Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th January)

Best Days: Extended run of small NE windswell for the entire period, biggest later next week. Fun though inconsistent S/SE groundswell Sun/Mon, then some interesting swell sources for the long term. 

Recap: Small S’ly windswells provided minor waves during Thursday morning and early afternoon, but the leading edge of a stronger S’ly groundswell arrived mid-late afternoon, bumping up south facing beaches to 3ft, holding through today. A slightly smaller E/SE swell was also evident in the mix today, originating from an easterly fetch on the southern flank of a slow moving Tasman trough. Winds have been mainly light so conditions have been clean, though afternoon NE sea breezes are now bumping up exposed spots. 

This weekend (Jan 26 - 27)

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We’ll see some patchy, irregular NE windswell all weekend, from a semi-stationary fetch positioned off the Mid North Coast.

For the most part it’ll be not quite ideal in position - a little further north than we prefer - but models suggest it'll periodically lunge (?) forward over the coming 48 hours, resulting in small bursts of energy that should manage 2-3ft surf at NE facing beaches both days. If there were to be a trend, it’s more likely we’ll see the upper end of this size range on Sunday morning (Saturday may be a smidge undercooked).

This see-sawing wind field will be related to the passage of a troughy pattern over the southern part of the state, which will also bring about periods of light winds to the coastal margin. Though, anywhere north from Sydney will still be at risk of a NE flow at some point (conversely, anywhere south from the Illawarra may see periods of S’ly winds at times).

Most of the forecast region should however see mainly light variable winds, and this will offer windows of fun waves both days. A slightly more robust S’ly flow Sunday afternoon is still on the cards though.

On Sunday, a small new long range S/SE groundswell is expected to push up the coast, generated by a small but intense polar low well to the south of New Zealand earlier this week. 

Set waves will be very inconsistent - I can’t stress this enough, as it’s a very flukey, distant swell window, so there'll be lengthy periods of tiny conditions - but it should provide reliable south swell magnets with occasional waves in the 3ft+ range, more likely later in the day than earlier. 

With some luck we’ll see the light winds persist all day and maintain reasonable conditions. I do think we’ll probably see S’ly winds push into the Sydney region late in the afternoon, so if you’re going to surf aim for an early paddle - but keep your options flexible for the afternoon in case the southerly is stalled. 

Next week (Jan 28 onwards)

Sunday’s S’ly swell will ease slowly through Monday but should provide very inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets early at south facing beaches, before it abates into the afternoon and into Tuesday. 

Our NE windswell source will have temporarily diminished by this time so expect smaller peaky options from this source around 1-2ft. 

Overnight Monday should see a refreshening of the local NE wind field, leading to progressively larger NE windswell from Tuesday through the rest of the week, as a stationary high pressure system in the Tasman slowly squeezes the pressure gradient between it an an inland trough of low pressure. 

This should building size from 2-3ft at some point on Tuesday to 3-4ft by Thursday and early Friday.  A gusty S’ly change is then due around Friday afternoon (give or take a half day).

Looking elsewhere and there’s a multitude of systems on the long range charts. A complex deepening trough-cum-sub tropical low NE of New Zealand looks unreal on the synoptics next week (see below), but I fear it’ll develop just inside the swell shadow for our swell window (though, favouring Northern NSW and SE Qld). I’ll keep an eye on this.

An intense Southern Ocean low will pass just south of Tasmania on Monday, but it looks poorly aligned within our swell window. We may see some small long period energy glance the coast Tues/Wed but I’m not that confident at this stage.

However, a deepening cut-off low south of Tasmania later next week (likely responsible for Friday’s S’ly wind change) looks like it may develop in a much more favourable environment for East Coast swell generation. At this stage it’s worth putting a pencil mark around next Sunday and Monday for a possible significant southerly swell event. 

Anyway, that’s more than enough to digest - have a great long weekend, I’ll see you Monday.