Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th Feb)

TL:DR

• Small mid-period S swell tomorrow, with a stronger S/SE groundswell building Fri PM, easing Sat with S/SW tending SE winds
• Small mix of swells Sun with SE winds
• Building E'ly swell from Wed next week with E winds, better winds Thurs as swell eases

Recap

Surf was in the 3-4ft range Thurs morning as E/NE swell leftovers held on, before easing back during the day under a gusty S’ly flow. Today has seen size drop further with mostly 2ft waves, and the odd bigger one. A small flush of S’ly groundswell has pushed surf up into the 2-3ft range at S exposed beaches. Mod/fresh S’ly winds are now easing as the trough/low moves away from the Island and a large high pressure ridge fills in.

This weekend and next week (Feb 5 - 11)

S’ly swell eases through Sat, with a light/mod SE flow expected as a large high moves towards and underneath the Island over the weekend.

Expect size in the 3ft range, easing through the day with smaller 2ft leftovers Sun and a continuing light/mod SE flow.

Things become more dynamic next week. 

A strong monsoonal surge pushing off the tropics into the Coral Sea is super-charged by the vorticity created by the monster high pressure ridge. Models now seem in broad agreement that a large, dual-centred,  low pressure gyre forms across the Coral Sea/South Pacific and into the North Tasman Sea (see below)

The Tasman sea end of the gyre deepens and retrogrades later this weekend and into Monday. This aims  a fetch of SE-E/SE gales from Cook Strait into the Central Tasman, straight back at the NSW Coast. 

While this swell is aimed at NSW, the fetch continues to dip south as it weakens, eventually reaching the Eastern Tas swell window later Mon (see below). This will see E swell start to build Tues into the 3-4ft range after an undersized start, with E/SE winds expected.

Stronger E swell is expected Wed, with size in the 4-5ft range. Winds don’t look too favourable with a lingering E to E/SE flow expected through the day. 

Thursday looks better for winds with a light SW breeze during the morning and plenty of leftover E swell in the 4ft range, slowly easing during the day with winds tending S’ly.

Further ahead and models look very dynamic into the end of next week. A S’ly change from a front Thurs is likely to see a small uptick in surf Fri.

A low tracking into the Tasman sea should see surf build form the E/NE into the 2-3ft range Sat, bigger 3-4ft on Sun.

More on that in Mondays f/cast.

Till then have a great weekend!