We’ve shifted from a scenario on Wednesday where TC Donna was expected to remain completely outside of our swell window (Wednesday night's model run) due to the swell shadow afforded by New Caledonia, to a situation where it's now a possible swell generator for many parts of the East Coast (Friday morning's run).
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Light variable winds are expected on Friday so this is certainly the pick of the short term forecast period.
Late Wednesday and into Thursday, we’ll see slightly longer period S’ly swell push along the Southern NSW coast.
Anyway, because of this rapid easing trend, I have slightly pegged back my expectations for Saturday’s surf.
A series of fronts will dominate the entire forecast period, and thus we’re looking at an extended period of south swell for Southern NSW.
Looks like the low generating our inbound E/NE swell for the coming days sped up a little over the weekend.
There's plenty of swell on the cards for the second half of next week.
A deepening surface trough south of Fiji on Friday is expected to form a nice easterly dip over the weekend. At the moment it’s expected to slowly consolidate into a decent swell producing system by Sunday or Monday, however by this time it’ll start to push close to the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island.
Our current long range E’ly swell is expected to continue motoring along into Tuesday, though a gradual easing will probably occur into the afternoon.
The three-way merger in the southern Tasman Sea isn’t doing anything interesting from a synoptic perspective so the resulting southerly groundswell for the weekend won’t be anything amazing.