Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed March 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Pulses of long period S swell this week, Thurs, biggest Sat
• Spike in short range S swell Fri
• NE windswell likely to develop Sun, peaking Mon with winds tending offshore
• Offshore winds most of next week as complex low becomes slow moving 
• S swell pulses likely from Wed next week from low- stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Small S swell yesterday in the 1-2ft range with light winds which tended N’ly in the a’noon. Today has seen even smaller surf in the 1ft range at S facing beaches with light/variable winds tending SE in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Mar 1 - Mar10)

Lots of action on the charts but not much of it will translate to much surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The tropics remains active with a monsoon trough and convective activity strewn across the Top End, while the edge of the trough in the South Pacific has spawned TC Judy, with another system behind it. Both of those systems are now modelled to track quickly SE through the swell window with no major swells generated. Further south a deep polar low and frontal system is generating large swells, with traces of long period S swell refracting back into Eastern Tas over the coming days. A weak, troughy pattern is NE of Tas now with a high pressure system expected to drift over the state through Fri. 

In the short run we’ll see light/variable winds through tomorrow with small surf to start with and an increase in refracted S swell to 2ft through the a’noon at S facing beaches.

A front tips the state Fri with winds swinging SW-S before clocking around SE-NE in the a’noon. The front ushers in more S swell in the 3ft range at S facing beaches, easing during the day.

Into the weekend and light winds Sat coincide with one last pulse of long period S swell from the polar low. Expect light winds early with a’noon sea breezes and sets to 3ft early, slowly easing during the day. 

By Sunday the high will have moved NE into the Tasman Sea with increasing N/NE winds along the coast and a developing fetch of N/NE winds off the Gippsland coast down  to Bass Strait. That looks the goods for generating a chunky NE windswell up into the 4ft range during the a’noon with mod/fresh NE winds tending more N’ly in the a’noon.

This NE windswell looks to drop out quickly Mon under fresh W’ly winds as a complex low and fronts push across Tas. Expect offshore wind and easing NE swell with a possibility of S swell later in the day.

We may see a reinforcing pulse of better quality NE swell Tues as the fetch lingers off the NSW South Coast.

Further into next week and surf will be dominated by the large complex low which slowly moves past Tas from Mon next week (see below), likely remaining the dominant feature until next weekend.

That should see S swell pulses Thurs/Fri in the 3ft range but we’ll dial in size and timing as we get closer to the event. 

Check back Fri for the latest.