Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th October)

Best Days: Sat: large S/SE swell, though windy from the S/SW. Sun: solid SE swell with early light offshore winds. Could become very big for a short period during the middle of the day. Mon: solid but rapidly easing SE swell, early offshores. 

Recap: Southerly swells have under-performed across Southern NSW over the last few days, despite the wave buoys recording a jump in peak swell periods to 15 seconds on Tuesday, and significant heights holding in around 1.2-1.4m. Ordinarily this would account for ~3ft sets at south facing beaches but it’s been very slow and inconsistent with size around the 2ft mark. A small NE swell provides a similar size range today with sets around 2ft. 

This week (Oct 5 - Oct 6)

Model guidance suggests very small surf for the next few days and on the whole it’s likely to be pretty accurate. 

A modest NE fetch on the eastern flank of a trough in the western Tasman Sea is positioned too far offshore (and therefore poorly aligned) to favour surf potential in Southern NSW. We may see a few small linger sets into Thursday morning but they’ll ease throughout the day. A small level of inconsistent long period S’ly energy may show up at swell magnets but on the whole this looks tiny as well. Early light winds will swing to a moderate NE breeze in the afternoon.

A fresh fetch forming in our near NE swell window Thursday night may kick up a small renewal of energy for early Friday but I can’t see much more than 1-2ft in it at reliable swell magnets.

Winds will swing moderate to fresh SW as a change pushes off the coast and a new Tasman Low forms in the southern Tasman Sea. A strong front wrapping around the developing low will bring about gusty S/SW winds late afternoon (earlier down south) but it’ll be too late to benefit swell production for Sydney surfers; any new size we see will be accompanied by gusty winds so conditions won’t be great as it is. So, leave Friday off the menu. 

This weekend (Oct 7 - Oct 8)

There won’t be any shortage of size this weekend, thanks to this developing Tasman Low. 

However, I am expecting a couple of individual swells from different parts of the low, and it looks like Sunday will see the best waves from a new S/SE tending SE swell, along with early offshore winds. 

Saturday will deliver short range S’ly energy in the wake of Friday’s late change. South facing beaches should pick up 5-6ft+ sets but they’ll be affected by fresh SW tending S/SW then S’ly winds (though these winds will ease during the day). Wave heights are expected to peak early and back off during the day, but the best locations will be those offering a degree of protection from the wind - and they’ll be smaller with size around 3-4ft (also easing). Southern corners will be considerably smaller in the 1-2ft range. 

The Tasman Low is expected to wind up S/SE gales on its southern flank overnight Friday and into early Saturday, producing a strong S/SE tending SE swell for Sunday morning with size generally in the 4-6ft range at open beaches with good southerly exposure. Current model output is suggesting a brief period on Saturday where surface winds may push 45-50kts (see below) and if this plays out as suggested, we may see an embedded period of larger surf pushing 6ft to maybe 8ft at reliable swell magnets for a few hours through the middle of the day. 

As always, locations with less southerly exposure will be smaller in the surf zone. The biggest waves will be found at exposed reefs and offshore bombies that focus mid-long period SE energy the best (models are estimating peak swell periods of 10+ seconds, but it'll likely be higher around 14-15 seconds). 

In any case, the early session on Sunday morning will be your best chance for a wave with light offshore winds, because fresh NE sea breezes are expected from lunchtime onwards.  

Next week (Oct 9 onwards)

Sunday’s solid SE swell will peak overnight and ease through Monday morning. Early morning may see some 4-5ft sets at open south facing beaches but it’ll ease very quickly as the day progresses. Conditions should be smooth with offshores through the morning and sea breezes after lunch. 

We may see a small level of short range NE swell in the mix too, from the fetch that’s expected to crop up late Sunday.

A gusty S’ly change is expected overnight and it’ll renew moderate S’ly swells across the coast through Tuesday though no great size or quality is expected, thanks to the responsible low and front likely to track quickly through our swell window. South facing beaches should see some 3-4ft sets but it'll be short lived - half a day of windswell, and half a day of groundswell.

In fact we’ll be back to northerlies by Wednesday ahead of another S’ly change (and possible south swell) due Thursday or Friday. More on this in Friday’s update.