Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri March 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell next weekend, peaking Sun
• Small S pulses Wed/Thurs next week
• Small E/NE swells filtering down from tropics from Wed next week
• Sizey S swell possible Fri/Sat next week
• Potential for sizey E/NE swell late next weekend

Recap

Just small leftover S swells to end the week with yesterday seeing 1-2ft surf at S facing beaches and  today even smaller- 1ft or less with N’ly winds.

This weekend and next week (Mar8 -Mar15) 

There was a nice, lingering tail to the S swell event but we’re now entrenched in a classic late Summer pattern with strong high pressure moving into the Tasman, setting up a downstream blocking pattern and very healthy tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea, extending E into the South Pacific and south into the Northern Tasman.

That’ll see a typical wind pattern with SE-E/SE winds in the sub-tropics and a N’ly flow across NETas in the short term.

Not much change for Sat’s f/cast. Increasing N’ly winds and a building windswell from the same direction, reaching 3-4ft by close of play at beaches exposed to that swell direction. 

Source of NE windswell Sat PM/Sun AM

Further increase on Sun with size to 4ft early and offshore NW winds for the morning before a S’ly change pokes it’s nose in around lunch-time or just before. Fresh S-SE winds through the a’noon behind the change will make surf a mess and NE windswell eases rapidly.

Next week starts with winds shifting N’ly again as high pressure moves E of the state. Just some small NE swell on tap from a weak fetch above the state offering not much more than 1-2ft of surf under light/mod N’ly winds.

A stronger front passes under the state Tues, bringing a spike in S swell through the a’noon, up to 3-4ft at S facing beaches although winds won’t be favourable, being mod/fresh from the S-S/SE. We should start to see some workable E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics later Tues up to 2ft or so.

This tradewind signal holds for the rest of the week, in the 2ft range with the occ. bigger set. Winds look to tend light and variable Wed as a new high moves over the state, then winds tend more SE-E as reinforcing high pressure sets up a ridge across the state. 

Late in the week we’ll see a strong front with a more meridional fetch (N-S) move into the Tasman and if this comes off as modelled we’ll see a strong S swell pulse later Fri into Sat, with size up into the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches. We’ll see how it looks Mon because GFS is definitely more bullish than the European model.

During this time frame we may see an inland trough and potential low look to form off the Far South Coast, as well as a possible tropical low off the QLD coast.  The low off the South Coast could see some sizey E/NE swell for East Tas late next weekend. It’s possible we may see something juicy spin up next weekend so tune in for details on Mon. 

Seeya then and have a great weekend!