Tricky though generally fun westerly swells to work with over the coming period.
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Generally clean and fun swells though from a westerly direction, stronger and larger early next week.
Clean fun waves tomorrow, with a new swell for Wed/Thu, best as it eases. Plenty of activity into next week.
Plenty of swell but generally average conditions on the weekend, much better early next week.
By and large, this weather progression has so far been aimed out of the South Arm’s swell window - up until this afternoon. The storm track’s been a little too north, so the resulting swell direction to date has been quite west, or even north-west across Tasmanian latitudes.
A complex series of powerful lows will track across Tasmanian longitudes from Monday onwards, delivering W/NW tending W’ly gales and building strong surf across the region.
We’re in the midst of a regional blocking pattern with the main influence for our region being a stationary belt of high pressure across the Southern Ocean, stretching from underneath Western Australia through South Australia to a position below Tasmania.
In Tuesday’s notes, I mentioned an intensifying polar low well below WA for Friday that had the possibility of generating a small unusual sideband SW swell for Sunday afternoon.
Although the synoptics look very impressive, this low is travelling a little more north in latitude than is ideal and this will impact size potential through the South Arm.
No lack of surf over the coming period but winds will be tricky and variable.