Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell leftovers Sat AM with W’ly winds tending SW
• Small S swell blend for Sat, with a late kick possible, extending into Sun AM
• Stronger S swell Sun PM, holding Mon with light winds Sun, and Mon AM
• Sizey S swell pulse Tues PM with light winds
• More strong S swell pulses likely Wed/Thurs, lingering into the weekend with generally light winds

Recap

Fun sized E/SE swell yesterday, mostly 2ft but with a few 3 foot sets showing up in the day. Conditions were clean early under an offshore flow with NE winds kicking up through the a’noon. An expected NE windswell has come in under f/cast expectations, although a building trend is still evident. Size in the 3ft range in Sydney, a little smaller on the Hunter with conditions rapidly improving as winds tend W’ly and clean up any existing chop from overnight NE winds. 

NE windswell in the process of being groomed by offshore winds

This weekend (Sep 9-10)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. The headline act is a complex low system approaching Tasmania with an embedded front and linked to a long inland trough. A NE-E/NE infeed into this system has produced swell from that quarter and as the low clears the swell shadow of Tasmania we’ll start to see swells from the S. Following systems next week look to generate stronger, longer period S’ly swells.

Offshore winds to kick off Sat, fresh W’ly to start and likely to tend SW from late morning, possibly with a late SE flow as a small trough segment hovers over the Sydney region. Leftover NE swells to 2ft are on offer for the morning, with traces of long period S swell from a deep frontal system passing through the far lower Tasman, adding another source of inconsistent 2ft swell to S facing beaches. We may see a late kick in new S swell from gales out of Bass Strait but local winds will be an issue. Nothing amazing but you should be able to hunt up a rideable wave.

Lighter winds Sun as the front/low dissipates and moves SE and a weaker pressure gradient moves over Central NSW. That should see a nice offshore flow through the morning , tending to light SE-NE breezes in the a’noon. A noticeable increase in S swell for the morning  with size in the 3ft range, bigger on the Hunter and an a’noon increase in stronger, longer period S swell will boost size further into the 4ft range. Mixed in will be some mid period E/NE swell from the Northern Tasman, adding in some 2 occ 3ft sets. 

Next week (Sep 11 onwards)

Reinforcing S swells are still in the menu for next week, albeit a tad downgraded as the follow-up fronts don’t penetrate as far into the Tasman Sea as originally modelled. We’ll still see some sizey S swell pulses for most of next week, with Mon continuing on from Sun’s pulse with size to 3ft at S facing beaches, easing a notch during the a’noon. Winds should be good for the morning, with the high pressure ridge now expected to be weaker that it looked on Wed. Light/mod SE winds are expected for the a’noon- they should be light enough for surf to stay reasonable.

The trend is then upwards Tues as period  charts show the next pulse moving up the coast. Likely a slightly undersized start in the 2-3ft range before size kicks back up to 3-4ft in the a’noon, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter and select S facing reefs. Morning offshore breezes will tend to light a’noon NE winds, so S facing beaches should be primo.

A weak, troughy pattern looks to provide a light/variable flow through Wed/Thurs, tending more N-NE on Fri. Winds look good through the morning with offshore land breezes, before weak/variable sea breezes in the a’noon.

The next pulse looks to kick Wed and this should be much stronger as severe gales in the fetch really boost swell periods. Expect some 4-5ft sets at least at S facing beaches with select reefs and S swell magnets up in the 6ft range, possibly with bigger 6-8ft sets. 

This pulse should back down Thurs, with plenty of size still through the morning before a last pulse Fri- in the 3-5ft range.

This event will have a long tail as the frontal progression slows in New Zealand longitudes and we should see S-S/SE swell linger into next weekend, holding size in the 3ft range at a minimum.

We’ll see how that looks on Mon but models are in broad agreement so we can pencil in plenty of surfing next week at S exposed breaks.

Further ahead and it looks like a lot of long period swell being generated under the continent next week, some of which may wrap into the East Coast. We may see another front next weekend, offering up a small S swell. A tradewind band in the Coral Sea and extending into the South Pacific will favour sub-tropical regions with some small E/NE energy filtering down from this source next weekend.

Let’s see how it looks Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!