Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd October)

Best Days: No great days in general, though there'll be small peaky beaches early Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. 

Recap: E/NE swell has dominated the last few days, building through Saturday to peaking the afternoon around 3-4ft+ before easing slowly through Sunday and into this morning, though wave heights were still around 2-3ft for the early session. Saturday saw freshening N/NE winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change early Sunday morning, which then eased into the afternoon. Today has delivered cleaner conditions with light variable winds ahead of an afternoon sea breeze.   

This week (Oct 23 - 26)

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So much potential.. but so little (forecast) action at the present time.

The synoptics are quite busy at the moment with a surface trough stretching longitudinally across the western Tasman Sea, and a series of fronts pushing through the Great Australian Bight. A broad infeed of E/NE winds feeding into the Tasman trough will supply small trade swells all week though no major size is expected, just either side of 2ft on the more favourable parts of the tide, and very inconsistent. 

A vigorous low and front will clip the southern Tasmanian coast later Tuesday. Ahead of it, freshening N/NE winds will take the sheen off local surface conditions on Tuesday (though early morning should be light and variable), but a gusty southerly change will push up the Southern NSW coast early Wednesday, creating choppy conditions at south facing beaches and building short range southerly swells into the 3ft range. 

The parent low (south of Tasmania) to the front is expected to be quite strong, though cut-off and zonal, resulting in a short fetch length aimed poorly within our swell window. Some small southerly groundswell from this low will glance the Southern NSW coast on Thursday and Friday but in general, most beaches will miss out - perhaps 1.5-2ft at Sydney’s reliable south swell magnets, with exposed Hunter beaches pulling in the odd 2-3ft set. The E/NE swell will likely be much more dominant, relatively speaking of course.

As for local winds: Thursday and Friday will see a lingering troughy pattern across the coast, resulting in variable conditions - light periods, but tending onshore at times into the afternoons. Wave heights will remain small at most beaches from the aforementioned distant, flukey sources. A brief ridge may form in the Central Tasman Sea overnight Wednesday (and may provide a minor SE swell for late Thurs/Fri) but no great size is expected at this stage.

This weekend (Oct 27 - 28)

Looks like a weekend dominated by freshening N/NE winds as a surface trough approaches slowly from the west. The breeze probably won’t be very strong early Saturday but will increase into the afternoon, and model guidance expects plenty of strength into Sunday.

Obviously, we’ll see a low quality windswell build throughout the weekend - biggest on Sunday - but there’s no sign of any other significant swell systems to offer good waves. As such, your surfable options are looking like being wither small clean swell magnets early Saturday, or bumpy beachies Sunday as the NE windswell reaches a peak, with sets in the 2-3ft+ range at reliable NE swell magnets.

Next week (Oct 30 onwards)

The long term model runs haven’t been particularly reliable over the last week or two, but they’re currently suggesting the weekend’s approaching surface trough will evolve into a significant Tasman Low early next week, resulting in. Let’s give it a few days before getting remotely excited about our swell prospects.