Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 11th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell  holding Mon with light winds  Mon AM
• Long period  S swell pulse Tues PM with light winds
• More strong S swell pulses Wed PM, holdingThurs AM, lingering into the weekend with generally light winds
• Last S swell pulse Sat with freshening NE winds
• Mixed bag of E/NE and NE swell Sun
• Workable E/NE-NE swells early-mid next week with fickle winds, likely tending NE

Recap

S swell took a while to fill in across the weekend with small NE swell leftovers Sat morning barely surfable under offshore winds and a late kick in new S swell not arriving until after dark at most spots. Sunday saw more size, in the 2-3ft range at most S facing beaches, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter with clean conditions extending well into the morning. A new pulse filled in overnight and today is seeing some stronger lines with size to 3-4ft at S facing beaches, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Small amounts of E’ly swell are also in the mix. Nice clean conditions on offer with a morning offshore breeze, expected to tend light/mod S/SE through the day. S swell pulses will be the story of the week, read on for details. 

Nice lines to start the working week- plenty more to come

This week (Sep 11-15)

A big dominant high (1032hPa) is sitting over SE Australia, with a series of powerful fronts passing well to the south and the progression slowed in New Zealand longitudes. The high is slow moving, setting up a dichotomy with N’ly winds across temperate NSW and a more SE flow in a ridge along the sub-tropics. Across all regions we’ll see pulses of S’ly groundswell this week from the deep fetches located in the Far Southern Tasman. 

In the short run winds look primo for tomorrow, with morning offshore breeze that should extend well into the late morning/lunch-time before tending to light NE-E/NE seabreezes. Todays size will wind back with leftover 2ft energy, bigger 3ft on the Hunter. A new pulse is en route, with the leading edge arriving around lunch-time (adjust timing for further south) with longer period 3-4ft sets through the a’noon. 

Similar winds for Wed, with a more N’ly bias. W-W/NW early, tending NW then NE in the a’noon. Another pulse looks to arrive mid/late morning so expect 3-4ft energy early at S facing beaches, rebuilding into the 3-5ft range in the a’noon with long period S swell. Expect some outliers at deepwater adjacent S facing reefs that can focus longer swell periods with some 6ft sets possible. 

Looks good for the final days of the week, with the slowed progression still sending mid/long period S swell trains up the Eastern Seaboard and light winds continuing under weak pressure gradients. Light morning offshores and weak seabrezes are on the radar for both Thurs and Fri.

Size will abate from Wed’s peak but there should be plenty of 3-4ft surf Thurs at S facing beaches, a notch smaller Fri. 

This weekend (Sep 16-17)

There looks to be one last pulse in the series, arriving late or overnight Fri or early Sat. Either way there should be some fun 3ft sets on offer for Sat morning with early light winds and freshening NE breezes in the a’noon, as the high finally tracks across the Tasman. An easing trend should be in play from the S, with a small amount of NE windswell possible in the a’noon as winds freshen. 

The high sets up a strong SE trade flow through the Eastern Coral Sea, with gradients squeezed by a southwards moving broad tropical depression (see below). Models show this depression remaining on the seaward side of Grand Terre (New Caledonia) and the bulk of the swell energy will be favouring sub-tropical areas. Nonetheless, we should see some workable E/NE swell energy filtering down from that source and a general broadening of the fetch into the Northern Tasman, possibly as early as Sun. Winds look iffy with a trough possibly bringing a variable flow or weak S’ly change. Expect a small mixed bag of NE windswell, small E/NE swell and the remnants of S swell. Likely in the 2ft range. 

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

Swell from the NE-E/NE continues into early next week, likely building into the 2-3ft range through Mon and Tues. Continuing iffy winds as a trough looks to hover around the South Coast although a freshening N-NE flow is possible by Tues/Wed, with NE windswell on the agenda. Workable options though, with swell from that NE quadrant continuing. 

There’s a lot of powerful storm activity under the continent and although most of the fetch is zonal (W-E) and better aimed at New Zealand and South Pacific targets we may see some extra long period S swell wrap mid next week. We’ll see how that looks on Wed. 

In the mean-time plenty of S’ly groundswell to work with.

Check ya Wed.