COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
indo-dreaming wrote:shoredump wrote:Talking NSW numbers here. At the current rate of 6000 cases, the wave will last 1000 days.
How did you come to that conclusion on numbers?
Your own thoughts or read it elsewhere?
My understanding is it's more likely to be a much much bigger wave than we have seen case wise in Australia, but will peak in only a few weeks before cases start falling.
South Africas Omicron wave hit late November and peaked about 16 December so roughly three weeks and most waves fall in a similar time frame or a little longer to time they take to peak.
Other waves in South Africa were longer, there is obviously other factors to take into things that might see our wave be a little different and longer even with less than half the population of South Africa, but you would expect to still see a fast hitting wave, a fast peak and possibly fairly fast decline.
The waves also don't seem to continue to burn through whole populations as you would expect but normally only affect a percentage of the population before peaking.
Just my own thoughts and I don’t really think it’ll be a steady wave, they all seem to go up and down mostly on their own. But with the infectiousness of omicron and the population of NSW, that’s what you’re looking at. Either a drawn out wave after wave over a couple years thing, or a harder failing system at higher numbers. The other possible scenario is it goes away by itself / or doesn’t infect everyone
At this stage doesnt the science say it can reinfect, so this may be an interesting coupla years
“Virtual “ healthcare and A.I being proposed to improve the health system??
I feel so sad for children growing up into this kind of world.
Ludicrous .
https://m.
and, at the same time...
the public need to get a grip, blowin is copping all sorts of shit, but his points are correct... those death stats hardly equate to 'dom the ripper'...
and the slow motion 'not lockdown' currently unfolding, due to a really poorly thought out close contact system is a masterstroke in lack of forsight...
I have to agree.
it's not sustainable to throw sand in the transmission for every close or casual contact now.
there's just too much virus circulating to do that.
saltyone wrote:“Virtual “ healthcare and A.I being proposed to improve the health system??
I feel so sad for children growing up into this kind of world.
Ludicrous .
Scary but fascinating stuff saltyone , so much on you tube about AI , a lot of it a warning from guys like steve hawking and elon musk . This is 7 years old but what he said at the end is unnerving.
If you were a really cynical bastard you’d be tempted to believe that this whole deal of the overwhelmed health services and the collateral destruction of small / medium enterprise tied in with the neoliberalism movement.
Two years of PANIC pandemic and the government hasn’t just failed to bolster the health sector, they’ve consciously undermined it by sacking the unvaccinated -even though that ideological point is now moot , completely refused to provide the funding necessary to make the public sector fit for task and then they’ve now hobbled the lot with the ridiculous test and isolate program.
If you want to justify private / public “stakeholder relationships as the Great Reset slash neoliberalism* demands, then you’ve got to find a way to declare the public health system broken and then the government needs to start crying that they’re riddled with debt and unable to fix the problem on their own.
Watch this space.
Or….this could all be just more rabbit hole conspiracy. It’s not like this whole test and trace farce has already unfolded elsewhere…..6 months ago.
https://www.nationalworld.com/health/what-is-pingdemic-meaning-of-uk-sel...
To be honest, I’m now of the opinion that everything is being done to run the existing state into the ground and it’s actually hard to find evidence which disputes this belief. The privatisation of everything, everywhere. The destruction of the public service . The debasement of currency through central bank action . The destruction of small and medium businesses through two years of virus PANIC and overreaction.
I suppose you could put it down to spontaneous and debilitating ineptitude taking root simultaneously throughout the entire western world. But….nah. I don’t think so.
Creative destruction.
*The Great Reset isn’t some amazing rewriting of humanity, it’s the formalisation of neoliberalism as entrenched political ideology for the emerging global institutions which will control the nation states. The big corporate carve up,of the worlds resources- material and human - overseen by a centralised world authority.
saltyone wrote:It can’t sustain like this .
Collapse by design ?
https://www.weforum.org/platforms/shaping-the-future-of-health-and-healt...
It’s worth reading their future plans just to set your sights on a 100% pure stream of corpo speak. Isn’t it funny that they’ve taken several hundred words to state “ We plan to usher in a One World global government which will exist to expand and focus our current patchwork nationalised neoliberalism into a single, streamlined conduit of worldwide public money into transnational corporate hands.”
You’ll be treated at home by a private company algorithm instead of attending a local hospital. The state will pay the corporation and you will pay the state. No option will be available unless you’re super rich.
Ha ha even more ridiculous than usual! Good one Blowie! Be afraid! Be very afraid the one world government is coming Blowie says it so it must be true
And a big Q to you too!
sypkan wrote:and, at the same time...
the public need to get a grip, blowin is copping all sorts of shit, but his points are correct... those death stats hardly equate to 'dom the ripper'...
and the slow motion 'not lockdown' currently unfolding, due to a really poorly thought out close contact system is a masterstroke in lack of forsight...
Yup! Couldn't agree more. Plus one to this and to Blowin for fighting the good fight on this one. Especially when it's the facts and not the personal stuff.
Yeah, you won’t see it coming Blindboy. Not until it’s announced as the Big Cuddly answer to all the world’s problems. Then you’ll be so grateful for the forfeiture of freedoms faced by your descendants under the new regime They’ll be told that private vehicles cause the melting of the ice sheets despite the rich flying private jets between their houses. They’ll be told that drinking fresh water is a threat to the flow of rivers as they’re fed recycled sewage. They’ll be told that private ownership of property is impossible as the environment is an interconnected loop which is too important an organism to be trusted to personnel responsibility ….whilst the Bezos and Gates of the world seclude themselves on million acre freeholds.
It’s coming and you’ll cheer it as saving the planet……cause you’re a stupid animal who swallows the lie of neo feudalism sold as honourable collectivism
Blowin wrote:Yeah, you won’t see it coming Blindboy. Not until it’s announced as the Big Cuddly answer to all the world’s problems. Then you’ll be so grateful for the forfeiture of freedoms faced by your descendants under the new regime They’ll be told that private vehicles cause the melting of the ice sheets despite the rich flying private jets between their houses. They’ll be told that drinking fresh water is a threat to the flow of rivers as they’re fed recycled sewage. They’ll be told that private ownership of property is impossible as the environment is an interconnected loop which is too important an organism to be trusted to personnel responsibility ….whilst the Bezos and Gates of the world seclude themselves on million acre freeholds.
It’s coming and you’ll cheer it as saving the planet……cause you’re a stupid animal who swallows the lie of neo feudalism sold as honourable collectivism
won't see it coming?
he's cheering it on... when he's not denying the bleeding obvious...
pretty clear some of a certain political bent accepted this unfolding 'hegemony' a long time ago, and are advocating for it...
(whilst vehemently denying the very existence of such developments...)
Got to the rabbits yet blokes?
blindboy's camp....
https://mobile.twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1329513637195747334
Thing is Blindboy, you like to swallow the Washington Post conspiracy beat up that people like me believe we will wake up tomorrow to find every TV channel broadcasting the same dictatorial speech from a Dr Evil like villain in a swivel chair with a cat on his lap. You think that’s what I mean by a One World Government.
Incorrect. It’ll be much more mundane, innocuous of appearance and incremental of instigation.
It’s happening now without your realisation.
The Free Trade Agreements which countries sign without public consultation or release of detail, yet are legally binding and take pre eminence over national sovereignty. They have to be taken to an unelected, unrepresentative international tribunal if mediation is required.
That’s globalised post nationalism.
The World Health Organisation is currently forming a body which will be legally able to enforce behaviour upon formerly sovereign nations under the guise of global health. That’s globalised post nationalism.
https://www.who.int/news/item/01-12-2021-world-health-assembly-agrees-to...
You honestly believe that an environmental equivalent of this body is too far away?
Get real bloke.
Then it’ll be global finances after a world wide meltdown of financial markets. The BIS will create the World Bank with a single global digital currency to stabilise the world economy.
Etc etc.
Every forward step towards an EU style Pan World government with elected representatives from each nation will be ushered in as the solution to some situation which will be presented as inherently unsolvable at a national level.
And you will clap your hands with glee and deny you’d ever disputed the establishment of such an institution and such an outcome for the world.
And then you’ll say “ Well it’s for the best anyway” as your children are restricted in what they eat, where they go and how they live.
You will cheer when people are no longer permitted to fish the seas for their dinner , unless it’s “ traditional “ culture of course, as you’ll say there’s not enough fish ….despite corporations continuing to dragnet the oceans.
You will agree when humans are forced to live in tiny sky kennel apartments as they preserve the worlds percentage of habitat, you will roar in agreement when large tracts of the planet are declared off limits to general humanity as a form of rewilding of the Earth ….despite the rich and connected being able to visit it as they please.
NSW Test Series
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nearly-1000-more-affected-in-covid-t...
22-23rd Dec 400 [-] > [+]
23-24th Dec 995 [-] > [?]
4th- 11th Dec NSW (This is only a Full Vax "running Guide" to inform of the current wane!)
(Much is uncounted nondescript mix of 1dose + no vax + n/a)...to be expected in outbreak.
0-11 years 16,107 or (20%) / Hospital 4.2% / ICU 0,8% / deaths 0.
Full Vax 1,418 (49.8%) or 62.3% Vax Pop / Hospital 35 / ICU 9 / RIP 5
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-sur...
{Page 7} Notes the Weekly increases in Full Vax infection rate & that's for good reason!
[Graph] Full (vs) No Vax ( Full vax wane infections are rising (vs) Less infectious No vax plummeting)
Game Park rangers should hunt down VIP Vaxerz & release the unvaxed to mop up the Omicron.
Mass Tip : TV Land never said to keep clear of 3 month Vaxerz... they are lighting up the town!
Crew should start to feel it on the back of their necks, as to why the boosters were brought forward.
I'm a VIP get me outta Here!
NSW State of Variant
20 Sept [Delta] cases Active 26,907 > Week 9,522 > Homecare 14,447 > Hospital 1,001 > ICU 240
20 Dec [Omicron] cases Active 21,991 > Week 16,344 > Homecare 8,356 > Hospital 262 > ICU 40.
https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/697237/2021122...
Ashes of another NSW Test, that Gladys cooked up earlier...(Try 140,000 stray [-] Tests/day)
22nd Aug 311,083 [Tests] > NSW Health :"140,000 unreported [-] tests were dumped onto the total."
Neat trick > cooled the outbreak...(Reduced cases by 80 on 24th Aug)
There are a few more (Bulked up) Test Peak anomalies resulting in lowering of cases.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210823_00.aspx
Scomo's Mass Vax disaster was the mother of misplaced health records.
Feds Phase 1 Vax Race (Have a Go!) 21st Feb - 8th April Censored Data dump (Includes PM's shot!)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-daily-covid-19-vaccine-rollo...
Sept 2020 Dan vs Daggy Dad body bag bungle won't harm any new stately Govt inheritance claims!
Vic had just ruled out multi cultural rellies to make claims, now to unplug the Nursing Home phones!
Gotta unzip every body bag for the large inner city land bank leases...this one surely...Ok! dump them!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/authorities-defend-discrepan...
Human Rights abuse with UK Covid Inheritance Tax
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/government-accused-human-rights-abuse...
Can only nominate one for the Covid Humanitarian Award!
NSW government considers lifting COVID-19 isolation for healthcare workers. Healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 would no longer have to isolate under new measures being considered by the NSW government, which is battling a staffing crisis across Sydney hospitals. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-government-considers-lifting-cov...
Supafreak wrote:NSW government considers lifting COVID-19 isolation for healthcare workers. Healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 would no longer have to isolate under new measures being considered by the NSW government, which is battling a staffing crisis across Sydney hospitals. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-government-considers-lifting-cov...
Interesting that what is the equivalent of a common cold is stealing ALL of the media airtime at the moment directed at the general population. A cynical mind might wonder what's really going on besides Covid and Omicron. I mean, it's just a cold right? And we're all here talking about it. And this is news??? My bullshit radar goes up in direct proportion with the more intense the news headlines get, especially considering there's been.....err...one death (RIP) from this deadly disease sweeping the nation. Hmm.
"I mean, it's just a cold right?"
How many times have crew died or ended up in ICU with a common cold BD? Stop posting absolute crap.
OMICRON!! OMICRON!! OMICRON!! Coming to get you VL. You can't hide under your bed forever!!!!!
btw VL, still waiting for your response on my reply to you about the FDA not releasing information about Pfizer's vax for another 55 years. You called me out about that as being absolute crap also, until i posted the links to it. Any thoughts on it yet Mr Vocal. you seem to run and hide as soon as you get caught out. I let you off, but since you have come after me....?
BD, I'm not chasing your rabbits down holes mate. You've asked me to provide answers to questions you never asked and then you change the goalposts anyway. Why the fuck would I want to get into a debate with a clown who claims covid has resulted in only one death in Australia?
You don't deserve answers to your stupid questions, you just deserve to be mocked.
Vic Local wrote:BD, I'm not chasing your rabbits down holes mate. You've asked me to provide answers to questions you never asked and then you change the goalposts anyway. Why the fuck would I want to get into a debate with a clown who claims covid has resulted in only one death in Australia?
You don't deserve answers to your stupid questions, you just deserve to be mocked.
Covid? Omicron? Who can tell anymore? Not even the media or politicians that you cherish know whats going on! I understand why you're scared.
Nah VL, your memory doesn't serve you well. I posted that the science that has gone into Pfizer's vaccines is all in house and not peer reviewed.
You replied that it is all peer reviewed and shared a link, bizarrely about covid case studies after the fact, that vaccines had been taken.
I requested information from you about the science behind the developement of Pfizers vaccines.
You called me names and said nasty things.
I provided you with a link that showed that the FDA refused to release the information to the wider scientific community for the next 55 years with references to the most reputable sources there are.
There were no rabbit holes.
Just the one you hid under to avoid answering.
Anyway, feel free to reply to my original post about the FDA and the FOI being released in 55 years. It wasn't me that wrote that. It was them. Go for it big fella.
I didn't answer your idiotic questions because the Pfizer studies have been peer-reviewed. You make up these ridiculous conspiracy theories and then want me to debunk them. fuck that mate, I've got better things to do than debate crackpots.
Well all good VL.
One question....
Got a link to those peer reviews????
Obviously thars the point brother.
I'll wait....55 years or so..unless you have special insider information no one else has??
BD phase three results, (I haven't read)
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/peer-reviewed-data-s...
Not sure of the time line
interesting that the most highly priced scientists from the wider American university community requested that very same information..purely to DEBUNK the falsehoods around your beloved vaccine, but were told to nick off...for 55 years. Youre so lucky to be on the inside VL! Covid royalty!
Cheers i ficus..but not results ...development!! Not for me. For the crew that actually understand that language. The ones begging for it. The scientists!
VL until you can provide me scientific information of the complete science behind developing an Mrna trial vaccine, I'll have to sadly deflect the 'idiot' tag squarely back on you. Development. The hows, whys what's etc that went into the chemical developement of the vaccine. Not the trials effects (short term so far) on humans) Where's the framework behind the science that went into this fir the great minds of science around the world to debate and contemplate??
BD the Pfizer stuff may well be under wraps (I don't know) but Gessues the pages of peer review paper of the Pfizer vaccine is like no other don't know any other vaccine so scrutinized.
Cheers
you need to answer thus mate. No more hiding
cheers I focus. Its useful but not the fundamentals of what I'm looking for. Suoer appreciated though. Thankyou
my question to VL us simple. Why is the broader scientific community being denied access to scrutinizing the development of a trial vaccine being forced onto the world's population?? ( not forgetting Pfizers fucking history)
Avoided it agan. Come on VL. You can't dog me twice on this. You have a VERY strong opinion on this. Please provide evidence (the standard you hold everybody else to).
Name calling to deflect will not cut it this time, nor will highlighting parts of my post to again deflect attention from your proper answer. Black and white. Evidence of the science that went into the development of Pfizers vaccines pleaaase and if you cant, why not?
fark im feeling lucky....tell me why we have to wait 55 years for it too if youre up to it :-P
Blowin wrote:Three “covid “ deaths today. Two people in their 80s and one person in their 90s.
All double vaccinated.
So it’s the exact same crew dying after the “ vaccinate to freedom “ push as before it. And no one is free after being vaccinated. If the government rings you and says stay in your home till we let you out, you stay in your home till they let you out.
Even if you are not sick.
Even if you test negative.
Even though the virus is a headache unless you’re 89 years old and are already dying of dementia.
Blowin your last three posts - yes! Fucking spot on . Worded so perfectly .
Yes I agree it’s insidious in its development so that many won’t even realise what has taken place. Fear helps to keeps the blinkers on. We only need to look back in history to see the similarities.
It was never just about the virus.
Hand over your rights = hand over your life.
WEF’s future plans.. ( ha nice summary) which by the way was published before the pandemic gained momentum. I would guess many months or more likely years of work to put together that “ strategic intelligence “app .
It’s just so icky
Superfreak I feel Stephen Hawking is right. It would spell the end of the human race. Absolutely frightening all of it. Always in increments until it snowballs .. first there was Siri , then Alexa .. then ..... then ...
Boris Johnston even mentioned A.I amongst other things like tech and surveillance in his big speech at start of the cov debacle. He knew, like so many of them.
https://m.
haha. brilliant SF.
Oh well, life is over… new world order. Next step, we all get tracking devices implanted.
What do you think the vaccine passport is about?
https://www.france24.com/en/video/20211221-covid-19-in-sweden-a-vaccine-...
bluediamond wrote:you need to answer thus mate. No more hiding
I never raised the topic in the first place you idiot. You started a discussion, got your facts wrong and then demanded I answer your questions.
Why the F would I waste my time on your rabbit holes?
Vic Local wrote:bluediamond wrote:you need to answer thus mate. No more hiding
I never raised the topic in the first place you idiot. You started a discussion, got your facts wrong and then demanded I answer your questions.
Why the F would I waste my time on your rabbit holes?
BD demanding you answer a question is hilarious…
Kooks have been running scared of govts control since forever…the latest batch of conspiracy kooks is no different from others…20, 30, 50, 80, 100, 100+ years ago.
Same nutters different generation.
Hahaha SF that made my day ;)
Yeah bloke.
You’re the dumb cnt who took a healthy young bloke to stand in a line for 5 hours to find out whether he was sick or not. But you think other people are nuts?
You’re the bloke who has been shitting himself about superspreaders in society then you literally drive a suspect covid infection around your suburb? Lol.
You’re the clown who wanted the unvaccinated locked away because the government told you they were a threat to society. A “pandemic of the unvaccinated” remember?
And now we’ve got global institutions literally laying out their agenda on their official website you claim that the idea is a fantasy?
I wouldn’t expect much more from a MAMIL to be fair.
BD who cares about scrutinising the development of the pfizer vaccine? All that matters is how well it works. Which it does. As many studies have shown. A 2 second google search is all it takes. Here's one of many. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/02/03/2021.02.01.2125...
I dont understand it cos I'm not smart enough and or educated enough. But then neither are you. You wouldn't try to outthink the guy fixing the computer bullshit on your car, but it blows me away that all sorts of people think they can outthink the best scientific minds in the world and see something they're all missing. My sisters have been caught up in your bullshit. One of them, in her mid sixties, is literally risking her life over it. And its always focusing on Pfizer, Fauci and big Farma - like Fauci wouldn't be making triple the money working in private industry. If youre paranoid about it, take AZ!!
Blowin wrote:Yeah bloke.
You’re the dumb cnt who took a healthy young bloke to stand in a line for 5 hours to find out whether he was sick or not. But you think other people are nuts?
You’re the bloke who has been shitting himself about superspreaders in society then you literally drive a suspect covid infection around your suburb? Lol.
You’re the clown who wanted the unvaccinated locked away because the government told you they were a threat to society. A “pandemic of the unvaccinated” remember?
And now we’ve got global institutions literally laying out their agenda on their official website you claim that the idea is a fantasy?
I wouldn’t expect much more from a MAMIL to be fair.
I’m the parent, that took my son, to have a covid test…as he was required to do…as his employer required if he wants to keep his part time job. It is a legal requirement.
I’m sure you will be happy to know his results came back 12 hrs after his test, as negative.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia