Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th October)

Best Days: Sat: large S/SE swell, though a little wind affected in the morning, improving into the afternoon. Sun: clean early with small leftovers from the S/SE. Mon: fun SE swell with morning offshores. Thurs: peaky NE swell with morning offshores. 

Recap: It was a little frustrating to see only small south swell across most Sydney beaches through Tues/Wed - to which I correspondingly reduced south swell potential for Thursday and Friday - to then (after the forecast was published) receive confirmation via the Forecaster Notes comments that Tuesday’s south swell did in fact push above 3ft (as expected) at a few select south swell magnets down south (thanks Stu2d2!). Anyway, enough grizzling from my end. The last few days have seen a small mix of NE and S’ly swells, no more than about 2ft at open beaches but conditions have been clean through the mornings with light offshore winds. Winds are now moderate S/SE about the coast as a Tasman Low develops east of Tasmania. 

This weekend (Oct 7 - Oct 8)

Whoa! There’s been some significant revisions in the model guidance since Wednesday, which has dramatically altered the outlook for Sunday. Saturday still looks to be on track as per previous expectations though.

S’ly gales developed east of Tasmania this morning (confirmed nicely by satellite data), and this system will push up through our short range swell window overnight. Surf size will peak early Saturday morning and trend down throughout the afternoon; we should see early 5-6ft sets at south facing beaches, with smaller 3ft+ surf elsewhere and very small surf inside protected southern corners. Bigger bombs are possible through the Hunter. 

Fortunately, the model guidance - whilst weakening Sunday’s surf potential - has also eased up the strength of Saturday’s winds, which is an improvement for local conditions. They’re likely to be moderate to maybe fresh S’ly for a short period of time (may be SW for a brief period around dawn at a few select locations) but will rapidly abate into the afternoon, to become light and variable by the end of the day. 

As such, wave heights will decrease but conditions will improve all day. It won’t be perfect but there’ll be some fun lumpy waves around.

The S/SE gales that were expected to develop across the southern flank of the Tasman Low tonight have been delayed, and also pushed further east towards New Zealand. And, reduced in strength too. These three factors have delayed and downgraded the expected SE groundswell for Sunday; we’re now looking at a Monday arrival. 

This means Sunday will largely consist of easing leftovers from Saturday. Early light N/NW winds will keep conditions clean ahead of freshening N’ly tending NE winds throughout the day. We may see a small pulse mid-late afternoon from the SE but in general we’re looking at early 3ft sets at south facing beaches (much smaller elsewhere, but a little bigger in the Hunter), easing throughout the day ahead of the possible mid-afternoon pulse (probably back up into the 3ft range for the late session).

Aim for an early surf for the best waves. 

Next week (Oct 9 onwards)

Monday should see the final pulse of SE swell from this Tasman Low. It’s expected to arrive in the morning and should produce 3-4ft waves at most beaches with a reasonable degree of southerly exposure, though we won’t see quite the same size differential between exposed and protected coasts as per Saturday’s south swell. Our surf model is undercalling this swell (building to 2-3ft), but apart a reasonable degree of inconsistentcy, I reckon we'll see some fun waves about Southern NSW.

There may also be some small NE windswell in the mix, but on the whole conditions will be clean with moderate NW winds in the morning, ahead of possible afternoon sea breezes. 

Monday’s swell will ease rapidly through Tuesday, and a shallow S’ly change in the early hours of the morning is unlikely to generate any new swell. So, expect mediocre conditions and small, easing swells from the SE. 

Nothing great is expected Wednesday with continuing small swells and freshening NE winds as a strong weather system approaches from the west. This will kick up a late NE wind wave for exposed beaches, but Thursday morning is currently the best time to capitalise on it as we’ll see winds swinging NW in the wake of the passing front (to the south). NE facing beaches should see fun 2-3ft sets, and it’ll be clean on top.

Long term model guidance suggests a fresh series of S’ly swells for next weekend, but it’s still early days. I’ll have more on that on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!