In fact, it becomes reinforced by a new high and this peanut high straddling Tasmania will hold a firm ridge along most of the Eastern Seaboard with another working week of SE winds, gradually backing off into the weekend. A stalled trough looks to linger off the coast bringing plenty of unstable weather and possibly windows of lighter winds
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Monster high pressure has barely budged since Wed, maintaining a S-SE flow right up the Eastern Seaboard, with a coastal trough ensuring plenty of unstable, rainy weather.
With a widespread E-SE wind field in the Tasman at a minimum we’ll see moderate amounts of E/SE-E swell through the first half of next week with another round of fun surf on the Points.
A trough of low pressure NE of the North Island is deepening today but moving southwards at a clip through the swell window with reduced swell potential compared to Fridays notes.
At issue is a trough in advance of a major high pressure ridge. At a minimum, the trough will charge up a SE surge along the NSW coast with an increase in S/SE-SE swell later Tues and into Wed
A weakening trough of low pressure near New Caledonia is seeing easing E swells across the sub-tropics.
We’ve got a dominant (1035hPa) high pressure cell sitting just north of the Victorian border, bringing settled conditions and light winds to Central/Southern NSW and strong but easing SE winds in the sub-tropics where a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is currently active but dissipating and moving East.
By Mon morning we should have a complex trough of low pressure NE of K’gari (Fraser Is) with a well developed fetch of strong SE winds feeding into the low and extending well out into the Coral Sea.
The gist of it is a trough line in the Coral Sea, which may deepen into a low pressure system and drift towards the North Island (GFS scenario) or move towards the QLD coast as a coastal trough and intensify a NE infeed into the SEQLD, then NSW Coast possibly as early as Tues.
Mid to late afternoon, the leading edge of a new long period E’ly swell will make landfall, though we’re not expecting wave heights to peak until...