Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th January)

Best Days: Thurs: good winds and a punchy NE windswell. Sun: good mid-range E'ly swell with light morning winds. Wed/Thurs: Fun mid-range E'ly swell. 

Recap: We’ve seen peaky NE swells building from 2-3ft Tuesday to a solid 3ft today, and the afternoon freshening breeze hasn’t been overly strong (15kts gusting 20kts Tuesday, currently 12kts gusting 17kts at North Head). Certainly less than expected. The small long period S’ly swell tipped for today has also been detected at the Port Botany buoy (though, at the time this report was prepared the MHL Sydney buoy had not picked it up), with peak swell periods around 17 seconds. It’s a faint, inconsistent signal though as expected.

This week (Jan 29 - Feb 1)

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No changes at all to the short term forecast notes. 

We’ve got some nice waves on the way for Thursday, with our current NE swell expected to reach an early peak around 3-4ft at reliable NE facing beaches, before easing steadily throughout the day. Today’s fleeting south swell will vanish overnight, so expect much smaller surf at south facing beaches, and in the Northern Hunter. 

A strong southerly change will push up the Southern NSW coast during the day, it’s expected to arrive in the Wollongong region around dinner time (and Sydney an hour or two after that) but ahead of it winds should tend light and variable. There may be pockets of N’ly winds at times but on the balance I think we’re looking at pretty good surface conditions.

Friday’s looking to be a little windy, with fresh S’ly tending SE winds as the change stalls off the Mid North Coast, and building short range S’ly tending SE swells across most beaches. South facing beaches should see 3-4ft+ sets but they’ll be wind affected, with smaller surf elsewhere. And with the NE swell easing through Thursday, there won’t be much juice left in the tank for Friday morning at southern ends (which will offer the cleanest conditions).

So, make the most of Thursday!

This weekend (Feb 2 - 3)

There’s no change to the weekend outlook either. 

With Friday’s southerly change stalling across the Mid North Coast, and with a building ridge of high pressure to the south, we’ll see an easterly flow develop through the central Tasman Sea. This will be aimed very nicely in our swell window and should kick up 3-4ft+ of mid range swell for most beaches. 

It still looks like Saturday’s conditions will be wind affected under moderate to perhaps fresh E’ly breezes, but they’ll ease throughout the day so the afternoon has potential for an improvement. 

Sunday is the day though. Wave heights will slowly ease (though still should retain plenty of Saturday’s size early morning), and winds will become light and variable ahead of NE sea breezes after lunch. I reckon we’ll see some really nice options. 

Also worth mentioning for the weekend is the possibility for a small long period S/SE swell to glance the coast, generated by an intense Southern Ocean low forming SE of Tasmania into Friday (see below).

It will unfortunately develop on the periphery of our swell window (and will also track away from us at the same time), delivering very large surf for New Zealand but we'll see just a fraction of the energy reaching our shores (likely much smaller than the pre-existing E’ly swell).

Next week (Feb 4 onwards)

All swell sources will ease into the start of the week, and freshening N’ly winds Monday will precede a shallow S’ly change due Tuesday morning. 

The forecast from Wednesday onwards revolves around a multitude of peripheral swell sources: building trades through the northern Tasman (E/NE swell), a second ridge through the Central Tasman (E’ly swell), and driving frontal systems below the ridge (S’ly swell), plus the odd spurt of local windswell.

Only the mid-range E’ly swell from the Central Tasman ridge shows the most size indications at this point in time, through Wednesday and Thursday with sets rebuilding to 3-4ft (though possibly wind affected, like we’re expecting this Saturday). 

Elsewhere, and I’m still keeping a close eye on the tropics, where monsoonal activity will push through the Coral Sea into the South Pacific, and likely result in a couple of tropical lows (and maybe tropical cyclones). There’s nothing specific showing at the moment but it’ll be worth closely monitoring over the coming days.