Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 13th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More strong S groundswell pulses Wed PM, holdingThurs AM, with generally light winds tending N-NE in the a’noon
• Last S swell pulse Fri with freshening NE winds
• Small leftover S swells Sat with light morning winds
• Mixed bag of E/NE and NE swell Sun
• Workable E/NE-NE swells early-mid next week with fickle winds, likely tending NE
• More S swells late next week/into the weekend

Recap

S swells and light winds have been on the menu, with a lack of good banks being the major limiting factor for wave quality. Yesterday saw size in the 3-4ft range, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Periods jumped late and overnight on waverider buoys off Sydney with today reflecting that, seeing inconsistent but strong sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches, bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter. Conditions were primo under light land breezes so if you could find somewhere handling long period straight S swell there were good/great waves to be had. Otherwise, it's end to end closeouts.

Long lines of S'ly groundswell on offer if you can find a corner

This week (Sep 13-15)

Not much has changed since Mon. We still have a large (1032hPa) high slow moving over NSW directing light N’lies over temperate NSW and SE winds in the sub-tropics. A slow moving frontal progression is gradually working it’s way clear of New Zealand longitudes while sending pulses of S’ly groundswell our way. High pressure does clear the coast this week with an increasing N’ly flow before a weak, troughy pattern brings a light/variable flow for the weekend. A weak N’ly pattern next week will have a few options as swell direction turns to the E/NE. Lets look at the details.

In the short run todays long period groundswell will continue to pulse although we’ll be coming down off todays peak in size. No dramas with winds. Light W/NW-NW early tending light/mod N’ly through the day, more NE-E/NE on the Hunter. Expect inconsistent 4ft sets, a notch bigger on the Hunter.

N’lies freshen on Fri as a trough approaches but we’ll still see a morning NW flow, shorter in duration compared to the rest of this week before the wind swings. A passing front and compact low today and tomorrow (see below) which joins the parent progression looks to provide a last pulse of mid period S swell with 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. 

This weekend (Sep 16-17)

Fridays pulse now looks to ease into Sat but residual S swell trains should hold some inconsistent 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches. Winds look good, with a stalled trough on the South Coast delivering a light W/NW-NW flow tending to light/mod N-NE seabreezes. Should be easy to find a fun wave Sat.

A small mixed bag is on offer for Sun. The last of the S-S/SE swell trains will still be supplying some inconsistent 2ft sets (2-3ft at the best S swell magnets) with a small amount of E/NE swell from a souped up tradewind fetch filtering down from the tropics adding some 2ft sets. Light winds continue, with a morning offshore breeze and light a’noon NE seabreeze on offer.

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

Winds from the N’ly quarter next week, although we should see morning NW land breezes at least until mid week. Typical Spring.

Small start to the week as S swell leaves the building and a small blend of E/NE and NE swells have to do all the work. Not much more than 1-2ft surf is expected.

That E/NE swell is expected to build, possibly from late Mon, but by Tues we should be back up into the 2-3ft range as the souped up tradewind fetch (see below) sprays the east coast with swell, albeit better aimed at the sub-tropics. N-NE winds will freshen in the a’noon, adding some NE windswell into the mix. 

That NE windswell looks to peak Wed morning, along with E/NE swell with both sources adding up to 3-4ft of surf from that quarter. Winds should improve too as a trough/front approaches and winds shift NW, possibly W/NW through the day. Pencil Wed in. 

We’ll likely see winds shift Thurs as a front pushes into the Tasman with W tending W/SW-SW winds and clean leftovers from the E/NE to 2ft.

The front looks to provide some workable S swell, likely showing Fri in the 2-3ft range and hanging around for Sat at workable levels. Models are divergent about the strength of the front, but it’s unlikely to be be below 3ft, 3-4ft on the Hunter. 

Further S swells look likely to continue in the medium term, although no major low pressure development in the Tasman looks likely so you can keep the step-ups and guns in the rack. Tradewinds continue to look unseasonably active, although better aimed at the sub-tropics it’s likely we’ll see some small surf filter down from this source in the medium term. 

All in all, not such a bad outlook for the opening month of Spring.

Check back Fri for the latest.