East swell keeps chugging away this week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Mar 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • S/SE groundswell for Northern NSW Sun PM and Mon
  • E'ly swell holding through most of next week
  • Spike in S-S/SE swell Thurs, holding into Fri with fresh S’ly winds Thurs, easing Fri
  • Light winds over the weekend with potential for fun beachbreaks
  • More E swell next week, at reduced levels

Recap

The weekend ran close to script with strong SE winds Sat confining surfable options to protected points- mostly in the 3ft range. Winds eased off Sun and both size and quality lifted a notch allowing for a fun spread of surf across regional points and anywhere with a modicum of protection from S’ly winds. Surf was running at similar sizes this morning (3-4ft) with a light onshore flow not affecting wave quality too much. Mostly E’ly swell but there was some visible S/SE groundswell showing in the 2-3ft range in NENSW.

A few fun sets Sun morning

This week (Mar 18-22)

Pretty typical late Summer pattern with a high in the Tasman and a maturing trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea, linked to an active monsoon trough with a small embedded low in the Coral Sea. There is a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria which formed over the weekend but this system is expected to track inland over the NT and Kimberley regions and not be a swell source for the East Coast. We’ll see this pattern disrupted mid-week by an aggressive trough which brings S winds and swell before the next high slowly resets the trade pattern, this time further north in the Coral Sea.


In the short run we’ll see a continuation of moderate E’ly swells. Certainly nothing special compared to last weeks swell but size will hold on the 3ft+ range Tues, bigger by a notch (4ft) on Wed . Light E’ly winds north from the border with a more E/NE-NE flow as you head south from Byron. We may see that onshore flow light enough for land breezes to develop over the next couple of mornings but we’re still not quite there for that classic autumn morning pattern.

By Thurs a trough will be aggressively pushing up the coast, into Coffs by first light, and across the Northern Rivers by early morning.  A brief window of slack winds north of Byron will be extended in time north of the border before the change and offers clean conditions before strong S’lies develop. We’ll see a spike in new short range S-S/SE swell through the a’noon with size up to 3-5ft in the a’noon across exposed outer Points, bigger on S facing beaches which will be a blown out mess.

The S/SE swell spike persists into Fri at similar size but will ease through the day as the trough moves away quickly. Expect 3-5ft surf across the Points, with SE winds and an easing trend in play for S/SE swell in the a’noon, held up by continuing E swell to 3ft.

This weekend (Mar 23-24)

Generally easing winds this weekend. Pressure gradients ease and morning land breezes look likely, at least through NENSW up into the southern Gold Coast. Those winds will tend light/mod SE through the a’noon.

Swell tap is mostly turned off though so you’ll need to be ready to grovel. 

The tradewind band contracts eastwards later this week so that swell source will slowly ease across the weekend. It should hold in the 3-4ft range Sat, dropping slowly back to 2-3ft into Sun.

If winds co-operate we should see some fun beachies across the weekend to spread the crowd

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

Small start to next week with reinforcing high pressure gradually shifting into the Tasman early next week. We should see a day of light winds Mon with small E swells to 2ft.

From there tradewinds rebuild in the Coral Sea, albeit at more subdued levels . It should be sufficient to see surf build back to 3ft or so for most of next week. Small S swell pulses may add some extra energy to NENSW S facing beaches early next week.
In short, nothing major on the radar but a few swell sources that should offer up some rideable options.

Check back Wed for the latest. 

Comments

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 4:14pm

Your images aren’t showing Steve. At least not at my end.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 4:19pm

Hmm, showing OK here. Can you please try again?

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 4:38pm

They're fine for me mate

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 4:37pm

Re booted the iPhone
I’m getting a tiny blue square with a question mark in the middle of the image space. Same the other day with a Stu article. Can’t remember which one.
Can see images elsewhere on the site.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 4:42pm

Just done a quick squiz at other articles and same. Anyone know what could be wrong at my end?
IMG-5543

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 4:50pm

I'd give the browser and computer and reboot.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 5:22pm

It's an Imgur hosted image so should be fine.

Do you have another browser on your phone, like Chrome?

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 5:36pm

Hey Ben
Yes I’m using Chrome.
I’ve rebooted
I’ve looked for any issues in settings. May have been a man look though

fcalmon's picture
fcalmon's picture
fcalmon Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 6:32pm

seems to be a 404 (not found) issue.

try opening this: https://i.imgur.com/n1oq0mE.png

I have the same issue

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 7:12pm

I opened it. Just another little symbol as before

fcalmon's picture
fcalmon's picture
fcalmon Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 7:22pm

Yes, that means the issue is with Imgur. Could be that they are down, Swellnet account is full, etc….

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 7:54pm

Nah all works fine here. No limit on accounts either.

fcalmon's picture
fcalmon's picture
fcalmon Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 12:42pm

Hi Ben,
Interesting, works on my laptop but still not working on my phone....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 12:56pm

Same browser on phone as per laptop?

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 3:28pm

That’s a yes for me.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 3:40pm

I'm genuinely baffled.

Just out of interest, can you see this photo of D'Bah?

https://www.swellnet.com/comment/943848#comment-943848

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 4:24pm

No Ben
Just the text and little blue question mark symbol

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 4:26pm

I can honestly say I haven’t changed a thing on my phone. Started last week sometime.

get.coned's picture
get.coned's picture
get.coned Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 5:07pm

Hi Ben,
FYI - I have the same issue using chrome on IOS.
The header image on articles displays but not ones in the body.

I can see the screenshot Seeds posted in the comments but not the D'Bah one you linked.

All works fine in Safari / on other devices

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 5:19pm

I just deleted chrome and re installed
Still have the problem. No issues with Safari or Duck Duck Go

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 5:38pm

My screenshot was posted using imgbb no problems there
Seems it’s just Imgur images

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 4:27pm
seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 5:29pm

Thanks Sprout. Tried them. No luck.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 9:58pm

Gah, spewing. Is your phone old/still supported? Perhaps outdated? Clutching at straws, all the best.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 10:51pm

iPhone 12

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 12:18pm

Well well every image has decided to reveal itself today.
How about you fcalmon and get.coned?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 12:17pm

And.. we haven't changed a thing.

Baffling!

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 12:19pm

Nothing changed at my end either.
Baffling alright!

get.coned's picture
get.coned's picture
get.coned Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 5:07pm

Yep working fine for me now!

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Mar 2024 at 7:30pm

Thanks
Way over my head.

simsurf's picture
simsurf's picture
simsurf Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 4:46pm

Swell is around, but quality is low still.

5m swell next Thursday????

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 19 Mar 2024 at 9:05pm

Hey Ben / Stu (not sure where else to address this):

Why did you delete my comment about ‘Legrope War Lost at the Pass?’ Was just on and now gone?

Something sensitive ?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 6:48am

You recall the link attached? We've been through this before.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 10:59am

You might be mistaken (or my memory bad) but I don’t believe I’ve been through this with you.

Ok I get it. Apologies. Surprises me you guys worry about that place. Your house, your rules.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:27am

The last time was August 30th, 2023. First time about a month before that.

If it surprises you then you clearly have no idea what's happening.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 7:59am

The surf site that shall not be named.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:29am

No problem naming them, nor any other site, yet in the battle of David and Goliath, Davo needn't make his opponents job any easier.

hazcam's picture
hazcam's picture
hazcam Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 10:04am

Just kept getting better and better this morn, proper kegs, very surprised it was just me and a young fella who was getting one in before school. Crew must be surfed out. Been surfing that much feels like I'm on a trip

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:04am

Almost carbon copy this morning of yesty, though a smidge bigger on the sets (4-5ft easy). Lotta water moving through creating a strange lineup (many waves won't break, then the last one in the set is top-to-bottom), I'm pretty sure it's to do with overlapping swell trains and the associated infragravity waves.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:09am

We've had a pretty severe hair cut to the banks here since that last big E swell barrage, so was barely breaking on the high tide this morning.
Actually looked smaller, although as tide started to drain you could see more energy.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:24am

Yeh I was surprised to find there were any beachies left after that swell. Checked a few northern ends this morn and banks look pretty rubbish.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:33am

yep banks that were getting good over xmas now wide and shit........hate endless east swells as they do nothing around here except fuk things up.........piss off la nina or whatever you are.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 20 Mar 2024 at 11:46am

^ this.