Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S pulses next week on Mon/Tues
• More S swell Wed PM
• S swell holding into Thurs PM
• Easing S swells Good Fri
• Small S swell Sat
• Possible S/SE groundswell Sun, easing Mon
• More S swell next week

Recap

Small S swells over the weekend with Sat in the 1-2ft range with better winds in the a’noon. Sun had stronger surf to 2ft at S facing beaches and offshore winds and today has seen building surf in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches with mostly W’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Mar 25 - Apr5)

We’ve got an extensive high pressure belt  with weak cells in the Tasman and near Indian Ocean and a stronger cell in the Bight. Compared to summer high pressure we’re seeing a slight seasonal shift northwards in the belt although later in the week the strong high in the Bight does move towards Tasmania at a more typical summer latitude. For now, frontal activity is being allowed to track in a more favourable manner for S swell production so we’ll see a week of small/moderate S swell pulses  leading into the Easter weekend. Read on for details.

Todays pulse persists into tomorrow with mod S swell offering 3 occ. 4ft sets at S facing beaches under continuing W’ly winds shifting more SW 

later in the a’noon.

High pressure slowly moves over the state Wed into Thurs with light winds developing, mostly weak S-SE breezes. Easing swells Wed mornign before the next pulse fills in the a’noon to 2-3ft at S facing beaches. Expect that to be on the ease by Thurs morning with a few 2-3ft sets early, dropping back through the day under light breezes.

By Fri we’ll at the low point in the f/cast period with small leftovers to 1-2ft or less and light land and seabreezes.

Into the weekend and more small S pulses are expected with winds shifting N-NE on Sat and freshening into Sun before a S’ly change late in the day.

Small S swells Sat in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches are on offer.

A stalled low near the ice shelf should see some S/SE groundswell Sun with sets to 3ft under NE winds. The NE fetch may see some minor NE windswell develop to 2ft during the a’noon. 

Next week starts small with a local S change bringing some small S swell and S’ly winds, easing quickly into Tues. 

Models are divergent about the strength and alignment of the southern ocean storm track but there’s reasonable odds a strong frontal system will see some sizey S swell develop on Wed likely with light winds as high pressure approaches or passes over the state.

That’s still a long way off so lets see how it’s shaping up on Wed.