all an act. So keep on… go hard bloke ;);)

You don’t need to try so hard though ;)
Whatever you reckon covid is and whatever you reckon bout government and society and whatever else is just your own utter confusion bubbling over…

You confused, sad lil pretender ;)

Over my travels before and during this pandemic I can assure you this. You got no idea. You have no direct insight into medical systems nor medical professionals. Fact. It shows ;)

Carry on…

What’s with the references to my “ tough guy persona “ I’ve never claimed to be a tough guy. I just cringe when I hear people being absolute chickenshits about a virus which is virtually guaranteed to not kill them. I don’t even care if others want to be irrationally fearful until they start demanding other people act according to their unsubstantiated panic and lives are ruined as a result. I don’t dig the guy who runs up and down Bondi beach all day ordering people out of the water because he mistook a dry clump of seaweed for a submarine sized great white shark and I don’t like Henny Pennys who order everyone to lock inside their house because of a cold which might knock a couple of palliative care 94 year olds off the perch.

I don’t think medical knowledge has much bearing in understanding that locking people in their houses with a curfew is not the way to treat a disease. Nor is refusing Australians the right to,leave Australia.

I do understand statistics and I understand when they’re being misrepresented to instil fear in people.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:40pm
Vic Local wrote:
Jelly Flater wrote:

Haha blowin…
Settle down cupcake ;)

The weakest of the weak huff and puff ;)

I’m no muppet slave.
I don’t ‘work’ chasing no dollar…
Keep your assumptions ;);)

Seems like they’re doing wonders for u !

Have you considered your attitude is skewed slightly ever blowin?
No government is really telling you anything of substance…
Any farkn moron can understand this ;)
If you want to obey, rebel, scream from the rooftops or just curl up and implode it’s on you…

Your pretend freedom fighting crusade and pathetic tough guy persona is all an act. So keep on… go hard bloke ;);)

You don’t need to try so hard though ;)
Whatever you reckon covid is and whatever you reckon bout government and society and whatever else is just your own utter confusion bubbling over…

You confused, sad lil pretender ;)

Over my travels before and during this pandemic I can assure you this. You got no idea. You have no direct insight into medical systems nor medical professionals. Fact. It shows ;)

Carry on…

Allow me to channel my inner blowin.
Jelly Fletcher, you're the softcock scared panicker. PANICK. You're weak. FACT.
NeW WorlD OrdeR. Bloody globalists. I know 5 people who have ended up in hospital due to the vaccine.
Softcock Fletcher. bloody MAMILs.

Your inner Blowin would power spew if he knew he was inside your wretched chickenshit carcass.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:47pm

"I’ve never claimed to be a tough guy."
Jelly Fletcher never said you claimed to be a tough guy you moron. He just mentioned your tough guy persona.
You call others softcocks all the time, say you're not scared, accuse others of being chickenshit and threaten to bash people. If that's not a fragile toxic masculine tough guy persona, nothing is.
Hey Jelly. blowin's tough guy persona is a defence mechanism for being an idiot. He just doesn't want to admit he's wrong so he abuses people instead.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 12:53pm

Viral Atmospherics
Continues from 20th Nov 2021 (Huey's cure)
(Update) NSW Daily Tests results delay increase thru December from 2 > 3 > 3.5 > 4 days.
https://www.swellnet.com/comment/777903
Weather notes exampled short bursts of arid Westerly Updrafts lipid Covid up into yer nostrils.
UV Humid Seabreeze ladens Covid & neutralizes the virus to fall to the ground. (Crew salutes Huey!)

Big Oz city outbreaks are ruled by the weather & none can control that apart from sudden warnings!
Update hits the ground runnin' with more of the same medicine good or bad.

Sydney (tbb argued that Delta relief came in the form of seabreezes, less so a spell of high Humidity)
Not strictly Scientific, but it is exactly what nuked Sydney's Delta Beastie.
https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/08/18/low-humidity-incr...

Good News : Further research is a variation on the theme (Weather Dependent)
Reason being that Summer (La Nina) Rain drives hordes inside at once as does a Blizzard or UV..
So not one or the other but more Weather related warnings for Covid. (Again not best science!)

Note it only takes a short sharp shock to revive the Virus...not goin anywhere in a hurry!
BOM : 28th Nov Humidity 56% dipped below Sydney Covid Threshold of 57% (Covid party time!)
Not surprisingly bundled the virus & doubled cases by early Dec 2/300's then tempered by Seabreezes.
Moderate Seabreezes level out covid at 200-300 cases/day (Note: Enough to reduce a Delta wave?)

Dec.(Overview) Equal Offshore < > Seabreeze (Unusual for Sydney Summer but ideal for Covid)
5th SSW doubled cases by 8th (This time, sadly with only 1 day seabreeze respite)
7/8th Westerly spell doubled cases again by 10/11th now rising into the 500's (1 day Seabreeze only!)
(*day rain) *8 / 9 / *10 / 11th > *8th 20% spike on 11th + *10th + Westerly (Double bump) by 14th 800

Pushing into 4 day test results

*10th Dec (Min Temp + Max Rain + N/W 56km) > Omicron launch pad > re: see 15th 1,000's/day
10th- 15th ( Wicked Witch from the West casts her Omicron Spell ) Mass Vax Massacre! (No Joke!)
(4 day test results) > 14th 800 >15th 1,347 > 16th 1,738 > 17th 2,199 > 18th 2,468 > 19th 2,588

Perfect Storm coincides Sydney Mass Vax Wane rise @ 3 months...most cases were double vaccinated.

16th > 18th Neither Humidity nor Seabreeze stoked up enough to Bully out the Covid Matmos
17th (Arvo) Westerly Howled @ 31 kms (Covid Fuel) by 21st into the 3,000's/day
18th -22nd (Again) Neither Humidity nor Seabreeze can stoke enough to Bully out the Covid Matmos.
*23rd -26th *Very Humid Morning + a run of wafty Seabreeze & mild humidity stalls the case load.
27th Brisk South Westerly Temp drop could / should see an up tick by 31st Dec into the New Year
Notes:
Run of 4 days / Moderate seabreezes or a string of 90% Humid days should save Sydney again!
(Just repeating that a NSW 4 day delay is currently advised for results...hence the 4 days in forecast)

Timetable matches Weather Dates to prescribed 4 day offset Test cases with best updates as shown.
Whatever the crew reads more into it...(Test Delays / Weather well that's a bonus!)
tbb is trying to keep it as real as we know it to be for Sydney > each city is different!

Any contradiction in Wet'n'Dry lipids can be explained by ionized charged particles > in Storms.
Just saying that ultra Humid Electrical storms would likewise disperse Covid more wildly.
tbb pointed to European Outbreaks were under a bitter cold snap, near nations...were in the Sun.

Govt give weather warnings for UV / Heat / Dust / Smoke / Pathogens / Flu Season. (Not unusual!)
2020 NSW Health records 1% decrease in Humidity could increase Covid by 6.11%
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/tbed.13631

Dec 2020 US measure is only a random sample: (Impacts attributed to each weather type!)
Oz Humidity 9.35% Temp 3.73% UV 4.44% > ( No Rain / Salt air or Storms / Snow etc)
Both of these studies gauged a much slower sparser virus as to Today's City destroying Monsters.

Lockdowns reduced Lightning by 50%
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2015/11/30/ride-lightnin...

Timetable / Data always charts instant higher Viral load from Cold low humidity + Dry winds.
Westerly / Storms rush people into huddled virulent makeshift shelters with no social distancing.
Tip! Allow 2 days stiff seabreeze (& / or) 2 days of High 90% Humidity to neutralize or detox yer City.

Happy Holidays...tbb will try & rustle up a Melbourne Chart (All agree! Sydney was priority!)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/202112/html/IDCJDW2124.202112.shtml
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/nsw

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 1:32pm

On this thread alone Blowin has posted 23 times since 8am. By my calculation he is running at better than one every 13 minutes. He should be on the payroll, if he isn't already. Click, click, click

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 1:33pm
blindboy wrote:

On this thread alone Blowin has posted 23 times since 8am. By my calculation he is running at better than one every 13 minutes.

Gonna be hard for him to get through those books that he purports to be reading if he has to put them down to type hot garbage 100 times a day.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 1:43pm

Attorney. “Your Honour…the evidence speaks volumes, I rest my case.”
Judge. “Defence, please present your case”
Defence. “Your Honour…she is a woman” I rest my case.”
Judge. “Release the defendant now. Ma'am, I’m terribly sorry for this misunderstand. The law is an ass. You are a woman.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10348567/PICTURED-Foul-mouthed-...

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 1:47pm

Reality check
"An FBI source told DailyMail.com that Cornwall is due for an initial hearing on Monday at the Federal Courthouse in Atlanta "

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 2:40pm

“Not all of those cases are going to be severe. In fact many are going to be asymptomatic,” she told The Associated Press on Monday. “We want to make sure there is a mechanism by which we can safely continue to keep society functioning while following the science.” https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-health-... Follow the science . F8882-B71-FCD6-4836-8-F6-F-C628-BFC4-C6-BE

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 3:08pm

""Look, there is no federal solution," 

...well that's a turnaround in narrative...

seems biden has just about given up

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/look-there-no-federal-solution-biden-...

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 3:38pm
goofyfoot wrote:
billythekid wrote:

BD who cares about scrutinising the development of the pfizer vaccine? All that matters is how well it works. Which it does. As many studies have shown. A 2 second google search is all it takes. Here's one of many. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/02/03/2021.02.01.2125...

I dont understand it cos I'm not smart enough and or educated enough. But then neither are you. You wouldn't try to outthink the guy fixing the computer bullshit on your car, but it blows me away that all sorts of people think they can outthink the best scientific minds in the world and see something they're all missing. My sisters have been caught up in your bullshit. One of them, in her mid sixties, is literally risking her life over it. And its always focusing on Pfizer, Fauci and big Farma - like Fauci wouldn't be making triple the money working in private industry. If youre paranoid about it, take AZ!!

Well said.
I think BD had a couple of mid-strengths last night and got excited

Ahhh piss off Goofyfooter with your cheap shots. They were bloody full strengths!! Coopers Reds! I'll try to be good now :-P

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 3:53pm

Recall from last review Melbourne Covid Climate was left wanting a seachange.
20th Nov https://www.swellnet.com/comment/777903
All crew know that Melbourne are going nowhere fast but that may yield benefits.
From the point of view of Climate Measures the chart will be hard pressed to reveal any impact.
Victoria Health also stretched Test results from 2 to now 3 days (Stretching to 4 on data)
https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/getting-your-results-covid-19#how-lon...

Having said that, we can instantly gauge Test date timing for Vic start point for Weather Chart.
26-27th Nov Bookend S/E winds knock 10% off 29/30th 3 figures but end with low 39% Humidity.
So we can instantly get into the groove...no brainer!

Dec starts here in Vic's case Winds shift to N & cases rise steadily

30th Nov / 1st Dec > Bookend Lowest humidity but high heat temporarily drops cases > 3rd Dec
Low humidity wins out to ramp cases by 4th Dec (Tricky fast seesaw ride & more of that ahead!)
*2nd/*3rd Dec (*Southerly Rain) raises the Humidity to drop cases on the 5th
6th Dec Strong Northerlies drop humidity & ramp cases on 8/9th
7th Southerlies again raise Humidity to lower cases from 10th > 12th
8th-13th Southerlies continue but Humidity drops 10% daily that rises cases daily to the 16th > 1,600
13th low 26% humidity > SW winds rise Humidity fast to 85% on 15/16th drop cases 19th 1,200.

17/18th Winds draw to North with max High am Temp min low 32% Humidity > rising cases

19th Melbourne's wacky reverse weather > SW 65km buster with min pm Temp + max Humidity

(Pause!) Think tbb recalls from earlier model that the sudden switch favours Covid more than not.
Could be that the swift change gets it more airborne > like a kite...happy for input on that one!
Additional >>> From here readers 'Could' advance 3 days to 4 if this reflects the "Natural Climate"
That's more of a fair pointed observation...needs to said to reflect fast moving nature of Tests!

From 19th > this is exactly wot happened in all manner...Covid ramped up a gear...22nd Dec >1,500
tbb is happy with that fit as it reflects the violent change in weather. (Resembles past switches as said)
20th NW humidity drops 50% to ramp cases by 23rd to 2,000
21st wind switch to SW/E very slowly eases Humidity up over days as winds turn light to moderate
22nd am Humidity Spike 72% possibly accounts for cases drop on 26th 1,500
23/24/25th S/W 4km were lowest of Dec > Covid likes that as well...(No Resistance) 28th peak.
26/27th a slight bump in Southerlies but could be changing to North with Humidity falling > (Rise?)
So it seems like Covid rises to New Year but Vic Weather could flip that by days end...Locals call!

Ok! tbb won't say that was an easy way to track or forecast Covid....bloody Hard Work!
Readers can see it was laboured but tbb never went off the rails...so there's that! (just hung in there!)
Not sure if one could say it's 100% convincing, only that it reflects Vic Health test info / BOM data.

Again! This is not backed by science...merely weather observations.
Quite obvious to all that Vic needs a timetable more than any but equally it would change daily?
If any here can predict Vic weather for tomorrow then maybe a Covid Weather Chart might assist!

In that event...Vic Health & BOM would need to be 110% in-sync.
Can't see it costing much...& would deliver as well or better than most other daily Covid data.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/202112/html/IDCJDW3033.202112.shtml
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/vic
Happy Holidays Victoria.

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 4:16pm

small business living with covid conditions:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/out-of-proportion-small-businesses-hi...

"“What we’re hearing from people is that a fairly large number of those in the hospitality and events industries are making the decision not to open at this period of time at all,” she said.

A single employee who worked a single shift could potentially trigger a complete two-week shutdown of the business, Ms Boyd said. Meanwhile, an employee waiting for their PCR results may be unable to work for several days as they await results.

“Everyone is experiencing [staff] shortages, big and small … every industry is screaming out for workers.”"

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 6:56pm
bluediamond wrote:
goofyfoot wrote:
billythekid wrote:

BD who cares about scrutinising the development of the pfizer vaccine? All that matters is how well it works. Which it does. As many studies have shown. A 2 second google search is all it takes. Here's one of many. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/02/03/2021.02.01.2125...

I dont understand it cos I'm not smart enough and or educated enough. But then neither are you. You wouldn't try to outthink the guy fixing the computer bullshit on your car, but it blows me away that all sorts of people think they can outthink the best scientific minds in the world and see something they're all missing. My sisters have been caught up in your bullshit. One of them, in her mid sixties, is literally risking her life over it. And its always focusing on Pfizer, Fauci and big Farma - like Fauci wouldn't be making triple the money working in private industry. If youre paranoid about it, take AZ!!

Well said.
I think BD had a couple of mid-strengths last night and got excited

Ahhh piss off Goofyfooter with your cheap shots. They were bloody full strengths!! Coopers Reds! I'll try to be good now :-P

Ha! I'd hate to see you on the Bundys then..

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 7:06pm

Careful what you wish for Goofy! I've got a bottle of vodka, a broken heart and the surfs shit. But i'll tryyy to be good!

saltyone's picture
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saltyone Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 10:24pm

For the record -

Questioning and doubting the most historically corrupt and fraudulent companies in the WORLD does not make you “anti” anything. Nor does it make you a conspiracy theorist. Actually, questioning IS, and should be, the place of reason. The fact that questioning has become so taboo, should, in fact , send a chill up everyone’s spine.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 10:44pm

I’m calling it. NSW covid testing has collapsed. It no longer functions. If there isn’t 10,000 daily new cases by NYE it’s because the results aren’t coming through, not because covid isn’t there. Hospital system in NSW will become dysfunctional soon.
Hazzard blaming Anna P for the shit show in NSW is a joke. No attempt to solve the problem, he’s just blame shifting. Scumo gone MIA re Rats. A complete LNP farce.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 11:51pm

Even diehard pro-vaxxers are over this shit show.

They're over the fear mongering, the self-serving political grandstanding and the lack of a cohesive narrative.

Most of all they're pissed off with there being no end in sight, despite the fact that for the vast, vast majority these viruses pose no real threat.

I wager that the next anti-lockdown rally will be joined by large numbers of pro-vaxxers who feel like they've been bullshitted and treated with a certain degree of contempt by the pollies.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 12:25am

"Most of all they're pissed off with there being no end in sight, despite the fact that for the vast, vast majority these viruses pose no real threat."

question is... why is it like that? ....still?

political opportunism?

scared of change?

too risk averse?

scared of breaking it to public?

scared of backlash?

'bureacratic inertia'?

lack of preparedness?

oz must be experiencing the slowest rolling - yet somehow impossibly at the same time, most haphazard - winding back of restrictions in the world....

all with through the roof vaccination rates, and a 2 year prep. time

and shitshow it is...

and it seems no one is happy!

how did it come to this?

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 1:06am

So the question now, must be, was it worth getting double/triple vaccinated?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 1:47am

my immediate answer to that bluediamond is yes... to the double bit anyway...

it allowed me to live in a community for a period where corona was totally rife for a while there, with some peace of mind... however, if they think Im going to be signing up for 3 monthly boosters for a virus waning in virility and associated danger, and therefore waning in their loose justification for a vaccination at all... they're fucking dreaming...

the initial stages of restrictions were worth it, and their dodgy vaccine (that isn't really a vaccine...) but seems justified under emergency conditions was worth it...

but the ongoing restrictions, heavy handedness, righteousness, censorship, and general undermining of our whole democratic system, and the associated divesiveness that caused... definitely doesn't seem worth it, or even remotely justified at this point in time...

the power trippers, the wealthy and connected, the authoritarians, and the righteous, all just totally lost their heads for a while there it seems...

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 1:37am

when the minion mouthpieces at the compliant and servile vox are saying it's done.... the pandemic is well and truly done...

https://www.vox.com/22850742/omicron-covid-junior-year-resignation-fatig...

some dumb cunts just dragged it all out way tooooo long

for whatever reasons...

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 1:43am

Thanks Sypkan. So from what i get from the gist of your post is it allowed you certain freedoms, however i'm curious if you think it saved lives/stopped the spread/did all the things it was purported to do. I can imagine there's possbily millions of Australians wondering the same thing right now...did all we were asked, took one for the team.....still lost everything...and going by current covid trends, it hasn't made one iota of difference.
And yep...i know there'll be some very valid arguments against that statement. But i guarantee alot of people aren't seeing it that way right now.
Not to mention all the unmentionables about the vaccines and big pharma and the government buying so many doses with a use by date that had to be used....

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 2:00am

"Thanks Sypkan. So from what i get from the gist of your post is it allowed you certain freedoms, however i'm curious if you think it saved lives/stopped the spread/did all the things it was purported to do."

it most certainly didn't do all it was purported to do... I'd say it definitely saved some lives, and helped some avoid major illness... but as to the scale and efficacy of that?

I think we will never know...

the pro vax bridgade will say the vax did it all

the anti-vax bridgade will say it did fuck all

I look to the experiences of countries like india, indonesia, and africa... and think the benefits were negligable and there clearly were alternatives...

" I can imagine there's possbily millions of Australians wondering the same thing right now...did all we were asked, took one for the team.....still lost everything...and going by current covid trends, it hasn't made one iota of difference."

pretty much the gist of that vox article...

when the machine's minion propaganda-ists like vox are presenting such a deflated hopeless picture... ya gotta think we were sold a lemon...

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 2:19am

Cheers sypkan. Well balanced and considered response. Appreciated. Yep, we'll never really know.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 7:56am

@Bluediamond, yes we do know. Vaccines are clearly helping keep people out of hospitals greatly improving their own health outcomes and all those other people that also need hospitals today.
Only 5% aren’t vaccinated

You know vodka and ciggies both cause cancer right?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 8:48am

approximate 90% of covid admissions in Vic hospitals are unvaxxed. Vic vaccination rates are over 90%. But tell us again how vaccines don't work.
sypkan. You're being a goose.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:08am

11,000 new cases in NSW. But tell us again how the LET IT RIP crew got it right. Testing has collapsed and there's a massive RAT shortage. This doesn't end well, but I'm sure this shitshow is somehow the expert's fault and not caused by LNP incompetence.
If you're surfing and get a fin chop to the leg, you'd be better off stitching yourself up than presenting to ER over the next week or two.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:26am

Let it rip is the only option, you are not stronger than nature

Do you want me to lose my home so your wife doesn’t have to deal with busy shifts? Is that what you think is best?

My record shift is 26.5hrs, and I am proud of it. Attitude is everything under pressure. Marathon runners will happily tell you it’s 90% a mental game

Your wife has an opportunity to become a hero

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:35am

11,000 new cases but how many require hospitalisation?

Lots of Covid around here but bugger all sting to it.

I think that Vox article is off-track - I'm not seeing "grief, burnout or trauma", or even much fear (don't even start me on the media's role in stirring up shit).

People are frustrated and pretty fucking angry with politicians. People know they're being played for mugs and they know there's no end in sight.
They're double vaxxed but they're not going to stand for endless boosters and domestic travel restrictions imposed at the drop of a hat.

Snuffy Smith's picture
Snuffy Smith's picture
Snuffy Smith Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:38am

Strong, virulent and a bloke's bloke.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:44am
shoredump wrote:

Let it rip is the only option, you are not stronger than nature

Do you want me to lose my home so your wife doesn’t have to deal with busy shifts? Is that what you think is best?

My record shift is 26.5hrs, and I am proud of it. Attitude is everything under pressure. Marathon runners will happily tell you it’s 90% a mental game

Your wife has an opportunity to become a hero

You're a fucking moron SD. Perrottet has let the virus rip with virtually no planning for the consequences of his actions.
We now have a situation where people have massive problems trying to find out if they have covid or not. Cases will go through the roof over the next month.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:49am

AndyM - “ People are frustrated and pretty fucking angry with politicians. People know they're being played for mugs and they know there's no end in sight.
They're double vaxxed but they're not going to stand for endless boosters and domestic travel restrictions imposed at the drop of a hat.”

This is 100% the feeling I get now when I talk to mates, family, work colleagues etc.
People have had enough of rules constantly changing without valid reasons, getting played like fools, and generally just treated like shit from the government. We’ve done the right thing, now let us fucking live

Alana_a's picture
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Alana_a Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 9:52am

Thank god for gladdy and now perrottet.
If not for nsw we’d still be in lockdown here in vic.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 10:07am

Think of how everyone is existing just fine with the DEATH PLAGUE circulating freely throughout society and then remember when Dan Andrews put 1.2 million rural Victorians under house arrest and curfew because some Wuflu particles were ( allegedly) found in the sewer at Whangarrata . Not even any “cases”.

That was on top of shutting the entirety of Melbourne- destroying business, ruining lives , separating loved ones , denying access to critics medical treatment for non-covid issues - because of less than a handful of “cases”. A fucking curfew for perfectly healthy adults !

Exact same virus.

Political opportunism by a wok-eyed madman.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/regional-victoria-joins-m...

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 10:03am

You may remember I called the collapse a week ago. I agree there’s been seemingly zero foresight, and the back peddling has already begun. Knowing you have covid or not is now unimportant anyway, the virus is sweeping over us and all that matters are the hospitalisation numbers. Take a deep breath.
10 years ago I took up part time labouring to keep fit. 2 years ago I started an immune building regime. On the first day I was eligible I got vaxxed. In September I gave up alcohol. I’m no moron.
Preparation is king