Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 13th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Slight bump in size Fri from the E/SE, easing into Sat with NE winds
• Small, weak Summer surf Sun, extending through Mon
• Slight kick in short range S swell possible Mon PM, extending into Tues
• Rideable NE windswell Wed, holds Thurs AM with a S’ly change
• More significant S-SSE swell now expected to build Thurs as trough deepens off Hunter coast
• S-SSE swell slowly eases later next week onto the weekend
• Tropics still being monitored but unlikely to see swell generated for Central/Southern NSW (short/medium term) at this stage

Recap

Small fun waves yesterday in the 2-3ft range early, easing through the day with light morning breezes tending onshore E/NE-NE in the a’noon. Today has seen a boost in energy from the E/SE with size to 3ft at swell magnets and light land breezes early tending to NE sea breezes in the a’noon.

Enough energy for a Summer grovel

This weekend (Jan14-15)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’ve got a weak, blocking pattern with high pressure (1025 hPa) right smack bang in the middle of the Tasman directing an onshore flow along the Eastern Seaboard. NE across Temperate NSW and SE-E in the sub-tropics. Warm SST (sea surface temperatures) are helping morning land breeze development so conditions should be relatively clean through the early sessions.

Get in early Sat for a few 2 footers at exposed breaks with some bigger sets at exposed swell magnets. By the a’noon we’ll be in sub 2ft territory with a mod/fresh NE seabreeze blowing.

Sunday will be very small in the 1-1.5ft range with a marginal increase in NE windswell through the a’noon, not exceeding 2ft across the region.

Next week (Jan16 onwards)

A weak trough may reach the Sydney basin Mon bringing a S’ly change but no surf is expected with NE windswell slop in the 1ft range or so. Winds are likely to swing back around E’ly through the day as the trough stalls out and a new high moves in.

NE winds kick back in Tues as high pressure moves into the Tasman-quickly sliding SE towards the South Island. We may see some small S swell Tues generated by a front and compact low racing across the Tasman Sun-Mon but keep expectations low. We’re only looking at some 2ft sets at S facing beaches through the a’noon. 

NE winds rapidly increase Wed as a trough approaches from the interior, with a proximate fetch to the Central NSW Coast expected to whip up 2-3ft of NE windswell through the a’noon. Depending on the position of the trough there may be a window of lighter winds through the a’noon, more likely in the south of the f/cast region.

The trough exits the coast later Wed into Thurs and intensifies rapidly through Thurs with S-SSE winds off the coast strengthening as the trough forms a small surface low off the Hunter coast (see below). That will see stiff S-SSE winds through Thurs and a rapidly building S-SSE swell. 

Expect size to rapidly build into the 4-6ft range through Thurs a’noon, much smaller into more sheltered locations.

The low looks set to move away quite quickly through Fri next week, under current modelling, which would suggest an easing trend through Fri and into next weekend. We’ll see how that pans out when we come back Mon.

Longer term and models are still struggling to resolve the monsoon trough and here we are again with tropical lows/cyclones pushed out to the end of model runs. We’ll monitor the charts over the weekend and keep tabs on any low pressure development in the South Pacific or Coral Sea next week but at this stage we haven’t got anything definite on the cards. Small amounts of E swell from a tradewind fetch in the South Pacific may filter down to temperate NSW later next week but will likely be drowned out by dominant S swells.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!