High pressure drifts towards New Zealand early next week with a strengthening N’ly flow through the East Tas swell window.
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Better options are ahead early next week as a new high pressure system quickly migrates through the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand and a N’ly fetch develops off the South Coast and down to Bass Strait.
Short term and the western flank of the high creates a NE fetch off the South Coast and extending across Bass Strait through tomorrow to Thursday.
The long, elongated trough line extending off the NSW Coast and angling in a NW/SE orientation towards New Zealand is now located a bit further north than modelled on Wed. Like the last trough system it’s now located more on the Mid North Coast. That amount to a slight downgrade for Eastern Tasmania as the fetch is now located a bit farther north and aimed more at NSW.
Models are still solid on a major trough line forming in the Tasman as an interior trough exits the Coast on Friday.
This trough is expected to exit the South Coast and form a long SSE angled fetch on Fri as it becomes cradled by a large high moving through the Bight. A pretty classic set-up.
Current model runs suggest the low is further north, and unlikely to exit the coast until late Sun evening or even early Mon. The fetch is now no longer aimed into the Tasmanian swell window so the swell due Sun/Mon, in effect, has been downgraded to almost nothing.
Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks is favourably disposed towards Tasmania for swell production, albeit with some periods of unfavourable winds ahead.
An interior low approaches the coast Sun, moving offshore from the Gippsland Coast and intensifying the NE infeed during the day.
The next cold front is tied to a complex, mid-latitude low and sees gales sweeping up from the Southern Ocean adjacent to Tasmania on Monday.