Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell likely to develop Sun, peaking Mon with winds tending offshore, lingering Tues/Wed
• Offshore winds most of next week as complex low becomes slow moving 
• S swell pulse Thurs, slightly bigger Fri
• Longer period  S swell Sun/peaking Mon
• Another round of NE windswell likely next week, Tues/Wed

Recap

Fun sized S swell to 2-3ft on Sat with light NE winds transformed into chunky NE windswell Sun to 4-5ft with fresh N’lies. Today has seen easing but still solid NE swell to 3ft with offshore W’ly winds.

Plenty of size today with offshore winds

This week and next week (Mar 6 - Mar17)

The synoptic set-up is split into two opposing camps at present with an active monsoon trough and monsoonal low in the Gulf of Carpentaria linked to an inland trough which is drawing down hot air from the Pilbara into NSW and Victoria. Opposed to the strong tropical signal we have a large complex low pressure gyre approaching from the Southern Ocean, with a much cooler airmass expected across Tasmania this week. Unfortunately this strong cold outbreak now looks to stall just too far West (behind the swell shadow of Tasmania) to really deliver any strong S swell to the East Coast, before weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea swell window proper. We will see small S swell pulses.

In the short run and a fresh NW-W/NW flow continues across Tas as the large low pressure gyre approaches. A fetch of N’ly winds which freshened off the NSW Central Coast today is expected to see another bump in NE swell for NETas though tomorrow with size pushing back up into the 2-3ft range during the day, groomed by offshore winds. 

Offshore winds continue through Wed with NE swell leftovers to 1-2ft and some small S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches in the a’noon as S swell wraps in from the low.

W’ly winds will start to clock around W/SW on Thurs as the low pressure gyre finally starts to move E of the Island. Small levels of S swell wrap maintain 1-2ft of S swell at S facing beaches. Tiny/flat elsewhere.

Friday sees a peak in S swell wrap with 2ft sets at S facing beaches and winds tending more NW through the day as a small trough passes to the N. Clean conditions are on hand.

Into the weekend and a following low behind the main gyre brings a reinforcing pulse of S swell through Sunday with sets to 2ft +. Sat will be tiny with small leftover and light/variable winds. Expect winds to tend S-SSE on Sunday and freshen as a new high pressure ridge builds in across the state’s East Coast.

This ridge quickly relaxes next week as the high moves NE past Tas and sets up a N’ly fetch adjacent to the Island. Mon sees a mix of short range S swell from the change on Sunday and longer period S swell in the 3ft range. Light winds are expected.

Good odds for another round of NE windswell, possibly sizey on Tues as the N’ly fetch sets up. Expect size to build Tues, possibly up into the 3-4ft range and ease through Wed as the fetch gets shunted Eastwards.

Check back Wed and we’ll take a fresh look at size and timing.