COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Yeah, contrast that with some other friends and they've not been hit anywhere near as hard. Mild as.
Very small study and early days but still positive news.
"COVID-19 Omicron variant may protect against severe Delta infection, research suggests"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-29/covid-19-omicron-variant-may-prot...
Blowin and Blindboy, maybe you’re both right about transmission and vaccination. The Sydney delta out break appeared to slow dramatically once vaccination rates increased suggesting transmission was reduced with vaccination. Omicron though appears to be spreading with ease despite high vaccination rates.
indo-dreaming wrote:Very small study and early days but still positive news.
"COVID-19 Omicron variant may protect against severe Delta infection, research suggests"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-29/covid-19-omicron-variant-may-prot...
Things do look promising. Like they say, a small study...but heading in the right direction.
Distracted wrote:Blowin and Blindboy, maybe you’re both right about transmission and vaccination. The Sydney delta out break appeared to slow dramatically once vaccination rates increased suggesting transmission was reduced with vaccination. Omicron though appears to be spreading with ease despite high vaccination rates.
Dont confuse cause with correlation.
We are finally seeing the true nature of covid after two years of lies , obfuscation and cover ups. Contrary to Blindboy’s hilarious “ I haven’t seen the data but there may be remnant pockets of delta “ line, Delta is as prevalent as it ever was and the relentless scare mongering of hospitalisation and death has never come to pass.
There are still millions of unvaccinated Australians and yet the doom spreaders want you to believe that 24 unvaccinated ( and 16 vaccinated) people in ICU is evidence that the vaccines were a miracle silver bullet….lol.
Covid was never as bad as it was made out to be.
Remember “ 2 weeks to save the health system “ ….well this is what would have happened if Australians hadn’t been coerced, corralled and cowed into the lockdown bullshit.
It is literally no worse than a bad flu year. Literally no worse.
The lies aren’t done yet though….they’ll never be done.
I just post a direct quote of the CEO of Pfizer saying that the clinical trials for their vaccine, the only clinical trial on the vaccine ever performed , showed a minimum of 90% efficacy in preventing Covid……and yet a few minutes later there’s some dumb cnt ( Roadkill) repeating the lie that no one ever said the vaccines were meant to prevent transmission and no one ever claimed they did so.
For funk’s sake!!!!! He’s contradicting the CEO and lead scientist of the company that makes the fucking vaccine!
WTF?
Almost everyone who is dying WITH covid ( and that’s fuvk all people) are vaccinated. Fuck all,people are getting seriously sick just like they never would unless the statistics were doctored to create the impression of an illness far, far worse than covid actually is.
The only thing that’s changed is the political narrative.
It was only a month or so ago that the fuckstiks on here were going on about how they want the unvaccinated separated from society because they reckon the unvaccinated spread covid. I’m sure if you asked them they’d still say this….because they are following ideology and their tendency towards being cunts rather than any fact based outcomes.
As for the politicians and their recent arrival at “ personal responsibility “….lol.
They do not give a fuck about your freedom. Let’s see their views on personal responsibility when ( if) they truly let the covid fear mongering pass them by . Wait until music festivals kick back into gear and see how long it takes them to start strip searching adult Australians and sucking the sniffer dogs onto them to see their true thoughts on personal responsibility.
The virus has no plans to support any argument or point of view. It does what it does to replicate itself and like water or rust will find a way.
"similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1
Abstract
Background Pre-Delta, vaccination reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from individuals infected despite vaccination, potentially via reducing viral loads. While vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta question how much vaccination prevents onward transmission.
Very often the high level messaging just strives to keep things simple and in the process sweeps the complexities and uncertainties under the carpet.
In normal politics and policy this works just fine to muddle through and no-one is that sure if things work well or not. With virus where we keep a score card, not so much.
Craig wrote:Yeah, contrast that with some other friends and they've not been hit anywhere near as hard. Mild as.
You think the mild cases must be omicron because…..?
You do realise that most cases of this virus show no symptoms and almost all the rest are ultra mild regardless of strain don’t you?
Oh wait….you’ve been told that everything is different now and that we can forget all the fake news they fed us before hey?
“It’s all good people- the sky is still falling but it’s not going to be as heavy as we thought. .”
Lolol
frog wrote:The virus has no plans to support any argument or point of view. It does what it does to replicate itself and like water or rust will find a way.
"similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1
Abstract
Background Pre-Delta, vaccination reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from individuals infected despite vaccination, potentially via reducing viral loads. While vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta question how much vaccination prevents onward transmission.Very often the high level messaging just strives to keep things simple and in the process sweeps the complexities and uncertainties under the carpet.
In normal politics and policy this works just fine to muddle through and no-one is that sure if things work well or not. With virus where we keep a score card, not so much.
No mate. The CEO of Pfizer said the clinical trials showed their vaccine reducing transmission by at least 90%. It was a big lie used to sell his product which led to the entire globe buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth.
Remember “ herd immunity at 70% vaccinated” ?
Then they started to get vaccine numbers up by forcing people to get the jab and then it became “ herd immunity at 80% vaccinated “.
Then everyone got vaccinated and it became “ Herd immunity? ….I don’t know what you’re talking about. “
It helps to have some idea what your are talking about Blowie. Pfizer reported the result of their trial as 90% efficacy. No-one with any knowledge of medical trials expects that the efficiency, that is the results in the community, will be exactly the same. The main cause of the difference is in the difference between the demographics of the trial cohort and the demographics of the actual population. It is impossible in most circumstances to match the cohort to the wider demographic across all the main variables age, gender and ethnicity. In general, since they are paid, cohorts will tend to be younger and healthier as uni students are often happy to earn a bit extra. This is particularly true for trials like vaccines, which are not treating a pre-existing condition.
In terms of transmission I would be very surprised if they made any claims at all as it is unlikely to have been part of any vaccine trial for ethical reasons. If you have evidence to the contrary let's see it.
Hospitalisation NSW from 261 to 746 in ten days
Yep, these idiots above won't be able to hide from the data over the coming months. Lucky most have been vaccinated and won't be clogging the hospitals. Otherwise it would be a complete shit show.
A friend of a mate, conspiracy nut got it and ended in hospital. Says it all.
Has anyone else noticed that the more blowin is wrong, the nastier and harder he fights for a completely discredited argument.
Is there a term for people who have that extreme level of unwillingness to admit they are wrong?
Vic Local wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the more blowin is wrong, the nastier and harder he fights for a completely discredited argument.
Is there a term for people who have that extreme level of unwillingness to admit they are wrong?
Most of them, sypkan, burleigh, blowin and other associated anti vax clowns believe they are right, even though they are wrong.
When on the wrong side of fact, again and again and again and again and again...it's near impossible to walk back your views.
This one for blowin and his amazing ability to create delusional porkie pies ;)
Try not blow a gasket bloke…
You certainly start fresh in the morning on the offensive ;)
Slight concern after all your time and effort thus far to not be able to bring anything to the table other than hearsay and speculation…
Fiction always makes good drama ;)
https://m.
Roadkill wrote:Vic Local wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the more blowin is wrong, the nastier and harder he fights for a completely discredited argument.
Is there a term for people who have that extreme level of unwillingness to admit they are wrong?Most of them, sypkan, burleigh, blowin and other associated anti vax clowns believe they are right, even though they are wrong.
When on the wrong side of fact, again and again and again and again and again...it's near impossible to walk back your views.
I actually wonder if they ever consider putting up their hands and saying "Yep, I got this whole covid thing hopelessly wrong. I'm going to climb out the rabbit hole and get on with my life". Surely that's an easier option than keep the bullshit flowing day in day out. That's got to be exhausting.
Can you be an anti vaxxer if you’re vaxxed?
Asking for a mate
Roadkill wrote:Vic Local wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the more blowin is wrong, the nastier and harder he fights for a completely discredited argument.
Is there a term for people who have that extreme level of unwillingness to admit they are wrong?Most of them, sypkan, burleigh, blowin and other associated anti vax clowns believe they are right, even though they are wrong.
When on the wrong side of fact, again and again and again and again and again...it's near impossible to walk back your views.
got a particular example there shed sharptool?
or just more shit talk?
goofyfoot wrote:Can you be an anti vaxxer if you’re vaxxed?
Asking for a mate
On here, according to BB, VL & RK's definition.....Yes.
This is getting silly.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/up-to-three-covid-jabs-a-year-c...
Well then...
Old Parliament House in Canberra caught alight as a crowd of protesters were reportedly heard chanting "let it burn".
— 9News Perth (@9NewsPerth) December 30, 2021
The fire was evacuated in less than 15 minutes after ACT firefighters responded to reports of the blaze.
MORE: https://t.co/Uh5bZnZpPl#9News pic.twitter.com/J0fRkgWsga
This is going to get a few knickers in a knot on here.
ahh the lies, on many fronts...
this one's for you Blindboy, on the lockdown strategy, but much else covered too - you are all about the science, well it seems your mate Fauci isnt
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/12/29/pharmas-w...
Craig wrote:Yep, these idiots above won't be able to hide from the data over the coming months. Lucky most have been vaccinated and won't be clogging the hospitals. Otherwise it would be a complete shit show.
A friend of a mate, conspiracy nut got it and ended in hospital. Says it all.
Says what exactly?
As it stands the hospitalisation rate is less than the flu…..except flu is more dangerous for a younger cohort.
NSW has had 659 deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test out of 166417 CONFIRMED cases. The NSW health officials freely admit that case numbers must be much higher.
At it stands covid in NSW has a all ages all comorbidities survival rate of 99.60%. The survival rate for the under 80s is closer to 99.995%.
Enough of the fear mongering and doom.
“You just wait till you see the death later….you just wait “…….pffffft.
NSW covid fatalities are literally lower than the flu ya fucken panic mongers.
Hey Craig.
In response to your mates Covid symptoms, and the timeline and sequence of them sound identical to what i went through with Influenza A about 6 months before Covid hit. It was brutal. Was stuck in a remote house in Vicco and the hotwater and heating packed it in at the same time so had to struggle through without heat. there were moments i wondered if i might be off to meet my maker. The dog i was looking after, a generally friendly Doberman even seemed to be eying me off for a potential meal with an evil look in his eye!!
Hope your mate recovers quickly. These things can be brutal.
Vic Local wrote:Has anyone else noticed that the more blowin is wrong, the nastier and harder he fights for a completely discredited argument.
Is there a term for people who have that extreme level of unwillingness to admit they are wrong?
Yeah….they’re called a VIC Local.
Lots of cases now amongst my daughters friends group.
Jelly Flater wrote:This one for blowin and his amazing ability to create delusional porkie pies ;)
Try not blow a gasket bloke…
You certainly start fresh in the morning on the offensive ;)Slight concern after all your time and effort thus far to not be able to bring anything to the table other than hearsay and speculation…
Fiction always makes good drama ;)
Not a single person on this thread has ever proven anything I’ve said to be untrue. Not once. Yet you fuckstiks still carry on like you’re killing it.
It’s a reach around circle jerk for doom fetishists and fear mongering finger bangers.
freeride76 wrote:Lots of cases now amongst my daughters friends group.
where are you, FR?
Blowin wrote:Jelly Flater wrote:This one for blowin and his amazing ability to create delusional porkie pies ;)
Try not blow a gasket bloke…
You certainly start fresh in the morning on the offensive ;)Slight concern after all your time and effort thus far to not be able to bring anything to the table other than hearsay and speculation…
Fiction always makes good drama ;)
Not a single person on this thread has ever proven anything I’ve said to be untrue. Not once. Yet you fuckstiks still carry on like you’re killing it.
It’s a reach around circle jerk for doom fetishists and fear mongering finger bangers.
Nearly everyday you post untruths. It's just to be expected.
goofyfoot wrote:Can you be an anti vaxxer if you’re vaxxed?
Asking for a mate
Yep. I only got it because I was forced by our fuckwit government.
99.995% now? Wow blowin. Why don't you say the chances of surviving covid are eleventy hundred percent.
Seriously mate, You're one of the biggest bullshitters on the planet.
Another tale that aged well.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/16500316/third-dose-of-pfizer-jab-gives-...
Blowin wrote:goofyfoot wrote:Can you be an anti vaxxer if you’re vaxxed?
Asking for a mate
Yep. I only got it because I was forced by our fuckwit government.
Hey goofy foot. blowin is one, and so too is Avi the wife basher. He's anti-vax for the cash but pro-vax for his own health.
So yes, you can be vaxxed and anti-vax. I reckon there's plenty of complete bullshit artists who are both.
Vic Local wrote:99.995% now? Wow blowin. Why don't you say the chances of surviving covid are eleventy hundred percent.
Seriously mate, You're one of the biggest bullshitters on the planet.
So prove me wrong. I’ve just read ten posts from the circle jerkers bleating that I’m wrong and not one of you simpletons has ever shown a lick,of contrary evidence.
You THINK you’re right but you’ve got no evidence to prove it….that’s what dumb cunts do Bloke.
Guess what? I think you might just be the dumbest of them all.
aaron61 wrote:Another tale that aged well.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/16500316/third-dose-of-pfizer-jab-gives-...
Yep….the lies just keep coming.
Have you noticed that not one of the Simple Jack circle jerk doom fetishists ever pause when shown one of their historic lies ? Nope….they just move on to the next lie and the lie after that.
“We are all DEAD !!!!! You wait two weeks!!!!”
Lolol
Proper simpletons.
Snowflake is on the piss, again.
goofyfoot wrote:Can you be an anti vaxxer if you’re vaxxed?
Asking for a mate
Ha ha its how you frame the question, try this one
If you are vaxed and against vaccination does it make you
1. Republican Politician
2. Work for Fox
3. Work for the CIA
4. Have a bad memory
5. The wife said you are getting vaxed and you are very weak, you know chickensh..
bluediamond wrote:Well then...
https://twitter.com/9NewsPerth/status/1476397921352437764?ref_src=twsrc%...
This is going to get a few knickers in a knot on here.
The fire was evacuated?
Maybe the people were extinguished??
Is this for real?
Hard to imagine an actual professional journalist writing that.
Roadkill wrote:Snowflake is on the piss, again.
Sober as a judge. Just got back from my second surf and see that you bullshit artists have been having yourselves a good ol’ circle jerk. Reassuring each other that the lies you keep telling must be true because….well because you’re all telling them!
It’s a circle jerk of lies!
Yewww!
Hey bloke- Remember a few hours ago when you said that no one had ever claimed the vaccines were effective at preventing infection? And you said it AFTER I’d posted a direct quote of the fucken CEO and Chief Scientist at Pfizer saying that the vaccines were effective at preventing infection.
And then you repeated your lie again!!!
I swear bloke , you’re The Terminator of Talking Shit. You don’t feel emotion or remorse, you just keep on spouting shit from your open sewer of a mouth.
Go get another booster bloke! Lolol
Three?
No,no,no.
That's only if you are young and healthy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/21/israeli-pm-announces-fourt...
I focus wrote:goofyfoot wrote:Can you be an anti vaxxer if you’re vaxxed?
Asking for a mate
Ha ha its how you frame the question, try this one
If you are vaxed and against vaccination does it make you
1. Republican Politician
2. Work for Fox
3. Work for the CIA
4. Have a bad memory
5. The wife said you are getting vaxed and you are very weak, you know chickensh..
Yeah bloke ….you’re one of the retards who thinks that medication is a tribalised political decision hey bloke?
That tells me you’re from the not-so-clever tribe bloke.
Red vs Blue ! What the actual fuck are you on about? You realise that Australia doesn’t have a Republican Party ?
Roadkill wrote:freeride76 wrote:Lots of cases now amongst my daughters friends group.
where are you, FR?
Byron/Ballina
According to a nurse at Lismore Base Hospital
a) they're intubating Covid patients on a daily basis there
b) once ICU Covid patients have been there for longer than 14 days, they're taken off the list of Covid patients
"prove me wrong" about your claim of 99.995% survival rate? Seriously blowin, I've done this on multiple occasions. Death rate = number of cases divided by number of deaths. This is not complicated. You're either too stupid to understand basic maths, or too arrogant to admit you are wrong. Saying the same lie over and over and over again doesn't make it true. It just makes you a serial bullshit artist.
aaron61 wrote:Three?
No,no,no.
That's only if you are young and healthy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/21/israeli-pm-announces-fourt...
Israel is Gold!
It’s the perfect example of the depth of bullshit being pushed throughout the developed world.
Israel’s shares borders with some direct neighbours. Some of its neighbours are Jordan, Palestine , Egypt , Syria and Lebanon.
Israel has had the absolute fuck vaccinated out of it. They are into their 4th shot with a virtually 100% vaccinated population !! They must be so well protected and doing so much better than their less wealthy neighbours hey!
Let’s have a look at how much better they are doing :
Israel :
Population- 9.2M
Deaths- 8243
Egypt
Population-102M ! Ten times Israel!
Vaccination rate - 18.7%
Deaths- 21667
Syria
Population- 17.5M almost double Israel
Vaccination rate- a whopping 4.5%!!!!
Deaths- 2884 …..Huh? A quarter of Israel’s deaths !?!?
Palestine
Population 4.8M
Vaccination rate- 30%
Deaths- 4650
Lebanon
Population-6.8M
Vaccination rate- 26%
Deaths- 9072
Wow! When you look at the figures of countries which are literally abutting each other akin to states in Australia you can really see the huge, massive , real world benefits of injecting your population with a toxic substance repeatedly.
Not.
Why is this not accounted for? Because the media in the developed world doesn’t want to acknowledge these facts.
Vic Local wrote:"prove me wrong" about your claim of 99.995% survival rate? Seriously blowin, I've done this on multiple occasions. Death rate = number of cases divided by number of deaths. This is not complicated. You're either too stupid to understand basic maths, or too arrogant to admit you are wrong. Saying the same lie over and over and over again doesn't make it true. It just makes you a serial bullshit artist.
For sure bloke.
Now if you’ll just divide the number of cases amongst the under 80s , which is probably in the 155,000 to 160,000 range , by the number of people under 80 who’ve died from covid - probably about 50 people. Then turn the survival rate into a percentage.
Go do your maths bloke.
PS Don’t forget the fatality rate for the flu is about 0.4%. That makes a survival rate for the flu of 99.6% for the flu.
PANIC!!!!!!
Blowin wrote:Vic Local wrote:"prove me wrong" about your claim of 99.995% survival rate? Seriously blowin, I've done this on multiple occasions. Death rate = number of cases divided by number of deaths. This is not complicated. You're either too stupid to understand basic maths, or too arrogant to admit you are wrong. Saying the same lie over and over and over again doesn't make it true. It just makes you a serial bullshit artist.
For sure bloke.
Now if you’ll just divide the number of cases amongst the under 80s , which is probably in the 155,000 to 160,000 range , by the number of people under 80 who’ve died from covid - probably about 50 people. Then turn the survival rate into a percentage.
Go do your maths bloke.
PS Don’t forget the fatality rate for the flu is about 0.4%. That makes a survival rate for the flu of 99.6% for the flu.
PANIC!!!!!!
So YOUR fatality rate basically ignores a shit load of people who died of covid and uses the word "probably" a lot..
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
How embarrassing.
so just MORE shit talk then?
yet again...
sypkan wrote:so just MORE shit talk then?
yet again...
Well when blowin posts absolute crap, I'm going to laugh at him.
AndyM wrote:According to a nurse at Lismore Base Hospital
a) they're intubating Covid patients on a daily basis there
b) once ICU Covid patients have been there for longer than 14 days, they're taken off the list of Covid patients
Hey Andy. That’s absolutely shithouse that some people are currently experiencing what’s probably the worst experience of their lives in hospital. I hope every one of them pulls through. But do you mind if I you could ask that nurse a couple of questions if you see them again please.
Could you ask them how many patients we are talking about and their likely vulnerability to any illness ? Are they old or suffer from chronic severe illness? Are they obese?
This is important to me because when you say that multiple people are intubated it lends me to imagine dozens of otherwise healthy people who’ve succumbed purely to covid. If this was the case it would cause me to seriously reevaluate my opinion on the virus. If ot is a handful of already sick or extremely elderly people I’d find this unsurprising. I wouldn’t derive pleasure from the news in any way- I’m not a ghoul - but it would definitely help define the virus in my mind.
My point is that old and vulnerable people get sick for many, many reasons and they often end up in ICU and each year tens of thousands die. On average there is about 3270 people die every single week and I don’t think their deaths are less important than a covid death.
Cheers mate.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia