Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of S swell Tues with good winds
• S/SE reinforcing pulse later Tues, holding into Wed
• Easing swells Thurs/Fri
• NE windswell next weekend, peaking Sun
• Small l S pulses next week
• Small E/NE swells filtering down from tropics later next week

Recap

Tiny S swells Sat built into the 3-4ft range Sun with size increasing further today into the 5-6ft range at S faience beaches under fresh SW winds now tending variable then N’ly in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Mar4 -Mar15) 

We currently have a deep, winter-calibre double-headed low traversing the lower Tasman. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a long fetch of severe gales in the southern swell window and wave buoys are all in an aggressive upwards curve as strong S swells propagate along the Southern NSW Coastline after making landfall in Tasmania. We’ll see strong pulses of swell from this system until mid-week with easing leftovers until the end of the working week. To the north an extended trade-wind fetch is setting up through the week with another long playing E’ly swell event from that pattern, favouring the sub-tropics for size. More small S pulses are also on the radar.

In the short run, plenty of size though tomorrow with sets to 6ft+ at S facing beaches and N’ly winds on tap.

Wed also looks good with leftover S swell to 3ft rebuilding under a fresh S/SE pulse to 3-5ft from the morning. Winds should be great, offshore W/NW through to NW as a front passes under the state with a late S change.

By Thurs we’ll see easing swells with leftover S/SE swell to 3ft early, dropping back to 2ft or less during the day. 

Tiny surf for Fri with small leftover from the S to 1-2ft and E/NE-NE winds as high pressure drifts E of the state.

Those winds then ramp up over the weekend, forming a useful fetch of NE winds and a building NE windswell through Sat into the 2-3ft range, building further Sun into the 3-4ft range with NW winds before a late S’ly change as a front passes below the state, bringing some small S swell wrap into Mon.

Into next week and along with small S swell Mon we’ll see minor levels of small S swell wrap Tues and Wed from fronts passing under the state  we’ll be relying on small amounts of E/NE swell filtering down from the top of the high pressure belt which starts to extend down into the Northern Tasman late this week. That won’t see much more than 1-2ft surf for NETas with the possibility of a little more size towards the end of the week if the fetch ramps up from tropical low pressure drifting south.

Check back Wed and see how it’s shaping up. Until then, plenty of strong S swell to deal with.