South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell for NNSW Sat, easing Sun AM then re-pulsing into the a'noon (maybe just MNC), gen OK conditions with light winds
• Small waves all weekend in SE Qld, OK conditions with lingering SE breezes, lighter on Sun
• Persistent S swells early next week, not much north of the border
• More dynamic outlook from mid next week 
• S swell spike likely Thurs, easing Fri
• Possible sizey SE swell next weekend if low/trough forms in Northern Tasman, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

S-S/SE swells showed some 3ft sets at NENSW S exposed breaks yesterday with an underlying small E swell to 2 occ. 3ft supplying most of the energy north of the border. Clean conditions early tended to blown out surf away from Points as SE-E/SE winds kicked in. Similar conditions this morning with mostly small E swell to 2ft and a small S swell to 2-3ft at NENSW S exposed breaks. Nothing amazing for Good Friday but a small surf on offer for most.

Small but fun beachie options in NENSW at spots with S swell exposure

This weekend (Mar 30-31)

It’s quite a bland synoptic outlook with a large area of high pressure moving into the Tasman and becoming slow moving as it weakens. Only minor action from the E is expected from a northwards positioned SE flow in the Coral Sea. Adding to that source south of the border we’ll see some small S’ly pulses over the Easter long weekend. 

Not much change for Saturdays outlook. A building high pressure ridge will see mod SE winds across SEQLD, with lighter winds the further south you go, likely SW for the early across most of NENSW, especially south of Byron. A frontal passage will see some small S swell in NENSW, offering up 2 occ. 3ft sets and there should be a few surfable options at beaches with reasonable S swell exposure, even if true magnets are a bit wind affected.

Not much more than 1-2ft across most of SEQLD, apart from the best swell magnets close to the border. 

That swell eases slightly into Sun with some small reinforcements from the S/SE generated by an ice shelf fetch mid-week. As Ben noted on Wed, it’s a flukey source so keep expectations pegged low. Winds should ease off through Sun with a longer period of morning offshore winds in NENSW,and lighter breezes in SEQLD. All in all, conditions will be favourable for S exposed breaks  in NENSW over the weekend but keep froth in check due to the low confidence in swell strengths. In SEQLD we’re still looking at small, background E swell topping out at 2ft. 

Next week (Apr 1 onwards)

S/SE swell should hold in at low levels into Mon with some inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets across NENSW, easing during the day to a low energy a’noon. Light winds through the morning should tend to weak SE breezes in the a’noon so it looks good for an all day affair if you can find a nice bank somewhere hoovering up the swell on offer.

Light winds o/night into Tues should see clean conditions through Tues morning before a N’ly flow develops as a trough low approaches the Gippsland coast and a troughy area hovers over interior SEQLD . We’ll just a see a small, low energy blend of swell Tues, mostly E’ly to 1-2ft, likely declining even further into Wed. 

From Wed onwards we’ll see a much more dynamic pattern in the Tasman. The inland low will exit near the Gippsland coast and conjoin with a front as a major new high pushes in behind from the Bight. As the low moves eastwards we’ll see SW-S winds in the swell window, leading to a spike in new S swell possibly as early as late Wed on the MNC and into Thurs, provisionally into the 3ft range at S facing beaches but with revisions likely on size and timing.

A trough further north in the Tasman is then expected to deepen and focus a strong SE-E/SE fetch across the central /northern tasman later next week. This has the potential to form a surface low off the North or Mid North Coast and generate sizey swells from the SE late next week into the weekend along with some E swell from winds inferring into the low/trough system. We may see a few stormy, onshore days if this system comes off, although there is potential for offshore winds to develop if a close low forms and moves south late next week.  Too early to have any confidence in size or timing but we’ll pencil in the potential for 4-5ft surf next weekend with uncertain winds and see how it looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great Easter weekend!