Flukey swells and tricky winds ahead
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 24th October)
Best Days: Thurs: small peaky waves early. Maybe early Friday too, though the S'ly change will be in early-mid morning. Sun/Mon: building S'ly swell, though tricky winds.
Recap: Tuesday saw small surf and generally light winds ahead of freshening nor’easters. A gusty S’ly change pushed through overnight, and has whipped up a short range S’ly windswell to 3ft+ this afternoon, though there are still inconsistent 2ft sets out of the E/NE (as per the surfcam image below, from Manly). Surf quality is pretty average across most coasts though.
Mid afternoon at Manly
This week (Oct 25 - 26)
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
Today’s short range southerly swell was all locally generated and will thus ease rapidly into Thursday as the local winds also become light and variable.
Early morning should see clean peaky 2ft+ leftovers at south facing beaches with reasonably clean conditions ahead of the afternoon nor’easter. The persistent E/NE swell should also continue in and around the 2ft mark, though very slow and inconsistent, and the south swell will ease into the afternoon. Don’t get your hopes up.
A shallow southerly change will push up the coast on Friday, with light winds in the early morning ahead of its arrival.
With the southerly swell all but gone by this time, we’ll be relying on the persistent E/NE swell to supply us with occasional 2ft sets - but as per Thursday there will be very long waits for ‘em. Aim for the very early session - the models have a blend of arrival times from dawn through mid-late morning (across Sydney that is; earlier in the Illawarra but later in the Hunter) so keep an eye on the AWS readings to the south to monitor its arrival and plan your session.
This weekend (Oct 27 - 28)
There's been a noticeable swing in the model guidance for the weekend - in our favour too, which is nice.
The strength of Friday’s southerly change is a little divergent across the models, there is some suggestion we may see a small mid range south swell off it (2ft+) but I think it’s more likely to come in under this, with light variable winds and NE sea breezes. There’ll still be some distant residual E/NE swell in the water too, though easing slowly.
A front is now expected to push through the lower Tasman Sea on Saturday and should provide a decent kick in south swell for Sunday. This thinking extrapolates the recent model trend and assumes a further upgrade over the next day or two, however it may also result in a stronger associated southerly wind change than the models are currently suggesting.
Regardless, for now I’ll peg size increasing to a bumpy 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches after lunch (our surf model currently has just 2ft by the evening). Let’s see how Friday’s updates pan out.
Next week (Oct 30 onwards)
Early next week will rely on how Sunday’s south swell eventuates, and how the responsible low behaves. It’s likely that we’ll see easing wave heights from whatever peaks in size on Sunday afternoon, but this should still result in plenty of workable south swell to start the week.
Otherwise, the second half of next week looks like being dominated by a coastal trough and a ridge through the northern Tasman Sea, bringing about an increase in short range NE swell and mid-range E/NE trade swell.
See you Friday!
Comments
Worst year of waves ever
Yep agree
Second that. Worst year I remember easily.
Are you guys both on the east coast???. Seems to be the consensus from everyone from Ulladulla to the far Nth.
I wonder if Thermalben can comment.
How long is ‘ever’?
Seems like it's eternity Ben!
Don't worry, we don't hold you accountable
Very Small and clean during winter, on shore with waves during spring..... can’t remember autum or late summer. I remember some decent clean, yet cold water north east swell days last December that we’re fun on the central coast....the good waves will be back, just got to be patient
What’s the chances of swellnet doing a re cap of the each season at the start of the next season? High lighting particular swells that lit up a region... or some weird and wonderful out season swell, Etc, etc... good to look back on and compare
Those Southerly changes sure like turning up on the weekends.
Small clean at south swell magnets over winter ..Think deepwater reef/bombies ... A couple decent North east swells either side of winter ...Definitely worst year for banks at beaches or in top 5 ...Central Coast NSW
Ocean Strike action in response to wave pools.
Tend to agree with the 'worst ever' vibe. I've surfed less this year than most and much less in second half of the years. Combination of work, stress, average health and poor surf when I was available have made it all pretty dire.
As a counterpoint, Craig still surfs more great waves every single week than anyone else I know (other than paid freesurfers, if there's any left?), working a full time job based in Sydney. Sure, he travels a little bit but usually under a half day north and south of the CBD.
Craig - what's your thoughts?
The last two years have probably been the worst I've experienced since moving here at the start of 2009.
But in saying that, being willing to drive out of town most weekend's yes I've scored at least the double the size in swell and with pumping conditions with just mates every time.
I have the big advantage of knowing where to go under most swell and wind situations but it's not that hard to work out if your savvy.
As I've noticed ever since moving here, I feel because most people have access to a beach at their door step they don't put in the miles to travel further afield and are generally lazy. Coming from South Oz has meant I've always been primed to travel for surf and it's all part of the adventure.
Also re surfing basically every day, it's all about the quiver and having something to surf anything and also keeping your expectations in check. Obv if it's fat small and light onshore, don't expect to be having the best surf of your life.
But yeah, worst couple of autumns/winters for a long while, especially the one just gone.
"it's all about the quiver"
Totally agree. You can surf almost everyday if you've got a suitable board and healthy amounts of froth.
May/June was good for south swells. The rest has been below par.
February was a very good month, the autumn was a total dud.
Winter was characterised by a few over-hyped swells that spectacularly failed to deliver (Cloudbreak swell late May I'm looking at you- and others).
Late winter had a few good days but ridiculously crowded due to the poor surf for most of winter.
Spring has been the surprise packet.....almost constant swell from the Eastern quadrant supplying OK to great waves every day.
I probably share the travel vibe with Craig and moved full time to the east in 2011 admittedly in the Monaro region.
I go surfing when the waves pump on a weekend and it's been a pretty poor year imo also. Although having a 2yo means I have to be even more selective now as well.
Had a fruitful MNC mission in March, Craig knows the weekend, and sept through to weekend fortnight ago seemed a good period, but yes winter was very very quiet for a weekend warrior on the south coast.
I'm impressed that your surf wagon is a Monaro.
Ha ha, polite way of saying I live very very close to the ACT, still rocking NSW plates though and there's plenty of frothing surfers here :-)
I've seen worse but probably not in recent decades.
Thinking back we got a couple of good trade swells earlier in the year which pushed into southern nsw. I got skunked trying to score that mystical deep south rivermouth, not through lack of swell but wrong tide read and probably an absence of sand.
I wish you all the best Batfink.
Light winds and small peaky waves across the Newy stretch (surfcam has been intermittent this week.. not sure what's happening).
