South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed Oct 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid S/SE groundswell peaking Sat PM but N'ly winds may spoil proceedings (chance for early NW window in parts)
• N'ly winds continuing north from Yamba on Sunday as the swell eases, though favourable W'ly winds likely on the Mid North Coast (chance for early NW window in northern parts)
• Easing swell Mon with lighter winds
• Strong S'ly swell due Northern NSW on Thurs
• Another S'ly swell due for Northern NSW next weekend

Recap

Building S’ly swells have favoured Northern NSW for the most size over the last few days, though a small underlying easterly swell has maintained peaky 2ft waves at remaining coasts. South swell magnets south from Byron have seen around 3ft of surf both days, with fresh S’ly winds creating problems on Thursday but light variable winds offering good conditions this morning before NE sea breezes came up this afternoon.

This weekend (Oct 5 - 6)

The weekend’s large S/SE swell is still expected to push through, but unfortunately, winds are still looking difficult for many areas.

A weak high pressure ridge across the Northern NSW coast and a frontal passage across the south-eastern corner of the country will freshen northerly winds about exposed coasts. This will create surface quality issues at many spots.

That being said, the worst conditions may end up being confined to the more easterly exposed coastlines and prominent headlands - there’s a modest chance that a handful of locations could see a N/NW flow at times developing on Saturday morning, which may start to open up some opportunities across open beaches. Sunday morning should also see a decent window with even a few spots trending NW at time before the northerly resumes.

Of course, any window that opens could easily shut just as quickly so don’t leave it too long, if you see anything remotely worthwhile.

And it goes without saying that the bank situation still leaves a lot to be desired right now, so even a good swell/wind combo could see many pointless miles of highway driving.

It's not all bad new in Northern NSW though - the two-day northerly flow will only occupy one day south from about Yamba. The Mid North Coast will receive more influence from the fronts to the south and therefore Sunday is likely to see the wind swing around to the west, creating clean conditions.

As for surf, we will see building S/SE groundswells all day Saturday, from 3-4ft early (south facing beaches south of Byron) up to 5-6ft by the afternoon, then easing from 3-5ft to 2-3ft throughout Sunday.

Beaches with less southerly exposure will be much smaller - though, conversely they’ll also be more wind affected. 

North from Byron, and we’ll see less size thanks to the dominant southerly component in the swell direction. South swell magnets and exposed northern ends in SE Qld should reach an afternoon peak on Saturday around 3-4ft (smaller in the morning), before easing slowly through Sunday. However most SE Qld beaches will be much smaller.

Next week (Oct 7 onwards)

Easing swells are expected Monday with better winds as a weak trough brings about light variable conditons. Northern NSW will see the most size, there won't be much surf around in SE Qld away from south swell magnets.

The next swell generating system will enter Northern NSW’s south swell window on Monday as a cut-off low SE of Tasmania (see below), which means we won’t see an increase from it until late Wednesday (Mid North Coast) or Thursday (remaining Northrern NSW coasts).

Actually, Tuesday afternoon will see an increase in local southerly windswell from a local front associated with the low, but the main swell will be a late Wednesday or (more likely) Thursday event - when winds will be better anyway.

Unfortunately, SE Qld won’t pick up much, if any size from these sources. 

Tuesday afternoon’s short range southerly swell will be accompanied by fresh S’ly breezes, with the Mid North Coast building to 3-4ft by late in the day, easing from a similar size (across the remainder of Northern NSW) on Wednesday as winds ease from the SE. Quality won’t be high at those beachies picking up the size so keep your expectations low. 

On the other hand the late Wednesday/Thursday swell looks fun for south facing beaches south of Byron, with 3-4ft of stronger groundswell, and light morning offshore winds tending NE through the day. The low does look pretty impressive in the synoptic chart above, but it tracks quickly to the east which will limit its size potential.

Both days will see much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

And SE Qld won’t see anything from these swells however a small trough is expected t park itself off the coast and should generate some low quality short range SE swell that may be just enough to get the semi-exposed up and running with a foot or two fo weak surf. 

Otherwise, we have some more southerly swell expected for Northern NSW next weekend, sourced from an impressive front pushing up under Tasmania and into the lower Tasman Sea during the week. This looks very promising, as long as the sand can sort itself out across the region.

Have a great weekend!