Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Longer period S swells build in Fri PM, extending into Sat
• Light morning winds over the weekend, trending S-SE through the day
• Easing swells Sun 
• SE winds freshen again Mon into Tues with a rebuild in short range SE swell
• Winds should be lighter from mid week but still dependent on local troughs
• Workable E/SE swells from mid next week with light winds
• Small/moderate S swell next weekend
• More SE winds on the radar as another large high moves into the Bight

Recap

Moderate S swells to 3-4ft yesterday with semi-clean conditions early before moderate S-SE winds kicked in again. Today is seeing smoother conditions with light land breezes on a rainy morning, before lumpier conditions again resumed as S’lies kicked in. 

Lingering rain squalls have aided semi-glassy surf in the mornings

This weekend (May4-5)

Monster high pressure has barely budged since Wed, maintaining a S-SE flow right up the Eastern Seaboard, with a coastal trough ensuring plenty of unstable, rainy weather. No great change to the weekend f/cast. The high becomes even more slow moving as it approaches Tasmania so we’re looking at S-SE flow over the weekend, with morning winds slighter and tending W/SW-SW as well as lighter periods around rain squalls.

Surf-wise S’ly groundswell filling in this a’noon will add to the short period mix and provide the best and biggest surf for the weekend through Sat morning with sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches and some bigger outliers possible if you can stomach some less than perfect surface conditions.

Easing surf into Sun with 3-4ft sets dropping back through the day to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks. Just a caveat for the winds on Sun. There is a small troughy area modelled to sit off the Hunter coast which may see offshore winds establish through the morning before tending SE during the day.

Next week (May 6 onwards)

Ridge rebuilds strongly on Mon so expect another blast of S/SE-SE winds, likely extending into Tues and tending more E/SE. Onshore winds will accompany an increase in local swell with short period SE swell building to 3-4ft with the occ. bigger set. Smaller into more protected bays.

Pressure gradients do look to ease mid week, potentially offering up some cleaner mornings although once again, we’re still at the mercy of a troughy pattern so confidence is very low on specifics. Under current modelling we’d expect winds to ease into Wed and Thurs with modest SE-E/SE swell hanging in the 2-3ft range. We may see some minor S swell in the mix during this period.

Into the end of next week and another strong high looks to approach from position well south of the Bight. We may see a spike in local S swell next weekend from a front in advance of the high, with good odds a new high pressure ridge will bring another round of SE wind and local swell next weekend.

At some point this Autumn, one of these troughy areas would be expected to form a surface low and offer up more surf potential than what we have been seeing but nothing is indicated at the moment so we’ll keep eyes on it over the weekend and report back Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!