This will generate a poorly aligned though somewhat punchy round of south swell for Southern NSW, arriving in two stages - the first sometime later Saturday morning across Sydney’s south facing beaches, with a second swell pushing through on Sunday.
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Even though there are still strong sets showing across Sydney beaches this afternoon, I’m going to pare down my expectations for Tuesda
There’s been an upgrade in strength and a forward time-shift with regards to the developing low pressure system in the north-eastern Tasman Sea.
Our weekend’s waves will be a combination of easing S’ly swell from Friday, and a building spread of mid-range SE swell from a strengthening ridge through the Tasman.
The synoptic charts shows a broad, unstable trough lying off the East Coast.
Since last Monday I’ve been discussing the possibility of an ‘unstable troughy pattern across the eastern Tasman Sea next week’, which could lead to a ‘sizeable’, ‘short range E’ly through NE swell’.
Our current S’ly swell will continue to ease into Thursday, but a new long period S’ly swell will push up through the morning, generated by a polar low south of Tasmania earlier this week.
Model guidance has increased projected wave heights for Tuesday and Wednesday, more inline with what my Friday notes suggested.
Next week is very tricky.
Friday looks much better on the surface though with winds swinging to the NW as a weak trough moves over the area. This should clean up the beachies nicely and provide some excellent waves to finish the working week.