Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building N/NE windswell Sun PM, easing Mon with N/NW tending S/SE winds on Mon
• Small leftover Tues
• Not much on offer next week with a quiet looking long term

Recap

Leftovers Thursday were in the 3ft range, easing during the day. Size has dropped right back into the 1-2ft range today with a weak S swell and S to SE winds making a mess of it.

This weekend and next week (Feb 11 - 18)

The headline news is Severe TC Dovi, which formed north-east of New Caledonia Wed a’noon and is moving SW at about 12 knots inside the Coral Sea. At 5am this morning TC Dovi was about 730 nautical miles E/NE of the Queensland border. Unfortunately STC Dovi will not be a swell source for the East Coast of Tasmania. 

Concurrently, a long NW-SE angled high pressure ridge is being energised by the south-wards moving cyclone, forming an impressive fetch of SE winds through the central Tasman Sea.

This too is just located too far North to be in the swell window.

Thus we are looking at a weak, local fetch of S’ly winds from a trough tomorrow, seeing a slight bump in short period S’ly wind swell in the 2ft range Sat, easing back Sun.

N’ly winds do perk up off the South Coast and into Bass Strait later Sun, which should see NE windswell lift into the 3ft range later Sun. 

This will quickly drop away Mon, with a S’ly change from another weak trough, greeting 2ft leftovers, easing further during the day.

The rest of next week looks small and flukey. 

A small blend of S and weak NE wind swell Tues into Wed is likely to less than 2ft, with onshore winds.

A stronger cold front Thurs brings a stiff offshore blast but not much in the way of swell- a foot or two of S’ly swell gets around the corner into the North-East corner. 

Another passing front to the south may see a bump in S swell Sat, but we’re still looking at size below 2ft. Conditions should be clean though under an offshore flow. Perhaps an early sign of Autumn?

Longer term there’s not much on the radar heading into the end of next week.

Check back Mon for a fresh update and have a great weekend!