Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon February 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S’ly winds and swell Tues 
• Pulses of long period S swell this week, Thurs, biggest Sat
• Spike in short range S swell Fri
• NE windswell likely to develop Sun, peaking Mon with winds tending offshore

Recap

Quite a few fun waves over the weekend with NE windswell Sat in the 4ft range with winds tending NW. Sunday dropped quickly into the 2ft range with winds SW early before tending SE. Today we are seeing S swell in the 2-3ft range with fresh S’ly winds laying down and tending mod S/SE through the day.

This week and next week (Feb 27 - Mar10)

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea- with a stalled trough near the lower end of the Mid North Coast and a very active monsoon trough across Northern Australia and extending into the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across Eastern Tasmania this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential. Let’s drill down.

In the short run and S’ly winds tend variable then N’ly tomorrow, freshening in the a’noon.  S swell eases quickly from 2ft at S facing beaches back to tiny during the day and stays small for Wed, with variable winds as a trough hovers about the East Coast.

Winds should stay light and variable for Thurs as weak troughs linger about the NE of the state. A passing front and deep polar low looks to supply small amounts of refracted S swell through the a’noon into the 2ft range. 

By Fri the trough will bring a S’ly change with a quick spike in S swell to 3ft with fresh S’ly winds easing during the day and tending SE in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and the parent polar low stalls Thurs/Fri (see below) sending long period S swell making landfall Sat in the 2-3ft range with variable winds as high pressure moves over the state. 

Deep polar low sends S swell this weekend

The high quickly moves NE of the state with NE winds forming off the NSW South Coast on Sunday and generating NE windswell through the day- possibly peaking as high as 3-5ft in the a’noon. We’ll finesse size and timing as we go through this week.

Next week sees a Mon peak in NE windswell with a front/trough bringing offshore winds.

Surf then eases through Tues/Wed with only small NE swells expected.

Lots of model divergence between major models through mid next week with GFS suggesting a trough stalling on the Mid North Coast, with a mid-latitude low near Tasmania and continuing N’ly winds and small NE windswell.

EC suggests S’ly flow later next week and a sizeable low moving into the lower Tasman through the same period and S swell on the menu for later next week and the weekend.

We’ll flag those possibilities for now and check back Wed to see how it’s shaping up.

See ya then.