Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd September)

Best Days: Sun: fun NE wind swell with offshore winds. Tues/Wed: building small/mod S'ly swells with mainly offshore winds in the mornings. 

Recap: Thursday’s easing swell trended downwards much smaller than expected, so wave heights were bigger than forecast - coming in at 3-4ft (against a morning forecast of 2-3ft). Winds were light offshore early ahead of freshening afternoon NE sea breezes. Today has seen smaller, less consistent S/SE swell in the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches with early offshores ahead of freshening afternoon sea breezes. 

Leftover S'ly swell at Queenscliff Friday morning
 
This weekend (Sep 23 - Sep 24)

Looks like we’ve had an improvement in the weekend outlook, at least for the second half of it. 

Saturday still looks very ordinary. Today’s south swell will ease back to small dribble leftovers - biggest in the Hunter with occasional 2ft sets and smaller surf elsewhere - and early NW winds will freshen from the north into the afternoon and should kick up some small NE wind waves late in the day. However the accompanying winds won’t be very favourable for surf prospects so keep your expectations low. 

The models have slightly increased the strength and breadth of Saturday’s developing N’ly flow through the greater western Tasman Sea, adjacent the NSW coast, which is a good thing. Of more interest is a slight tweak in the alignment to the N/NE overnight Saturday, ahead of a fresh W/NW change in the early hours of Sunday morning - these overnight winds will be more conducive to favourable NE swell production, and we should see NE facing beaches reaching 2-3ft+ across the Sydney region on Sunday, with slightly bigger surf across the South Coast. However, the Hunter coast will see diminishing surf size with increasing northerly latitude owing to the shadowing effects of the Hunter curve.

This swell is expected to peak through the morning, and ease into the afternoon but it’ll be clean all day under the W/NW breeze. Get in early for the biggest and best waves: remember, the largest sets will be concentrated at NE swell magnets and everywhere else will be much smaller. But, these kinds of short range swells are often quite peaky and usually light up most beaches with fun little A-frames. Size may very well halve by the mid-late afternoon. 

Next week (Sep 25 onwards)

Persistent N’ly winds off the Far North Coast through Sunday will continue to generate short range N’ly swell for the greater NSW coast, but I can’t see it bending in efficiently past Seal Rocks into Monday. 

As such we’re likely to see small surf through Monday, perhaps some lingering 1-2ft sets at NE facing beaches though this is more likely south of Sydney than anywhere else. Expect smaller surf at remaining beaches and up through the Hunter. It’ll remain clean with W/NW winds. 

W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait through Monday will kick up a new S’ly swell for Tuesday into the 2ft+ range at south facing beaches (in fact the South Coast should start to to see this new energy by late Monday). A slightly bigger secondary pulse is then expected Wednesday from the same source, around 2-3ft at south facing beaches. However smaller surf is likely at beaches with less southerly exposure - but as per usual the Hunter should see bigger waves at times. 

In fact the models have a secondary front pushing N/NE through the south-western Tasman Sea on Tuesday, which - if it eventuates - could add another foot or two of mid-range S’ly swell to Wednesday's size estimates. Let’s take a closer look on Monday. Winds looks good both Tues and Wed mornings with offshore winds but if the aforementioned front pushes through, Tuesday afternoon will see a gusty S/SW change (the upside being the increase in south swell for the following day). 

Looking further ahead and these southerly swells will ease rapidly through Thursday with freshening N’ly winds and a local NE windswell. 

A very strong procession of fronts are then expected to push into the lower Tasman Sea from later Thursday onwards, probably generating some mid-range S’ly swell for Friday but with a possible large south swell next weekend and continuing into the first half of the following week. 

More on this on Monday.. ‘till then have a great weekend!