Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 30th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun pulse of E/SE swell Tues, easing into Wed
• SW-S winds expected Tues/Wed as trough/low hovers off Central/Mid North Coast- winds may be flukey depending on low movement
• Possible small local E swell in the mix Wed
• Small kick in E swell Thurs, easing into Fri with light AM winds Thurs, tending N’ly
• Stalled low brings a W’ly flow Fri, extending into the weekend
• Small blend of E and NE swells over the weekend with clean conditions
• Small S swell Mon
• Uncertain outlook next week- potentially unstable, bad weather with onshores-stay tuned for updates

Recap

Lots of fun to be had over the weekend as long period SSE-SE swell kicked in Sat with mostly light winds. Sets built through the day with  a peak in energy observed in the a’noon at most spots as sets to 3-4ft made landfall. Sunday had a light onshore NE flow, which glassed off around storms and an easing signal of SSE-SE groundswell. Sets to 3ft became more inconsistent through the day with a small NE wind-swell padding things out. Only small waves on offer this morning with surf topping out around 2ft at swell magnets under a light NW flow, expected to tend N’ly with another late S’ly change on the cards as a trough pushes up the coast. Tricky week ahead with a few swell sources and lots of wind changes. Read on for details. 

Plenty of enery across open beaches Sat a'noon

This week (Jan30- Feb3)

We’ve got a troughy, unstable synoptic pattern on our hands with monsoonal clouds and moisture extending from the Top End dawn to a trough off the NSW South Coast. Weak pressure gradients look to be with us for a few days as the trough lingers about the NSW Central/Mid North Coast, possibly forming a small low. Small pulses of E swell generated by fetches near the North Island supply some fun sized surf if you can work around the wind shifts expected this week.

In the short run and a compact fetch of near gales out of Cook Strait through Sun brings a fun sized pulse of E/SE swell through Tues, with size expected in the 2-3ft range. You’ll need shelter from the S’ly winds expected as the trough winds up off the Central Coast, with proximate winds generating bit of short-range S’ly wind-swell to 2-3ft through the a’noon. Still a bit of uncertainty over winds depending on where the trough axis sits, with a more SSW-SW tilt to winds possible.

SW-SSW winds are expected Wed morning before likely tending light S/SE-E in the a’noon but again there’s a fair amount of uncertainty depending on where the small low and attached trough end up sitting. Expect E/SE swell to have eased to 2ft with some small S swell to 2ft in the mix. We may see a small amount of local E swell generated as winds feed into the low. Wave models aren’t resolving this well but we’ll keep tabs on the possibility of some peaky 2-3ft surf building through the a’noon from this source.

The trough/low moves away Thurs with light winds expected through the morning before a rapidly building high pressure ridge and inland trough see N’ly winds establish and freshen. We should see another small kick in E swell through the day from a fetch which tracked down from the South Pacific past the North Island into the Tasman Sea on Mon/Tues (see below). That should see a slight kick into the 2-3ft range through the day.

Winds shift again Fri, as a large mid-latitude low approaches from the W and becomes slow moving close to Tasmania. This will drive a winter-style W’ly flow across temperate NSW. With groomed conditions expected we should see small, fun beachbreaks with a combination of small swells. Easing E swells and some NE swell from winds feeding into the lingering trough system, with size around 2ft+. 

It’s a very fluid, unstable synoptic pattern so keep tabs on revisions through the week, especially for wind changes.

This weekend (Feb 4-5)

No major swells expected this weekend but there should be lengthy periods of offshore winds as the stalled low near Tasmania maintains an offshore flow. Likely more WSW-SW on Sat and W/NW-NW on Sun although revisions are likely.

We’ll be relying on the small blend of E and NE swells Sat to maintain surf in the 2ft range.

Size looks to drop a notch into Sun with babyfood in the 1-2ft range from similar sources. The stalled low near Tasmania may move E far enough on Sun to see a small, late hit of S swell but we’ll need more model clarity on that. At the moment, Mon looks a better bet for that.

Next week (Feb6 onwards)

Small S swell from the remnants of the low moving into the Tasman is expected Mon. The fetch weakens as it moves into the Tasman so no real size is expected. 2-3ft at S facing beaches, much smaller elsewhere. 

Another weak, troughy environment brings light onshore winds through Mon and Tues, likely tending N’ly by Tues. 

A stronger high moving through the Bight next week looks to set up a firmer ridge from mid next week. 

Models are divergent with the European model suggesting a potential trough of low pressure off the Fraser Coast in QLD and an inland trough through NSW seeing increased E’ly to E/NE’ly winds concentrated in those areas. That would see a strong increase in local swells and bad weather/onshore winds.

GFS suggests a more modest high pressure ridge and SE flow concentrated in the sub-tropics.

Low pressure in the South Pacific early next week looks to track SE after it forms near Fiji, suggesting only small amounts of E swell, if anything , filtering down to temperate NSW. Sub-tropical areas may fare better towards the end of next week but it’s too early to suggest any concrete sizes. 

Check back Wed and we’ll have more clarity as to how this unstable synoptic situation is resolving.