Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th August)

Best Days: Beginners Saturday, Monday afternoon, possibly Tuesday morning, Wednesday

Recap

Tiny yesterday, with today's new W/SW groundswell coming in at a good 2ft with generally light winds, better than expected.

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This weekend and next week (Aug 17 – 23)

Tomorrow still looks great for beginners, with today's swell easing away with favourable N/NW tending N/NE winds.

Sunday will be tiny to flat, with our next increase in swell occurring on Monday.

This will be a long-period and good W/SW groundswell, generated by a strong polar low that's currently develop south-southwest of WA.

A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds are being generated in our western swell window, with the low due to continue east over the coming days while weakening. A front associated with the low will then push through early Monday morning, with a tight embedded fetch of W/SW gales due to move under us into the afternoon.

This will add some additional W/SW windswell to the mix, but looking at the groundswell and we should see Clifton building to an easy 3ft into the afternoon, if not for the sneaky 4ft'er in the mix.

Winds will be an issue though but improving, W/SW early and shifting more W/NW through the afternoon.

Winds may be onshore Tuesday morning in the wake of Monday's embedded front as the swell eases, but the models diverge on this, so we'll have a closer look at this in Monday's update.

Following Monday's swell we'll see continued frontal activity moving in from the west, but not overly strong and in our western swell window. At this stage surf between 2-3ft is expected, but moving into the end of the week, the frontal activity will take a more south to north track under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough across New Zealand.

This will angle winds and swell more S'ly into Thursday, though onshore and poor in quality. Not too much size is expected off these developments, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!