Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th February)

Best Days: Small peaky surf Thurs thru' Sun, with bigger E/NE groundswell next week, biggest Tues and possibly again around Thurs. Plenty of other swell sources in the mix next week too.

Recap: Tuesday saw a blend of average swells offer 2ft sets to open beaches, under a mainly light variable breeze. Winds have been similarly light today, and initially slow 1-2ft sets this morning have built to 2-3ft through the day with a small SE swell, originating from a modest ridge extending perpendicular to the South Coast. Slightly bigger waves have been reported south from the Illawarra.

Small mid-afternoon SE lines at Shark Island 

This week (Feb 7 - 8)

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In Monday’s notes I detailed eight possible minor swells that could glance the coast this week. 

Now that we’re mid-way through the week, a couple of them have come to fruition, and we’re now left with just a few options to finish the working week. It’s unlikely we’ll see a great deal of size for a few days yet. 

The most notable swell is today’s SE energy from the ridge through the Southern Tasman Sea. We’ve been lucky for this new energy to coincide with generally light winds, but unfortunately the source fetch is easing and also rotating outside of our swell window. So, wave heights will trend down through Thursday and become much less consistent. If you’re very lucky, some south swell magnets may pick up stray 2ft+ sets early morning but keep your expections low, and expect smaller surf from this source into the afternoon. 

Thursday morning will see initially light winds, but they’ll tend NE into the afternoon and freshen, muscling up a little more into Friday, though not reaching a point where it’ll generate any meaningful windswell - perhaps 1-2ft sets if we’re lucky. 

The only other swell sources for the rest of the week is the brief flush of E’ly swell from the fetch exiting western Cook Strait (no more than 1-2ft at open beaches on Friday) and, more notably, a rebuilding E/NE swell as the trades broaden and strength across the Northern Tasman Sea over the next day or so. 

Occasional 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets (if we’re lucky) are likely from this region - moreso very late Thursday and Friday than Thursday morning - and with the moderate NE breeze conditions won’t be anything amazing. But there’ll be waves about if you’re keen. 

This weekend (Feb 9 - 10)

The slight pulse in trade swell expected Thursday and Friday should hold into the weekend, along with some minor NE windswell about exposed beaches. 

A local troughy synoptic pattern will deliver mixed results, though there’ll be pockets of good conditions. Saturday morning looks to be clean with light winds, but a shallow S’ly change will push up the South Coast into the afternoon, reaching Sydney after dinner time before stalling south of the Mid North Coast overnight. 

This presents a risk for lingering SE winds Sunday morning, though mainly north from Sydney through into the Hunter with light winds elsewhere (to the south of Sydney). And even if these onshores create an issue early Sunday, they will ease throughout the day to become light and variable after lunch.

As for size, let’s peg the trade swell around 2-3ft both days, with reasonable breaks between the sets (it won’t be consistent) and fun options across the beaches.

A broad but poorly aligned series of fronts below Tasmania will also kick up some minor S’ly swell this weekend, but I can’t see there being a great deal of size - bypassing most beaches but occasionally providing inconsistent 2ft+ sets to south swell magnets (more likely Sunday than Saturday). 

The bigger, longer period E/NE swell mentioned in Monday’s notes has been pushed back a day or so, therefore I’m not expecting a late kick in size on Sunday afternoon any more.

Next week (Feb 11 onwards)

The South Pacific is really going to become quite active over the coming days, and New Zealand is in for one hell of a good run of large N, NE and E’ly swell over the coming week and a half. 

The source of this swell will be the merging of a series of tropical lows (and possible cyclones) between Samoa and New Zealand’s North Island, though they won’t be ideally consolidated at all (see chart below). As such, despite looking amazing on the synoptic chart, potential wave heights are likely to be considerably smaller compared to what we'd expect from a broad, consolidated, slow moving system of about the same size.

Worse, these systems will eventually consolidate nicely - but only once they’ve pushed south of the New Zealand swell shadow. 

Prior to then, we’ll see good E/NE groundswell generated by two or three primary fetches, which’ll push through to the NSW coast at various stages between Monday and Friday. Current expectations are that Tuesday and possibly Thursday will see the most size: background energy should maintain 3-4ft surf throughout the entire week, but I still think we’ll see one or possibly two rounds of long period energy up into the 4-6ft range, albeit rather inconsistent.

Long range charts suggest we’ll see an ongoing though intermittent supply of long range E/NE swell for some time beyond the end of the week too.

Also in the mix early next week will be some small S’ly swell from the weekend’s strong though poorly aligned frontal passage below Tasmania. Occasional 2ft, nearly 2-3ft sets are possible Monday and Tuesday.

Lastly, a deep cut-off low is expected to cross the Tasmanian divide around Wednesday and could generate a large S’ly swell for the second half of the week, in addition to creating squally local conditions.

Exciting, innit?

More on this in Friday’s notes.