A secondary fetch developing west from Cook Strait around this time will bolster a SE fetch in the southern Tasman Sea, offering moderate SE swells through the middle of the week ahead of another pulse of slightly bigger E/SE swell through Thursday afternoon and Friday.
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For my money, you’re best off flagging the start of the week and aiming for Wednesday through Friday.
Not much surf is expected for the rest of the week.
Sunday's small Tasman Low has already reached a peak in strength, and is now easing.
Saturday’s late southerly change will evolve into a small Tasman Low through Sunday, and as per Wednesday’s notes we’ve seen daily upgrades in the model runs.
Looks like a tricky couple of days ahead.
The source of our current swell weakened considerably over the last 24 hours so we’re looking at a steady decreasing trend through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.
The general swell trend should remain very large out of the south into Saturday morning, at a similar size seen this afternoon.
The synoptics look complex, but in reality the short term period has a relatively straightforward surf outlook. Big and windy from the south.
Synoptically, we’ll see a broad Tasman Low develop through Thursday that’ll end up displaying multiple low pressure centres. It looks like a complex, slow moving system that will occupy our swell window for quite some time.