Surf-wise the tradewind fetch will be chugging away and like all tradewind fetches once we get a fully developed sea state we should see an improvement in size and quality.

The deep Tasman low near the North Island has now dissipated and left the building with a small low in the Central/Southern Tasman supplying small S swells and an even smaller trough of low pressure off the Far North Coast directing SE winds onto the coast. This pattern remains slow moving as large high slowly approaches from South of the Bight and multiple inland troughs supply unstable weather. 

The evolution of the surface low in the sub-tropics is complicated and running a little behind schedule, but as we suggested on Wed we’ll see the remnants of severe TC Lola drift into and become absorbed into the large low centre over the weekend as it approaches the North Island.

Late in the week, a combination of inland upper trough and a long angled trough extending from TC Lola remnants is expected to form a powerful surface low off the sub-tropical NSW Coast (likely between Lord Howe and Norfolk Is). As modelled, gales will produce a large E’ly quadrant swell event, with maximum size in Northern NSW, grading smaller into temperate NSW. A secondary October surprise that looks to be a major swell producer.