Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/SE swell Thurs, with developing NE windswell in the a’noon
• Peak in NE windswell Fri AM with W’ly winds developing
• Small S swell for Sat, with a late kick possible
• Stronger S swell Sun PM, holding Mon with light winds Sun, freshening S-SE Mon
• Sizey S swell pulse Tues with light winds
• More strong S swell pulses likely Wed/Thurs, lingering into the weekend with improving winds

Recap

Lovely day yesterday with offshore winds extending through the day and groomed 3-4ft SE-E/SE swell on tap, easing during the a'noon. Today is seeing smaller surf, with easing E/SE swell and a small boost in new S swell adding up to some 2-3ft surf, a notch bigger on the Hunter. Clean conditions early with an offshore land breeze, tending to light/variable winds before a freshening a’noon NE Seabreeze. 

Smaller today but still some peaky E'ly quadrant swell on the beachies, better as the tide came in

This week (Sep 6-8)

A front and small low are now racing across the Tasman with a high over NSW moving into the Tasman and directing a freshening N’ly flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard. So far, so spring. A complex low, front and trough then approaches from the W, bringing a flush of W’ly winds and a S swell. There’s some changes to this outlook compared to Mon, so read on for details. 

In the short run we’ll see a freshening N’ly flow through tomorrow, likely in the strong wind range by the a’noon. Morning winds should be NW and clean on the beachies with some small E/SE swell offering up fun sized 2 to occ. 3ft sets. Through the a’noon we should see developing NE windswell, likely reaching 3ft by close of play.

The proximate fetch of N-NE winds to the NSW coast and extending up to QLD should see NE windswell into Fri AM in the 3-4ft range, possibly bigger on the South Coast. Early NW winds should tend W’ly through the day, offering great potential for some really fun waves under groomed conditions. 

This weekend (Sep 9-10)

Much softer outlook for the weekend as the expected low/frontal system doesn’t penetrate as far north along the NSW coast. Saturday now looks small for most of the day with fresh offshore winds as the front passes through Bass Strait, tending to light SE winds in the a’noon. Small amounts of longer period S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches are on offer, with a chance for a late kick in new S swell to 2-3ft from the Bass Strait source.

Sunday looks a better bet though with light morning offshore winds and a’noon seabreezes.  Stronger mid period  S swell from the fetch passing to the S and SE of Tasmania up the size and juice with surf in the 3ft range likely, bigger on the Hunter and blended with some E/NE swell to 2-3ft from a broad fetch through the Southern Coral and Northern Tasman seas. That should see potentially fun A-frames at select locations. An a'noon increase in slightly stronger period S swell is likely to supply stronger 4ft sets but winds will be an issue for most spots and sheltered locations will see smaller waves. Still worth a look though.

Next week (Sep 11 onwards)

Still looking at plenty of reinforcing S swell next week, although with a strong high moving NE of Tasmania we’ll likely have a few days of S’ly winds to get through.

Plenty of mid period S swell to 3-4ft on Mon, with E/NE swell to 2-3ft in the mix. Get in early though with a light SW-S flow expected to tend to freshening S-SE winds as the high pressure ridge builds along the coast.

A secondary front with strong gales (see below) adds another strong pulse of S swell now expected Tues, in the 5-6ft range, bigger 6ft+ on the Hunter. Winds should ease a notch from Mon, but we’re still looking at a S’ly flow, likely tending SE in the a’noon. 

A tertiary front then follows into the Tasman, on the same track working on an already active sea state. It’s likely models are underestimating swells from this source but we’re looking at strong S swells, tending S/SE through Wed and Thurs, with a very slow easing trend into late next week and the weekend as the fetch lingers in New Zealand longitudes. 

Variable tending N’ly winds look likely for this period as troughs linger near the coast. 

We’ll update size and timing on Fri but it’s certainly looking like an active period of strong S swells with an improving wind outlook through the week.

Seeya Fri for the latest update.