South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E'ly swell holding through most of this week
• Spike in S-S/SE swell Thurs, holding into Fri with fresh S’ly winds Thurs, easing Fri
• Light winds over the weekend with potential for fun beachbreaks
• SE surge next week then more E’ly trade swell over Easter

Recap

E swell keeps on keeping on with size yesterday in the 3 occ. 4ft range and a smidge bigger today (4 occ. bigger sets with Tweed-Byron area topping out the scale). Light winds both mornings with glassy to semi-glassy conditions on the beachies and light E’ly winds through the day not affecting the Points too much.

It feels never ending at this point

This week (Mar 20-22)

A front linked to a low passing under Tasmania  and a trough linked to ex TC Megan in the Northern Territory are making their way up the NSW South Coast at present, bringing a stiff S’ly flow, with a strong high pressure belt running at Summer latitudes anchored by slow moving cells near New Zealand and in the Bight. The NZ high and a long monsoon trough has generated a useful fetch of tradewinds in the eastern swell window, which has maintained E’ly swells in the sub-tropics, E/NE in temperate regions. That trade fetch breaks down in the short term before rebuilding again at more Northern latitudes. We’ll see some frontal activity over the weekend before another strong, blocking high sets up a ridge next week. 

Not much change for the short run - E’ly swells still chugging away in the 3-4ft range (with a few bigger sets) and a stiff S’ly change working it’s way north. That change looks to be in before first light on the MNC, first light around Yamba and early morning Ballina-Byron, reaching the border mid-morning. We’ll see a window of lighter winds in those areas ahead of the change that have some morning light to play with. Once winds kick in it’ll be points only. Expect a sharp rise in new S-S/SE swell through the a’noon, up to 4-5ft in NENSW, smaller by a notch in SEQLD. 

That S/SE-SE surge persists into Fri. At least through the morning so expect fresh winds and plenty of short range S/SE-SE swell to 4-5ft across the region. It does slacken fairly quickly as the trough moves away and dissipates so we should see winds ease back markedly through Fri a’noon, along with an easing in short range SE swell. That ultra persistent mid period trade swell will hang in there in the 3ft range through this period, with some occ. 4ft sets more likely north of Byron.

This weekend (Mar 23-24)

Size will be down a notch this weekend as the bulk of the tradewind fetch migrates eastwards and becomes more scattered after the SE surge. There’ll still be enough energy n the Coral Sea too hold E’ly swells in the 3ft range Sat, down a notch into Sun. It’ll get slower and sleepier though as the energy slowly drains out of the tradeswell. 

Luckily, light winds look like allowing crowds to spread out across beachbreaks over the weekend although the biggest question mark is on the Sunshine Coast where SE winds will remain more persistent. Elsewhere, light morning land breezes look to tend to light SE breezes in the a’noon. 

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

Expect a light wind small swell combo to start off next week as a weak, troughy area lingers about the SEQlLD region. Fun beachies in the 2ft range should the on offer to start the new week.

Stronger frontal activity tied to robust lows passes into the southern swell window Sun/Mon and Mon/Tues so we’ll see some stronger S swell pulses likely Tues/Wed, penciled in around 2-3ft at S facing beaches, in NENSW smaller in SEQLD.

Winds look OK Tues before a troughy change brings S’ly winds o/night into Wed and these will become entrenched sou-easters likely through Wed and Thurs as the large high pressure cell near Tasmania sets up a ridge along the NSW coast. The SE surge looks to bring plenty of local swell in the 3-5ft range (we’ll finesse that Fri) through Thurs, into Fri.
We should see that ridge persist into the Easter weekend with the blocking high shutting down the S swell window. 

Looks like more E’ly trade style swells over Easter although ECMWF is suggesting an inland trough focussing a NE infeed along the temperate NSW Coast, with chunky NE windswell a possibility, although accompanied by onshore winds and likely bad weather. 

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.