Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed March 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Offshore winds most of this week as complex low becomes slow moving 
• Traces of S swell Thurs/Fri
• Longer period  S swell Sun/peaking Mon
• Another round of NE windswell likely next week, Tues/Wed

Recap

Fun sized NE swell to 2-3ft on Tues groomed by NW-W winds supplied fun waves. Today has seen tiny surf with offshore winds, as traces of S swell wrap in.

This week and next week (Mar 8 - Mar17)

The complex low pressure gyre is slowly moving under Tasmania with the majority of any swell generating winds in the swell shadow of Tasmania. Hot air being dragged down from tropical Australia is now slowly being displaced by the cooler air from the Southern Ocean and driving a synoptic W’ly flow across Eastern Tasmania. 

In the short run and W’ly winds continue through until the end of the week as the slow moving low continues to influence the weather. Not much surf to go with it- just traces of S swell wrap in the 1-2ft range and traces of NE swell around a foot.

Into the weekend and more tiny surf Sat with offshore winds- good for diving.

By Sunday a last following fetch linked to a deep low (see below) brings a new pulse of S swell - up into the 2ft range with light SE winds. This pulse peaks further into Mon as longer period swell trains from a deeper S’ly fetch of gales make landfall with sets to 3ft at S facing beaches. By Mon we’ll see high pressure move across Tasmania with weak E’ly breezes expected. 

Source of S swell Sun/Mon

The high moves rapidly NE into the Tasman next week and that puts us back into NE windswell territory as winds increase off the South Coast and down to Bass Strait.

 Small surf is expected Tues with NE windswell in the 2-3ft range building through Wed, and easing Thurs, as an approaching low shunts the fetch eastwards. 

That low is likely to supply S swell next weekend but we’ll dial in specifics as we get closer to the event.

Check back Fri for the latest.