South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wednesday April 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building E-E/NE windswell Fri with light morning offshores from SWR north, strong E/NE to the south
• Large, stormy E/NE swell on the lower MNC Sat with strong N/NE-NE winds
• Small-moderate E'ly swell building across northern locations Sat PM, further Sun PM, easing slowly Mon
• Moderate N/NW tending strong N/NE winds Sat
• NW tending NE winds Sun
• W/SW-SW winds Mon AM to about Byron, shifting S/SE into the PM. NW tending NE winds north of Byron
• NW tending NE winds Tue with easing E swell
• Small, easing E swell Wed with strong SW tending S/SE winds

Recap

Not much happening surf-wise with tiny surf yesterday. Today has seen small, glassy surf early in SEQLD with more size the further south of the border you go, topping out around 3-4ft on the MNC. Lighter winds in the north, more onshore E/NE-NE in the south as a coastal trough drifts southwards. A general building trend to 2-3ft has been observed from late morning in SEQLD and Far NENSW.

Keep an eye on winds this weekend- periods of light/variable or even offshore winds are possible with fun E swell

This weekend (Apr 6-7)

We’ve got large peanut shaped high centred over Tasmania with lobes in the Bight and Tasman Sea. The moist onshore flow from this set-up is flowing into a coastal trough and interior low bringing onshore winds and rain as well as developing E swell. We’ll eventually see the low and trough clear the coast bringing better winds Sun/Mon with some strong S swell on the menu for next week from Tasman Sea and deeper sources.

Tricky wind for Saturday’s outlook. We’ve still got troughy areas lingering on the coast so a general N’ly flow feeding into the trough is expected. Any small circulation that does form may see winds shift more NW-W and we’ve seen that happening over the past couple of days. Surf-wise we’ll see E’ly swells in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3-4ft on the MNC.  It’s a highly dynamic, fluid system so if you can keep tabs on local winds there is a chance of scoring some windows of lighter or even offshore winds.

Sunday looks similar as the inland  low exits the Gippsland coast but the coastal trough remains with a continuing light N’ly flow that may have better NW-W winds at times. Surf-wise we’ll see continuing fun levels of E-E/NE swell in the 3ft range. The MNC may see some long period S’ly groundswell show in the a’noon to 3ft at S facing beaches, with a few sets possible across the rest of NENSW through the later a’noon.

Next week (Apr 8 onwards)

Lingering troughiness and light winds for Mon with morning offshores tending to light N-NE breezes in the a’noon. The fetch of winds feeding into the trough will have retreated but should hold 3ft of E-E/NE swell, easing a notch during the day. S’ly groundswell will be on the wane but some early 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches should be super clean, before easing later in the day.

Those light winds continue through Tues so get in early for some clean 2-3 footers. We’ll see a front combine with the lingering troughiness to potentially form a surface low in the Tasman on Tues. Under current modelling we’d expect strong S’ly winds to form o/night Tues into Wed and that  should see a fairly steep rise in new S swell through Wed, building to 4-5ft across NENSW in the a’noon, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD by close of play. Residual E swell will hold some fun 2ft surf in the meantime.

Strong S’lies again for Thurs as the low potentially strengthens and the fetch elongates through the Tasman. There’s still some model uncertainty here so we’ll see how it looks Mon but for now we can pencil in strong S swell to at least 5-6ft at NENSW S exposed breaks smaller in SEQLD and at spots protected from the S’ly wind. Small E swell will also be in the mix likely to 2 occ. 3ft.

We should see plenty  of S/SE swell for Fri, with a slow easing trend in play for Sat  as the low slowly drifts NE towards the North Island. We’ll revise on Mon but size in the 4-5ft range for Fri , easing to 3-4ft for Sat is on the cards. Smaller by a foot at least in SEQLD.

Further ahead we’ll see strong frontal activity below the continent and steered up into the far lower Tasman next week bringing S’ly groundswell pulses. We’ll see how they shape up on Mon but later next weekend  is looking good for S’ly groundswell with light winds and that pattern should extend into early week beginning 15/4.

We’ll see how it’s shaping up on Mon. 

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!