South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed Oct 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S/SE swells Thurs but generally wind affected north from Yamba (small clean waves at semi-exposed points)
• Fun S/SE swell Fri with generally light winds and a'noon sea breezes (biggest in Northern NSW)
• Solid S/SE groundswell peaking Sat but N'ly winds may spoil proceedings (chance for early NW window in parts)
• N'ly winds continuing north from Yamba on Sunday as the swell eases, though favourable winds likely on the Mid North Coast (chance for early NW window in northern parts)
• Strong S'ly swell due Northern NSW on Wed
• Another S'ly swell due Fri/Sat

Recap

A combination of lingering E’ly swell and small S’ly swells along with mainly S’ly winds (and poor banks) have created average surf options across most coasts for the last few days.

This week (Oct 3 - 4)

No major changes to the outlook for the rest of the week.

A high pressure system will begin to influence the NSW coast into Thursday, though lighter winds will probably only be felt up to about Coffs Harbor or perhaps Yamba. North from here into SE Qld, we’ll see moderate to fresh (though slowly easing) S/SE tending SE winds in conjunction with a firm ridge extending into the Coral Sea.

This means surf options in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld will remain limited at open beaches under the breezy conditions, and the only rideable waves will be at the semi-exposed points, which are suffering from unfavourable sand setups. 

South from Yamba, lighter winds will allow for the beachbreaks to offer something to ride, though the sand situation isn't much better across these regions either.

Light variable winds are then expected across all coasts on Friday ahead of afternoon NE breezes into the afternoon (strongest along the Mid North Coast). 

As for wave heights, the models are not properly resolving the evolving system in the Tasman Sea, which is not entirely surprising; this is a common occurrence for off-axis systems positioned closer to New Zealand than the Australian mainland.

Surf size should build out of the S/SE from 2-3ft to 3-5ft across south facing beaches south of Byron on Thursday, with smaller waves elsewhere. A similar size range should persist through Friday as the wavelength draws out.

North from Byron and we’ll see smaller surf building from 2-3ft to 3-4ft during Thursday, at south swell magnets and exposed northern ends (though they’ll be wind affected). Size should hold into Friday, however the semi-exposed points will remain smaller in size. 

Keep your expectations low and work around the tides.

This weekend (Oct 5 - 6)

The models have marginally downgraded the developing Tasman Low generating Saturday’s large SE swell, but a little more more crucially, have swung its primary alignment more meridional (north/south) which is slightly off-axis compared to earlier runs. This has resulted in a slight adjustment to the weekend's size estimate since Monday's notes were issued. 

That being said, I still really like the way this system is developing so the swell potential remains high this weekend. 

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about local winds, which will freshen from the northern quadrant both days. We may see pockets of NW winds early Saturday and early Sunday but even if this occurs, the regional synoptic flow is likely to instigate some unwelcome lumps and bumps through the lineup at exposed spots. 

The only region that looks to offer a decent window of favourable winds this weekend is the Mid North Coast, which should see Saturday’s northerly flow become light W’ly into Sunday as a weak trough develops over the region. However surf size will be on the way down at this point.

So, how big?

Swell direction will be out of the S/SE and beaches with good southerly exposure (south of Byron) should manage 5-6ft+ sets as the swell reaches a peak around lunchtime Saturday. Expect much smaller surf at remaining beaches. 

North of the border, and a handful of south swell magnets/exposed northern ends are likely to push into the 4-5ft range. However, most of the coast will be much smaller, up to 2-3ft surf along the points, not that they’ll be surfable with these winds, so you'll have to do some legwork.

Size will then slowly ease by a couple of feet through Sunday.

I’ll have another pass at the local winds in Friday’s notes but right now the outlook is not overly promising for many locations.

Next week (Oct 7 onwards)

Smaller waves and light variable winds are expected Monday, but we’ve got a strong new south swell due to build on Wednesday, sourced from a deep cut-off low entering the Tasman Sea from the Southern Ocean. 

This is likely to push wave heights back up into the 4-6ft range at south facing branches south of Byron (much smaller in SE Qld, though).

Another strong frontal system is expected to trail behind which should set up another sizeable south swell for the end of the week or the weekend, but I’ll have more on that in Friday’s update.