COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Think about this quote from VIC Local for a second. He has a problem with allowing people to assume self responsibility for a virus that is SO DEADLY that people don’t even know if they have it.
“We now have a situation where people have massive problems trying to find out if they have covid or not“
It was all too recently that these criminally vociferous fear mongers were so emboldened to incite their irrational fears through community at the top of their lungs. People like this really need to face consequences for their actions when you consider what society has been put through for the last two years.
Two quick questions for the let it rip mob. You head to your favourite coffee shop for lunch. One of the staff members has covid, knows they have covid, came to work, didn't wear a mask and you got covid from them. You're unlucky and end up in hospital, and pass it on to family members. Are you cool with that or do you sue them for failing to protect their customers?
Situation 2. Your elderly parents need elective surgery to fix a dodgy knee that has been giving them grief for years. Are you cool with letting them get the op in a hospital rife with covid, or would you prefer postponing their surgery leaving them in pain?
We are now entering a situation where people need to make the least shit choices. But hey, let it rip and ignore the consequences eh. She'll be right!!
Fuck you lot are stupid.
Vic Local wrote:Two quick questions for the let it rip mob. You head to your favourite coffee shop for lunch. One of the staff members has covid, knows they have covid, came to work, didn't wear a mask and you got covid from them. You're unlucky and end up in hospital, and pass it on to family members. Are you cool with that or do you sue them for failing to protect their customers?
Situation 2. Your elderly parents need elective surgery to fix a dodgy knee that has been giving them grief for years. Are you cool with letting them get the op in a hospital rife with covid, or would you prefer postponing their surgery leaving them in pain?
We are now entering a situation where people need to make the least shit choices. But hey, let it rip and ignore the consequences eh. She'll be right!!
Fuck you lot are stupid.
Answer your own question but replace the word “covid “ with “the flu” and you’ll get an idea of where you are going wrong.
Let it go bloke. Your fantasy movie has ended and you are emerging from the cinema into the harsh sunlight of reality.
I’m pro-vaccine VicLocal, and I can certainly see that they reduce illness. In terms of reduced transmission we don’t really know how they compare to other vaccines because no other transmissible disease has been tested so extensively.
So therefore, the herd immunity has been reached of sorts because the hospital case numbers are down.
The questionable bit in my opinion is the large scale testing, often on asymptomatic or low symptom cases and because of various mandatory requirements for work and travel.
For example, if no testing occurred, only that which was indicated by a doctor diagnosing a patient then the cases would be very low.
The real test of the vaccines is how much they do in fact reduce illness and whether they achieve what is considered “traditional” herd immunity ie 80-90% vaccinated protecting the rest.
What’s more, the need for early boosters will be interesting to observe. Some people may get 3 doses in roughly 5 months which I think is unheard of in other vaccines, and potentially 4 in one year.
My advice is that if you get it speak to your doctor about early in home treatments. I’m not a fan of the sit home and wait and see how sick you get approach
NSW health has officially said that if you are under 65 and not obese or in extreme chronic ill he’s you should not attend hospital if you test positive for covid as you are considered safe.
Exact same virus as a year ago.
What’s changed?
Vic Local wrote:Two quick questions for the let it rip mob. You head to your favourite coffee shop for lunch. One of the staff members has covid, knows they have covid, came to work, didn't wear a mask and you got covid from them. You're unlucky and end up in hospital, and pass it on to family members. Are you cool with that or do you sue them for failing to protect their customers?
Situation 2. Your elderly parents need elective surgery to fix a dodgy knee that has been giving them grief for years. Are you cool with letting them get the op in a hospital rife with covid, or would you prefer postponing their surgery leaving them in pain?
We are now entering a situation where people need to make the least shit choices. But hey, let it rip and ignore the consequences eh. She'll be right!!
Fuck you lot are stupid.
Sue them?? What is that about vic? Fk there’s some sad humans getting around.
1- yeah I am cool with that. That’s the way it has always been. Try replacing the word COVID with flu or a cold. Then read it back to yourself.
2 - yeah because the staff shortages have everything to do with the anti vax people… let’s not forget nurses and doctors being forced to stand down and the stress that has placed on the system. Probably a lot more then COVID itself.
Here is the bloke responsible for the narrative used to justify UK’s ( and consequently the US and Australia’s ) draconian Covid strategy.
He released this “ modelling “ which sent the UK back into restrictions with more to come.
Prof Neil Ferguson has been so wrong about every disease he has modelled through his entire career, it's a complete mystery why anyone would still take him seriously.
— Julia Hartley-Brewer (@JuliaHB1) December 12, 2021
Tell me just how badly YOU would have to be at YOUR job before you'd be sacked. pic.twitter.com/hGJ1UN4j10
His “modelling “ was based on the tens of thousands of case data statistics supplied by the South African health officials. The data had a larger sample than that used to establish the Pfizer efficacy during trials, which was consequently accepted as truth worldwide, yet the “modelling “ by this clown was still utterly ridiculous and unrecognisable to the original data set.
And yet the UK politicians followed the advice of the modeller instead of the extensive real world data. Despite the modeller’s record of extreme inaccuracies. Why?
https://twitter.com/Doom_Loop/status/1471917658236928010?s=20
Vic Local wrote:Two quick questions for the let it rip mob. You head to your favourite coffee shop for lunch. One of the staff members has covid, knows they have covid, came to work, didn't wear a mask and you got covid from them. You're unlucky and end up in hospital, and pass it on to family members. Are you cool with that or do you sue them for failing to protect their customers?
Situation 2. Your elderly parents need elective surgery to fix a dodgy knee that has been giving them grief for years. Are you cool with letting them get the op in a hospital rife with covid, or would you prefer postponing their surgery leaving them in pain?
We are now entering a situation where people need to make the least shit choices. But hey, let it rip and ignore the consequences eh. She'll be right!!
Fuck you lot are stupid.
I guess we are going to find out VL.
Note the complete lack of empathy, place has turned into a dog pack in operation some thing noted during the Spanish Flu pandemic.
@VL
In March 2020 I was arguing with @IB that everyone will get it and here you are two years later still thinking it’s not coming for you. To answer your questions, yes have already had the conversation with mum and she knows like I do it’s unfair to put guilt on the eventual carrier. You really need to work on yourself there, I mean, are you saying it’s okay for family members to sue you for passing it on or just for you to sue the poor cafe worker. The second question, of course delay elective surgery, this is one of the peak waves of a pandemic. Stupid question.
By the way, there’s no luck in being healthy and vaccinated . If you want to talk freak occurrences, what are you going to do if a coconut falls on your head in Indonesia? Are you going to sue the camp, or perhaps should you plan not to go in the first place.
This sounds like panic to me
I Focus :
“Note the complete lack of empathy, place has turned into a dog pack in operation some thing noted during the Spanish Flu pandemic.“
What are you on about bloke ? Lack of empathy? For who ? For the tens of thousands of people who were meant to be on death’s door but who only have a headache and the sniffles?
Spanish Flu?
Fuck mate, you’re so deep in the DEATH PLAGUE fantasy that you don’t even recognise the reality when it’s shoved in front of your face.
Tens of thousands of people have your death plague and it’s less onerous than a bad flu season. Literally less people in hospital than if the equivalent number of people caught the flu. Yet still you’re holding onto your breath with fear , such is the entrenched propaganda within you.
shoredump wrote:@VL
In March 2020 I was arguing with @IB that everyone will get it and here you are two years later still thinking it’s not coming for you. To answer your questions, yes have already had the conversation with mum and she knows like I do it’s unfair to put guilt on the eventual carrier. You really need to work on yourself there. The second question, of course delay elective surgery, this is one of the peak waves of a pandemic. Stupid question.By the way, there’s no luck in being healthy and vaccinated
Everyone won’t get it.
That’s another filthy lie.
The gaslighting is so thick that you need to Wade through it all.
Blowin wrote:shoredump wrote:@VL
In March 2020 I was arguing with @IB that everyone will get it and here you are two years later still thinking it’s not coming for you. To answer your questions, yes have already had the conversation with mum and she knows like I do it’s unfair to put guilt on the eventual carrier. You really need to work on yourself there. The second question, of course delay elective surgery, this is one of the peak waves of a pandemic. Stupid question.By the way, there’s no luck in being healthy and vaccinated
Everyone won’t get it.
That’s another filthy lie.
The gaslighting is so thick that you need to Wade through it all.
Mate, I’ve had the Spanish flu 4 or 5 times already. I stand by my comment
Vic Local wrote:I’m calling it. NSW covid testing has collapsed. It no longer functions. If there isn’t 10,000 daily new cases by NYE it’s because the results aren’t coming through, not because covid isn’t there. Hospital system in NSW will become dysfunctional soon.
Hahahaha, ah Vic, we all know how your predictions pan out. They actually fizzle.
90% of Vic Health infected Patients are Vaxed & treated at home @ $16,000 2/wks by o/s Telehealth.
Covid Telehealth = (30% Chinese + 70% IT / Big Pharma / Bit Coin / Mining Corps)
tbb has never read of Govt Home Care Covid recovery including unvaxed...not gonna happen!
No Oz Govt will treat Unvaxed at home..."Non Consenting infected" would flee to infect a litigating VIP.
Breaky TV recites Hospital promo stats of "Only ever Non Vaxed" + same decaying 65+ Breakthrus.
Homecare is strictly reserved for Fully Vaxed VIPs or (No risk) 1 dosed under 65 years.
It's risky enough for Home Vaxerz to be transferred Mid treatment to Hospital & many die at home!
Home "Contacts" consult Medicare GP/ Specialists that keep 90% State Vaxed patients off the charts.
Never read Covid sufferers referred to as Patients...that's the whole point (Their own private hell!)
CHO's are gearing up to only chart Hospital Unvaxed / risk / Vaxed 65+...to bury ongoing Vax carnage.
Consent Form that tbb mentioned...
{ I understand all info on endless linked Govt Web pages & all their infinite links } sign .....X
[ People with severe immunocompromise "may" require "a" 3rd Primary Dose...]
[ People aged 18 or over "can" have "a" Booster Dose 4 months or more after their primary course...]
[ "I agree" to receive "a" Booster ] Meaning : Aussies are entitled to 1 Booster Only!
Hang on! ( When did I agree to 4 Month Booster Shot...No! You couldn't have as it never existed! Right!)
Notice the changes > May > Can > I agree > to Booster Shot...vaxerz are being pump primed!
( I Agree to a Booster) can also be read as I agree to the next & next & forever Mandating vaxes!
Last Updated 24th Dec 2021. (Vaxerz might wanna check on [ Update: I Agree to '4 month' Booster ]
tbb is saying that Govt autobots update your {Consent Form} without your consent?
Note that 5 -12 years have been inserted...Booster upgrades 'may' be in breach of yer original consent!
This is serious shit people...not sure if a Govt can fuck you over by forging yer original consent contract.
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/12/covid-19...
Meaning any "Mandated" or not ...4th Dose is "Currently" in breach of Contract...(Correct!)
Phase 1/2/Boosted Aussies need to sign a new Consent form for #4 Vax/Vote Poll Boost Booth (Shh!)
Don't Panic! : Govt will simply forge yer Consent form without yer Consent...just like the 3rd Dose! Ok!
11,201 cases today. The doubling time now is a week or less. In my extended family we have had 6 identified as close contacts since Boxing Day, with 3 still waiting for their test results. The other 3 were clear. Locally there are reports of a super spreading event on Xmas Eve at a local hospitality venue. Personally I am happy to take my chances but the pressure on hospitals is rising rapidly. Politics, rather than health policy, drove the opening up for the Xmas/New Year period but the timing could not have been worse in terms of the spread of the virus.
I’m required to supply a PCR within 72hrs of my start date on Monday
Haha HNY!
fitzroy-21 wrote:Vic Local wrote:I’m calling it. NSW covid testing has collapsed. It no longer functions. If there isn’t 10,000 daily new cases by NYE it’s because the results aren’t coming through, not because covid isn’t there. Hospital system in NSW will become dysfunctional soon.
Hahahaha, ah Vic, we all know how your predictions pan out. They actually fizzle.
WTF are you on about Fitzroy?
Testing has collapsed. Getting a second rate RAT test is nigh on impossible because Scumo failed to procure them, and it's taking days sometimes weeks to get the results of normal tests. The results in many cases are out of date before the person taking the test even gets them.
New cases HAVE hit 10,000 already. So far my predictions have been spot on.
1.2% of active cases end up in hospital (which are already at breaking point) and the number of active cases has been skyrocketing.
Have you been drinking? I hope so because drunkeness would be a suitable excuse not to see the bleeding obvious.
It wasn't a prediction from you Vic, it was Captain Fucken Obvious.
The curve was always showing that 10000 would be reached within days.
A 5 year old could have predicted that...
More small business reporting, this time for Sydney NYE:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-locking-itself-down-thousands...
"“At the moment we lose close to 80 per cent of bookings every day, thankfully 50 per cent are re-booked because we’re the only place open, but the loss is still at least 30 per cent,” Mr Fikkers said, crediting the bounce back to a loyal customer base and the fact many other nearby restaurants have been forced to close.
“With the rules constantly changing people are terrified and honestly can you blame them?” he said.
“As soon as [the NSW Government] got rid of masks and QR codes people stopped coming. Now those rules are back, but it’s too late and consumer confidence is gone.”"
I also note the MCG Boxing Day test crowd number, 53K on day one, 42K day two and I'd have to guess a little less on day 3 (missed a phenomenal session and the reverse-phoenix death-again of English cricket...) Pretty sure the venue holds a lot more, did they reduce tickets available?
The point I'm trying to make is that by opening up/ripping it, there may be unintended consequences for small business. Larger business, if US is anything to go by, should be fine/pick up market share.
Sypkan above re: 2 vaccines/3 vaccines, tend to agree. There will be a point where all management of it tends to 'fuck it'.
Vic Local wrote:approximate 90% of covid admissions in Vic hospitals are unvaxxed. Vic vaccination rates are over 90%. But tell us again how vaccines don't work.
sypkan. You're being a goose.
I didn't say vaccines don't work
learn to read... goose
vicvocal gold...
“We now have a situation where people have massive problems trying to find out if they have covid or not“
the question for you vicmoron... is how long are you willing to funnel billions of dollars of much needed resources to a non event?
you sure seem hell bent on making certain sectors of society wealthy for doing very little...
all the wrong certain sectors
I thought I'd also throw this one into the thread, even though it's not directly about how the hospital system is coping:
https://www.bca.com.au/we_must_hold_our_nerve_to_stay_on_a_path_to_growth
This one is from the business council of Australia, and despite them having some good initiatives (eg the 'living on borrowed time' initiative which focusses on raising productivity) I feel that in this article 'let it rip' is just stage one, to a resumption to everything that was going on before - huge population growth, huge numbers of visas, huge international student intake - all of which she mentions in the article. Many people posting here over the last few years quite rightly pointed out the costs to legacy Australians from these policies, and the silliness of basing economic growth on a population ponzi (as productivity falls, as it has been measured doing so since 2012). So I think you shouldn't be surprised if that freedom rally you went to turns into 400,000 extra people into NSW each year. Not quite what they were rallying for, methinks. And I can see great strain in Australia's world-class, universal healthcare system as a direct consequence of policies like these being adopted at this stage of the pandemic.
Anyway, happy NY everyone, have a great 2022.
"The point I'm trying to make is that by opening up/ripping it, there may be unintended consequences for small business"
Exactly VJ.
I saw real confidence coming back into the events sector and ran a bunch of smaller events in December and quoted multiple large events in the first quarter of 2022. That confidence has now evaporated because the Let it Rip mob got their way.
If you calmly and rationally look at this situation, some of the decision making from Perrottet and Scumo has been frighteningly incompetent. Top of the list would be the failure to order RATs and the removal of QR codes and mask wearing. Just idiotic.
The events industry could have operated at 50% if the rules were loosened in a sensible manner. Now we have 100% of nothing. Fuck I loathe the incompetent cunts in the LNP who have manufactured this farce.
sypkan wrote:Vic Local wrote:approximate 90% of covid admissions in Vic hospitals are unvaxxed. Vic vaccination rates are over 90%. But tell us again how vaccines don't work.
sypkan. You're being a goose.I didn't say vaccines don't work
learn to read... goose
You banged on and on about vaccines and finished your post with "ya gotta think we were sold a lemon..." Maybe you should write a little clearer goose.
Possibly good news in NSW that the hospitalisation rate is still low despite arrival of omicron. With the recent surge in cases there will be a lag and hospitalisation rates will go up but maybe the government has fluked a win with omicron.
Dodged the more dangerous delta, won more time to develop appropriate treatments and then omicron appearing so far to have less associated disease. Fingers crossed, although Covid continues to throw curve balls.
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I’m struggling to see the point in mass testing unless all those who test positive are contact traced and under protocol to self isolate.
And then, at this rate, the whole of Sydney will be back in lockdown in a week or so.
What’s the point of being 80+% vaxxed if every positive has to self isolate, even the double vaxxed who are asymptomatic?
It seems obvious that the vaccinations will not achieve herd immunity in the traditional sense but are very good at reducing severity of illness.
Maybe time for a paradigm shift?
Drop mandatory workplace/travel testing, test only those who present to a doctor or hospital with symptoms, give boosters to whoever wants them and massively ramp up early at hone treatment
Vic Local wrote:Have you been drinking? I hope so because drunkeness would be a suitable excuse not to see the bleeding obvious.
Yep, it's 1045 and I'm on my seventh beer. Barp.
Now, what's your excuse?...
Vic Local wrote:Exactly VJ.
I saw real confidence coming back into the events sector and ran a bunch of smaller events in December and quoted multiple large events in the first quarter of 2022. That confidence has now evaporated because the Let it Rip mob got their way.
You know my 2c is free here on Swellnet VL, (caveat emptor lol) but have you considered running an event where everyone wears the full body condom I mentioned upthread? Imagine one with a bouncy castle (all OH&S and prep done properly).
@Tyler, yeah I think the mass testing days also need revising. The massive use of resources in people, disposable PPE, lab time and money is crazy. Pulling health care workers away from other jobs so they can manually collect data at testing clinics is a waste.
A question for all, have any of you balanced the books for a hospitality venue? (VL: yes obviously). I used to sit in as my partner did, I could see the earnings, the staff costs, less rent, plus drink sales etc and the overall profit and got a pretty good picture of it over time and the yield potential. How would it look to you if it's $50per hour a dishwasher and all staff costs rise commensurately, yet only 50-80% patronage on average?
it does seem we were sold a lemon...
as far as 'vaccines' go, and what we can expect from them
Distracted wrote:@Tyler, yeah I think the mass testing days also need revising. The massive use of resources in people, disposable PPE, lab time and money is crazy. Pulling health care workers away from other jobs so they can manually collect data at testing clinics is a waste.
absolute crazy waste
sypkan you are an even bigger idiot than I previously believed if you are unable to detect the effect of a high vaccination rate on mortality. "sold a lemon" yeh one that saved tens of thousands of lives in Australia alone. Fuck me, how does someone as thick as you even survive?
attention attention attention
new labor talking point just in...
"Perrottet and Scumo has been frighteningly incompetent. Top of the list would be the failure to order RATs and the removal of QR codes and mask wearing. Just idiotic."
'RATs' are top of the list now
(despite practically everybody in labor barely knowing what they were 3 weeks ago...)
take your pill and calm down bindboy
we were sold much more than just that
and plus, your figures and hyperbole are questionable to say the least....
Usual nonsense
Victoria has secured 34 million RAT and will distribute them freely .
sypkan wrote:attention attention attention
new labor talking point just in...
"Perrottet and Scumo has been frighteningly incompetent. Top of the list would be the failure to order RATs and the removal of QR codes and mask wearing. Just idiotic."
'RATs' are top of the list now
(despite practically everybody in labor barely knowing what they were 3 weeks ago...)
If "Labor barely knew what they were 3 weeks ago" why did the Vic Labor govt order 34 million of them and are now distributing them for free.
That was Scumo's job. Another one that he failed miserably at.
Your arguments are kind of pathetic sypkan.
sypkan wrote:attention attention attention
new labor talking point just in...
"Perrottet and Scumo has been frighteningly incompetent. Top of the list would be the failure to order RATs and the removal of QR codes and mask wearing. Just idiotic."
'RATs' are top of the list now
(despite practically everybody in labor barely knowing what they were 3 weeks ago...)
If "Labor barely knew what they were 3 weeks ago" why did the Vic Labor govt order 34 million of them and are now distributing them for free.
That was Scumo's job. Another one that he failed miserably at.
Your arguments are kind of pathetic sypkan.
Some of the overseas reporting ( particularly america ) on what’s happening in Australia was bizarre, this video shows what’s happening in New York with vaccine passports .
What a lovely new world we are living in when you go out for a meal and a squad of police barge in, persecute a little boy then demand to see everyone else’s papers. This is the vax passport world so many are begging for. #NotAboutAVirus #NOVAXPASSPORTS pic.twitter.com/ZQFnybs4ly
— Cyn Clagar (@cynclagar) December 27, 2021
"....your figures and hyperbole are questionable to say the least...."
No hyperbole mate. NSW data from June to October (Delta wave)
412 deaths......47 fully vaccinated
1,015 ICU cases.....30 fully vaccinated
UK data
What numbers have you got?
Martin Foley “that 3rd shot, the booster dose is going to be critical if we are going to flatten this curve”. And there it is... What those tin foil hatters were saying 2 years ago.. You really couldn’t make this shit up..
At what point do u say enough.
“The events industry could have operated at 50% if the rules were loosened in a sensible manner“
Against a 5X more infectious variant?
Wouldn’t have worked
You would have had to increase Dan’s measures just to keep a hold of that 1000 case mark you guys had going there. And you’d have to do it until when, the next softer variant?
When you make stuff up just to politicise the virus your argument falls apart
Vic Local wrote:sypkan wrote:attention attention attention
new labor talking point just in...
"Perrottet and Scumo has been frighteningly incompetent. Top of the list would be the failure to order RATs and the removal of QR codes and mask wearing. Just idiotic."
'RATs' are top of the list now
(despite practically everybody in labor barely knowing what they were 3 weeks ago...)
If "Labor barely knew what they were 3 weeks ago" why did the Vic Labor govt order 34 million of them and are now distributing them for free.
That was Scumo's job. Another one that he failed miserably at.
Your arguments are kind of pathetic sypkan.
well the labor propaganda-ists (you) certainly weren't interested in them 3 weeks ago...
if you'd like to practice your own 'resurch' skills... i think you'll find I mentioned them probably a good 3 weeks before that...
not a peep from you though, ...not on the list? ...no clearance from above brains?
No numbers then sypkan, just a pile of fresh bullshit.
States fight for rapid antigen test supplies as federal government sits back . https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-fight-for-rapid-antigen-t...
The Prime Minister said that, while cases were rising, hospitalisation rates remained low – across the country, 1314 people are in hospital, 126 in ICU and 55 on ventilators.
Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly said Omicron was proving to be milder – between 15 per cent and 80 per cent less severe than Delta – but the large number of cases was putting pressure on PCR testing. The country’s chief health officers are discussing in a Wednesday afternoon meeting the best way to reserve those tests going forward. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/national-cabinet-called-to-discu... Between 15% and 80% less severe , how did they come up with such a wide range ? Age ? Weight ? Health ?
sorry bindboy, but it is my daily endeavour to not engage with you... as it only ends in name calling, negativity, and no civil discourse whatsoever...
see above... once again it's you with the personal insults and name calling before the day even got going... but apparently, from your warped perspective... it's everyone else...
but anyway, if you really want to chat, I dont see how your figures above refute anything I was saying... they are barely relevant...
and, they hardly prove your statement the vaccines "...saved tens of thousands of lives in Australia..."
which does seem rather presumptuous, hyperbolic, and full of funny figures...
supa I think the problem is that they are not doing enough genomic testing to know which cases are omicron and which are delta.
I'd say distracted has a closer grip on reality...
Distracted wrote:Possibly good news in NSW that the hospitalisation rate is still low despite arrival of omicron. With the recent surge in cases there will be a lag and hospitalisation rates will go up but maybe the government has fluked a win with omicron.
Dodged the more dangerous delta, won more time to develop appropriate treatments and then omicron appearing so far to have less associated disease. Fingers crossed, although Covid continues to throw curve balls.
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I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia