Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 18th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small traces of S swell Tues/Wed at S swell magnets
• Rideable NE windswell Wed PM, leftovers Thurs AM with an early S’ly change
• Rapid building trend in short range S swell Thurs PM with fresh S’ly winds
• Some inconsistent mid period E swell in the mix Thurs/Fri
• S-SSE swell peaks Fri AM as trough deepens off Hunter coast with mod/fresh S-SE winds
• S-SSE swell slowly eases this weekend with light onshore winds
• Small S swell signal likely Mon
• More small E-E/NE swell early/mid next week
• Small S-SE swell likely later next week, stay tuned for updates
• Tropics still being monitored but unlikely to see swell generated for Central/Southern NSW (short/medium term) at this stage

Recap

A small S swell signal yesterday provided some mostly 2ft waves at S facing beaches, with bigger 2-3ft surf on the Hunter. Conditions were OK early before deteriorating under mod/fresh E/NE winds. Today has seen small leftovers from the S supplying a few inconsistent 2ft sets at S facing beaches with a light N’ly flow early tending fresh N/NE through the morning. NE windswell is expected to build to rideable levels during the a’noon. 

Still some S swell lines on the Hunter today- mostly tiny elsewhere

This week (Jan 18-20)

Weak high pressure sits in the Tasman now, directing freshening NE winds across the Central/Southern NSW Coast as a trough and front approach from the W and SW. The trough will bring a robust S’ly change to the NSW Coast through Thurs, extending up into the sub-tropics during Fri. S’ly winds and swell quickly build in the wake of the trough. The Monsoon trough remains active but low-pressure systems budding off the trough line slide away to the SE in the absence of a strong supporting high, reducing surf potential.

In the short run and models show the change coming in early. Before dawn on the Illawarra, very early morning into the Sydney Basin, with a slightly larger window of offshore winds on the Hunter. If you can get in before the change you’ll find some clean 2ft NE windswell sidewinders. Once the change pushes through we’ll quickly see S’ly winds in excess of 20knots develop, whipping up a short range S swell into the 3-4ft range across most of the region’s S facing beaches, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter/Central Coast. Protected locations will see much smaller surf (from this source) due to low wave periods so keep expectations low. A small signal of E swell will supply some inconsistent 2ft sets into these spots.

Short range S swell, tending to SSE swell peaks though Fri morning in the 4ft range, bigger 3-5ft on the Hunter with unfriendly S-SE winds in the mod/fresh range through the day confining surfable options to protected spots. Longer range E swell from an E’ly dip out near the North Island will supply some inconsistent 2-3ft sets through the day but they will be few and far between.

This weekend (Jan21-22)

The remnants of Thursday’s trough linger off the North Coast and with a reinforcing high sliding into the Tasman that will maintain a weak onshore SE-E flow over the weekend. There will be a small mix of swells Sat, enough to generate around 3ft of size at most locations. Expect some easing SSE-SE swell, inconsistent mid period E swell and a smattering of short period ESE-E swell from winds through the Northern Tasman. Of course all of this will be affected by light/mod onshore winds so don’t expect much in the way of quality. 

Swell sources dry up a notch into Sunday so we’re looking at small surf under 2ft across the region without much quality to redeem it. Onshore SE-ESE winds look to build a notch as trough remnants slide back in towards the Hunter coast. Considering the increased onshore winds it’ll be strictly grovel territory Sunday. Onshore winds are likely to whip up a small increase in short period E swell through the a’noon for the very keen. 

Next week (Jan23 onwards)

A weak, onshore pattern to start next week with a trough hovering over areas north of Sydney and a reinforcing high pressure cell moving SE of Tasmania. That should see a continuation of onshore winds tending more SE compared to the weekend. Winds feeding into the trough and extending out into the Northern Tasman and up into the Coral Sea to a monsoonal low will see a small building trend in short period E-ESE swell for the region through Mon. Not much to froth over, just up into the 2-3ft range through the day and low quality. A passing front adds a small S swell signal to the mix with some 2ft sets possible.

Don't get excited about a tropical low which buds off the Monsoon Trough and hovers near New Caledonia over the weekend and early next week. The fetch is aimed well away from temperate NSW and the system dissipates as it begins to track Southward. We'll watch it, but at this stage it does't look like producing anything of interest for the f/cast region.

The small S swell signal looks to ease Tues with a day of light winds expected under a troughy flow.

By Wed we should see increasing N to NE winds and a small NE windswell in the 1-2ft range. Through the day an approaching trough sees winds tend W/NW with a variable flow in the a’noon (expect revisions on this).

Later next week and as  the trough moves offshore we should see a S’ly fetch develop off the South Coast and into the Tasman. Models have really downgraded this fetch and EC isn’t interested at all. That suggested a small S swell increase later next week, easing into the weekend 28/29 Jan, with more small bits and pieces on the long range but nothing major.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s all shaping up.