While this is going on, the LWT will amplify south of Tasmania, focusing a strong polar front through our premium south swell window from Monday into Tuesday, generating large long period energy for the middle of next week. More in the Forecaster Notes.
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Around the middle of the day (or possibly earlier) the leading edge of a long range, long period southerly swell will push up into the region, generated by an intense polar low sliding well south of SA, Victoria and Tasmania on Thursday.
It’s quite a benign pattern right now with nothing of any great interest standing up in the charts. There are some windows of opportunity though.
A trough sliding up the coast this afternoon is a bit of an annoyance. It’s both disrupting the northerly fetch generating our local swell (which will lead to a drop in size through Thursday and Friday), and is also steering the Southern Ocean storm track away from our south swell window. It’s also not bringing any local southerly swell either.
Unfortunately, the synoptic change that brought this initial swell forward has had a negative impact on the short term outlook, as it’s steered some of the trailing systems away from our swell window.
There’s not a lot of action expected this weekend. And we’ve got a complex wind outlook for Saturday too.
Freshening NE winds will create a few problems throughout Thursday. And it looks like a tricky weekend ahead. Friday morning is your best friend!
I’m not too impressed by the coming surf this week.
We’ve got a weekend of two halves. And a bucketload of swell on tap for next week.
The dropping size will be a little slower than normal because a modest secondary fetch is develop around the (decaying) Tasman Low