South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Mar 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Light winds looks to persist early this week, stronger E'ly on the Gold Coast
• Fun sized S swell Tues at S facing beaches, easing Wed
• Small, weak E swell pad out most of this week
• More S swell Fri into Sat
• SE winds redevelop Thurs-Sat
• Small mixed bag this weekend with SE winds easing 
• S/SE groundswell later Sun, holding Mon
• Outlook generally subdued for week after Easter but a few swell sources on the radar- check back Wed for latest update

Recap

A fun weekend of small, mostly clean surf with Sat seeing 2-3ft surf from the S/SE with some bigger sets to 3ft+ at S swell magnets in NENSW. Light SW-S winds in NENSW  with a more persistent SE flow north of the border. Still some 2-3ft surf around on Sun with more widespread clean conditions and today has seen smaller S swell to 2ft with the exception of the MNC which has picked up some S swell energy and is showing sets to 3-4ft.

Strong sets on the MNC this morning

This week (Mar 25-29)

We’ve got an extensive high pressure belt  with weak cells in the Tasman and near Indian Ocean and a stronger cell in the Bight. Compared to summer high pressure we’re seeing a slight seasonal shift northwards in the belt although later in the week the strong high in the Bight does move towards Tasmania at a more typical summer latitude. For now, frontal activity is being allowed to track in a more favourable manner for S swell production so we’ll see a week of small/moderate S swell pulses as well as some minor E swell leading into the Easter weekend. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see tricky winds for the region. Light and variable in NENSW tending to weak seabreezes. A small trough of low pressure off the SEQLD coast looks to direct a stronger E’ly flow across the Gold Coast, with the Sunshine Coast potentially seeing lighter SW-S winds through Tues and into Wed.

We’ll see S swells build across NENSW tomorrow with some 2-3ft sets on offer and a few bigger 4ft waves at better known S swell magnets. That swell will show later and smaller in SEQLD with some 2ft surf at S swell magnets in the a’noon. Small E swells from a weak trade fetch will hold 2ft surf in SEQLD with some slightly larger local E swell to 2-3ft on the Gold Coast.

Wed morning will see lingering 3ft surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW, easing during the day under light winds. Smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at the best S swell magnets and northern corners with an underlying weak E swell holding 2ft surf.

The approaching high moves east of Tasmania and sets up a ridge through Thurs and into Fri so we’ll see that S/SE-SE flow start to increase, although there’s still a chance for land breezes in NENSW during this period. 

A small blend of E and easing S swells will hold some 2ft surf across the region with a few bigger sets at S swell magnets in NENSW through Thurs. 

Friday looks a notch more energetic in NENSW as the next pulse of S swell fills in through the a’noon. None of the fetches are especially well aligned for the East Coast but they will be operating on already active sea states so there’s reason to believe they may out perform wave model predictions. Apart from lingering small E swell to 2ft we’ll see S swell rebuild to 2-3ft across NENSW S exposed breaks in the a’noon with this swell just tickling the border by close of play. 

This weekend (Mar 30-31)

Winds should slowly ease over the weekend as the ridge starts to break down. We’ll still see mod strength S/SE-SE winds through Sat, lighter in NENSW. A mix of local SE and S swells should offer up workable 3ft surf in NENSW breaks with S exposure, smaller 2ft in SEQLD apart from a few select S swell magnets.

Sun looks a little more interesting. A stalled low well to the S of New Zealand Wed/Thurs with a fetch adjacent to the ice shelf supplies some inconsistent but high quality S/SE swell to 2-3ft through the day in NENSW. Smaller in SEQLD with most beaches in the 2ft range. Easing winds Sun should see morning SW breezes and clean conditions.

Next week (Apr 1 onwards)

S/SE swell looks to persist into Mon with size to 3ft in NENSW, a notch smaller in SEQLD, although likely with an easing trend, under light winds.

More small S swell is on the menu next week but there are some potential curve balls in the mix. 

The high in the Tasman holds a weak tradewind fetch which will put a floor under wave heights in the 2ft range- so it will remain surfable across the beachies.

We may see a trough develop off the Central NSW coast early next week with a possibility it may deepen into a useful source of S/SE swell mid next week.

Models are offering mixed messages about the strength of the southern ocean storm track with EC favouring a much broader and stronger fetch next week, offering more energy available to wrap into the Tasman Sea, with size favouring NENSW. 

We’re also tracking the potential evolution of an inland trough and low next week and while there is nothing concrete on the radar, set-ups like this do offer raw material for low pressure development in the Tasman, potentially ECL’s or other types of low pressure system.

We’ll see how all that shapes up on Wed.