Interesting stuff
Blowin, here's the RBA's take on the Depression of the 1890s:
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2001/2001-07/1890s-depression.html
"The depression, which saw real GDP fall 17 per cent over 1892 and 1893, and the accompanying financial crisis, which reached a peak in 1893, were the most severe in Australia's history. The overextension of the 1880s property boom and its unravelling led to an abrupt collapse of private investment in the pastoral industry and urban development and a sharp pullback in public infrastructure investment. A fall-off in capital inflow from Britain, adverse movements in the terms of trade and drought in 1895 accentuated and prolonged the depression."
Q2 global numbers aren't yet in, but I've been reading anticipated 20% GDP drops in 3 months, not over 2 years!
And the AFR:
https://www.afr.com/wealth/the-great-australian-property-crash-of-1891-w...
Prelim reading of the RBA paper - it seems banks will be saved via housing being saved via incomes being saved this time.
Stu...how’d you break a fin in one foot waves ?
Bigger down there ?
That board wouldn’t have caught a single wave here today.
VJ....incomes aren’t being saved. Unemployment is through the roof. A financial earthquake has occurred and the tsunami of economic shit is in the water and on its way to Australia.
The government has two options to save the real estate Ponzi from utter collapse : Fire hose immigration or UBI ( universal basic income).
Without either of those it’s the housing correction we NEED.
What kind of fucked up society allows a billionaire in Beijing to outbid a young Australian couple on a house in Sydney in which they intend to raise their family ?
Get back to me when the cool weather of winter brings a possible resurgence of Wuflu which scuttles the premature calls for fire hosing human imports and when the government money shower ends.
Wake me up when September ends....
VJ....can’t read that AFR article but very interested.
Chance of a copy and paste ?
If you’ve ever wondered just how invested Australia’s MSM is in the Big Australia population Ponzi , here is the Sydney Morning Herald with a headline “ Sydney population growth to plummet “ after modelling shows that Sydney’s population may only grow by 630,000 people in the next 5 years.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-s-population-growth-set-to-pl...
An extra 630,000 people - that equates to an additional 2423 people people moving to Sydney EVERY SINGLE WEEK for 260 weeks - and the MSM is crying that it’s not enough immigration.
You still need more evidence that it’s a pyramid / Ponzi scheme ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme
Obviously concern for the environment , water security and quality of life do not matter when you’re investment is predicated on growing the pyramid of punters .
Approximately 50,000 First Nations people lived in the Sydney basin before English settlement. There is less fresh water available now than when the First Nations people had attained a sustainable population for the Sydney basin.
Greed is dictating Australia’s population growth , not sustainability. This is why the government refuses to acknowledge any form of population plan for our country.
That they've chosen to use the word "plummet", when they could have used an infinite number of other words and phrases, says it all.
2-3ft down here this arv, Blowin. Wind dead west. Not big enough for the point but fun waves everywhere else.
Sounds like a nice reprieve from the knee high Northerly junk on offer here.
Did you hit another surfer, rocks or yourself ?
I think I hit the bottom. Did a closeout floater into a foot of water, and while I didnt feel it hit, and you'd be more inclined to think that sort of impact would push the plugs through the board rather than tear them out, I came up and that was the result.
Sometimes those FCS plugs are like wet cardboard.
Sometimes 80 kgs of surfer focused on the sideways motion of a fin tip which has slightly penetrated the sand is all it takes to knock them out.
FCS Fusion peanuts are my favourite - light, shallow and strong. (Multiple cant angles available). We whacked original FCS into paulownia and that should stay in!
Blowin I don't have AFR sub - thought you did. Swellnet is my only media subscription!
I don't reckon the ponzi will take off like it did, I reckon that was the peak. My 2c (pure copper) forecast is for globalism to retreat, nations to remember borders only as they are forced to. Globalism won't go without a fight, but every time it flows there will be outbreaks of this shit, constantly stalling it. Economic impact will be terrible, that's already baked in the cake (look to Venezuela, right now to see trend) - but as always, Oz won't be as extreme as other places. Local production resumes in increasing volumes and complexity, but perhaps not to the extremes of the last decade in what's offered. The oil shock is worse than the virus and has very severe implications.
If you feel like 75 pages of powerpoint or so and a sore brain on a Sunday night:
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Systemic-Change-Rev-7.pdf
The paper it's based on predicted $11 per barrel oil by 2020, in 2015, staggered that they could be so accurate as we have seen futures fall to this level (and a lot crazier) in the also predicted chaotic pricing events. That paper here (perhaps spend a morning on it with coffee after a surf):
http://tratarde.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Depletion-A-determination...
Stu ,so whats the feed back on those fins,must be ok if you were still using them?Due to their length did they feel weird being so long?
The fins went incredible in the edge fish, Simba. Stopped the tendency that all fish have to turn flat; had no problem putting it up on rail, and in steep parts of the wave too.
Last night I was testing them in my edge shortboard and the result wasn't so good, but it was the first attempt so I don't put much credence in it. Never do when testing, always takes a few surfs. Also, I'd been riding fish for a few weeks so jumping back onto a shorty always throws me a bit.
Stu can you do a report on how those fins feel in your short board when you get it sorted cause im sorta interested to see if they are worth investing in....love the look of them.
Yep. Might be a few weeks till I get replacements, but I'll post something.
"The fins went incredible in the edge fish, Simba. Stopped the tendency that all fish have to turn flat; had no problem putting it up on rail, and in steep parts of the wave too."
Stu, to save me scrolling back too far what fins are you referring to? Are they a Gephart style keel? Just saw the photo you posted of the Webber fins and the rear ones looked similar to a Gephart .....
Hey 82shoes,
Here's a shot of the front and rear fins together to give you an indication of size difference. I've also sat an Alkali twin underneath for comparison. Both the Webber and Alkali are 145mm deep but the tip of the Webber is much thinner and more flexible.
Note also the single tab in the rear keel.
The true face of China starting to be revealed day by day.
The most obvious concept in the world - research the origins of the virus and how it came to pose such a clear and present global threat and thus create a science based assessment upon which to combat this pandemic - is rejected by China as “ political “ .
The Chinese government is so against this most fundamental and necessary step to combat the virus that they are threatening Australia with economic blackmail if Australia doesn’t kowtow to its demands.
There is no greater signposting that the Australia/ China relationship has run its course and now is time to remove the Chinese grip over our society.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-is-needed-is-global-coopera...
Stu heres another brand but futures only.....seems the same twin fin different trailers ...
https://www.sanctumsurf.com.au/large-flex-quad
Thanks Stu, the Webber is way narrower as you said and i guess the short fatter rear fin would compensate for any less drive? That's an interesting looking fin that rear one...
@blowin did you read Stan Grants article on ABC news this morning? He appears to be on the same page as you regarding the threat China poses to the established world order.... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/coronavirus-critical-juncture-chi...
Plenty more where that came from . Only those on the direct CCP payroll , the fifth columnists and the most committed apologist lackeys can still maintain a straight face when they claim that China doesn’t intend to force Australia to cede to its will through any means necessary.
China has its tentacles around Australia. It’s diaspora hides Chinese agents within Australia. No dissent will be tolerated....even within Australian borders.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/melbourne/mack-hortons-parents-reveal-the...
stan knows stuff...
https://nypost.com/2015/02/08/chinas-secret-plan-to-topple-the-us-as-the...
William Bourke, president of the Sustainable Australia Party wrote a good article on international students and immigration yesterday too.
This Coronavirus epidemic has given us all a lot to think about regarding the direction Australia has been heading in......
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/covid-19-raises-doubt...
"China’s secret plan to topple the US as the world’s superpower"
....old mate has apparently been asleep for several decades. Secret? From who exactly? Anyone with a functioning brain and the vaguest interest in international affairs knew this a long long time ago.
"Over two decades it lifted more than half a billion people out of poverty."
Good point Stan, it's a fact all too coveniently forgotten in criticism of China.
" It introduced a new phrase into geopolitics: "Socialism with Chinese characteristics". Others called it authoritarian capitalism."
Call it what you like China has always had authoritarian governments and who are we to tell them how to govern their nation? See point below.
" The Party made a compact with the people: we will make you rich but we will not make you free. And the people — a limited dissident movement notwithstanding — bought in."
Another good point Stan, China is not a democracy but the evidence is that a large majority support Xi's government....and why not? If you were born in a hut with a dirt floor and too little to eat what's not to like about a nice place to live, a steady income and the kind of lifestyle most of us take for granted.
"………we in the West still believed China would inevitably become like us."
I find it hard to believe that Stan would actually believe that. I mean even to an external observer it has been obvious that China never aspired to be anything like "us". The only ways that China has ever wanted to resemble the west were in wealth and power, which they have achieved.
"The pessimists fear inevitable war with China. Beijing is preparing for just such a conflict.
" The optimists may still believe the world can make room for authoritarian China, that we can live together. They believe the peace can hold — that must be the hope. The alternative is horrendous."
The optimists do believe that, count me amongst them. But hostility can arise quickly when one party presents itself as morally superior and gives itself the right to judge the other. But don't worry war is not in China's interests. Why bother? Their rival has been self-destructing before their eyes for decades. It has wasted vast amounts of money and equal amounts of credibility destroying any hope of stability in the Middle East. They have staggered from financial crisis to financial crisis. They have elected a buffoon who, after numerous attempts, has finally managed to plunge them into a major crisis. Chinese culture takes the long view. Why knock down a building that is collapsing under its own weight.
"China has always had authoritarian governments and who are we to tell them how to govern their nation?"
Your indifference is concerning.
Why is it every time that China is mentioned, Blindboy feels the need to come in and obfuscate , apologise and then round out on the US ?
China threatens every nation with subjugation. Not sure how that involves the USA , beyond the fact that we really appreciate the unrivalled might of our American cousins being in our quarter when faced with an expansionist dictatorship which holds race to be the decisive factor in who wins and who loses.
I’d have thought that China , being the most unapologetically racist nation on Earth would trigger Blindboy’s intolerance of intolerance.
I guess it’s a white hate thing and not a rational thing ?
The US isn’t China’s rival.....the rest of world is China’s rival.
Vietnam , India , USA , Brazil , Australia, New Zealand, Canada , UK ,Germany, Italy , Sweden , Denmark plus another 100 odd nations at least which firmly opposed to China’s colonialism.
China didn’t lift anyone out of poverty. The west was kind enough to lend a hand to China as it was mired in its backwards , muddling culture of oppression and low self esteem.
Hear that ?
That’s the sound of cheering in support of the brave Australian who protested at the Chinese consul with his whip.
Mack Horton’s family getting death threats , glass thrown in their pool , their house ransacked and their computer hacked by Chinese agents in Australia under the guise of students/ workers deserves much greater media attention. We need to route out the fifth columnists who take advantage of our tolerant society and hide amongst us.
There are estimates that upwards of a million Uighurs are being held in so-called counter-extremism centres and another 2 million have been forced into so-called re-education camps for political and cultural indoctrination.
But who are we to tell the CCP that they're wrong?
“But hostility can arise quickly when one party presents itself as morally superior and gives itself the right to judge the other.”
Yeah , China is blameless . Particularly liked when they claimed the timber Vietnamese fishing boat in Vietnamese waters rammed the massive , steel hulled Chinese naval vessel and sunk itself last week.
Poor China....such victims of unfair moral judgement.
Remember this classic line from Blindboy ? : “ Based on my research, China is not a threat to Australia “
FFS....Based on his “ research “.....
Repost comment from elsewhere :
“I get the impression China thought that by sending all their best and brightest to learn (and steal) from the best in the West that they were going to play the West at ‘our’ own game and win. The Japanese kind of did similar – twice in fact, once during the Meiji Restoration which ended (ultimately) in them getting their head kicked in back in 1945 and the more subtle version which took force in the very late 1980s when the ‘Japan that can say no’ meme came to a crashing end. I feel like right about now China might be feeling a little sore and learning that the masters of the universe in the West have had many centuries of running this show and they didn’t get to the top by being stupid.“
Let’s not forget the making of Tibetan children shoot their parents dead, nor forget Japan or even England regarding recent history (sub 250 years)
One thing I’ve learnt during my world travel binge this last decade is that everyone is different and there is no normal.
This goes also with laws, morals, goals, missions, you name it. Everyone is different but not always in a pleasant “oh that’s cute” way
My boots on the ground say beware
I have to admit that the LNP have done a few things right lately:
/ Refusing to bail out Virgin Australia
/Refusing to put temp visa holders on welfare
/ Light touch relinquishing of domestic quarantine rules
/ Alignment with New Zealand as our possible first border reinstatement
/Non mandatory Virus App.
Obviously there’s a list twice as long which states just how they continue to fuck up , but credit where it’s due.
Particularly as the ALP objected to a few of the above actions despite them directly contravening the alleged fundamental ideology of the party.
It's not indifference Andy. Diplomacy, like politics , is the art of the possible. So what can Australia do? China has a tradition of authoritarian rule that it will not change. Australia has very limited influence that needs to be used to maximum effect. There is international diplomatic pressure on China over a number of issues, the Uighurs, organ transplants...write your own list.
Then put that in the context of Stan Grant's analysis;
"The pessimists fear inevitable war with China. Beijing is preparing for just such a conflict.
" The optimists may still believe the world can make room for authoritarian China, that we can live together. They believe the peace can hold — that must be the hope. The alternative is horrendous."
I am not a total fan of utilitarianism but analysing things in that way can give an insight. So what actions lead to the best outcomes for the most people or the least harm to the fewest people? My belief is that the priority is to avoid a war with China since that would create the greatest harm to the largest num ber of people. The risk might be very small but the consequences are beyond imagination. Actions therefore which increase tensions with China are undesirable unless there is some very significant benefit to a large number of people. In terms of the Uighurs I cannot see any course of action by Australia, other than our usual diplomatic efforts, which meet those criteria, but I can be persuaded if you can. What concerns me most, in terms of the risk of war, are simple minded, ill considered views creating hostility for absolutely zero benefit. This is the real world, things are far from perfect, the role of our politicians and diplomats is to make the best of difficult circumstances and to do that they need to take utilitarian analysis seriously and not play to prejudice to build their own popularity.
You think that holding China accountable for actions which have imperiled the world is nothing more than “ playing to prejudice “ for votes ?
And you think that Australia making a determined effort to rout out Chinese authoritarian influence in our democracy is pandering to racists ?
I don’t think you find Chinese politics abhorrent at all. I think you don’t give true voice to your love of Chinese authoritarianism because it’s a very unpopular opinion. I think that your hatred of the US is defined by your love for China.
War with China is nothing I’d ever wish for but it would be preferable to being a 2nd class citizen whilst China overthrows our nation.
China will continue to impose their will on Australia until they meet resistance which they find outweighs the benefits of continued incursion. Better to resist now rather than later. It’s getting too late already.
Can we keep some distance between the arguments and the people prosecuting them?
There's been too much talk about the person typing the comments, rather than the comments alone.
It's wholly unecessary and is a surefire way to debase any debate.
I think we should take Blindboy’s advice and dispassionately recognise that China wants to be a dominant world power and that dominant world powers can behave badly.
We should therefore cease all ties and relations with China. Appreciate that it’s better to take a short term economic hit rather than allow China to infiltrate and undermine our country under the guise of free trade and human movement. They can take their plans to buy Australia and.....fuck off back to China.
Close the door on their totalitarian dictatorship. Make a stand in principle.
Be intolerant of China’s racial intolerance.
I can’t believe that Blindboy and myself agree on something....we acknowledge that we won’t change Chinese politics, so we should just excoriate it from our community .
Stu....When someone is siding with an evil totalitarian regime in preference to Australia then the politics are the person.
Nah...swap Thatcher for China, and that just sounds like something Rick from the Young Ones would say.
You got all weepy yesterday thinking about the ANZACs and now Australia is facing another existential threat and there’s a fella on here siding with the enemy.
It’s not nuanced , it’s not” utilitarian analysis “ it’s muddying the waters so that Australians can’t definitively identify the threat. It’s been the Chinese tactic for decades.
Hide and bide.....and it’s language such as that which allows the threat to appear less defined.
I realise I sound earnest and you probably think I’m getting compulsive and weird ....not so. I just think this is a genuine threat to Australia. The most serious issue we face. So you’ll have to excuse a bit of strained language and repetition.
The Chinese aren’t fucking around....they sent warships uninvited and unannounced into Sydney harbour last year. They expect us to roll over and give up our country at their convenience and our corrupt political class is paving their way.
Last thing I feel like stomaching is some Chinese sympathiser trying to disseminate doubt amongst us just when the opportunity for Australians to galvanise together and make a difference is waning.
Stu...
Not taking the piss about the ANZAC thing, Stu. I feel the same. I’d say that our feelings regarding Australia on the whole are probably similar.
I understand you not wanting to encourage personal attacks , but in this instance I believe that the other poster is using their contributions to encourage betrayal of Australia....which I take personally.
Not getting nasty. Just holding people to account.
Better than sounding like Rick from The Office Stu.
You need to understand that everyone has something they feel strongly about, hence everyone has an excuse in their back pocket to make a debate personal. And they all feel entitled because theirs is the most important reason.
Aside from it being a short cut to forum anarchy, it's a counter-productive means of persuasion. People don't see the error of their ways when they have fingers pointed in their chest; they bunker down more firmly into their foxhole.
I’m not trying to persuade Blindboy . That’ll never happen.
I’m correcting his sophistry.
Tell me , Stu....how Blindboy can refuse to accept any form of racism , it’s his personal crusade to eradicate every last micro aggression from Australian discourse , but when it comes to China - the most monoculturally idealising and racist political regime on the planet - he seems more than willing to accept their ways with a shrug of the shoulders ?
I support a fella harmlessly cracking a whip in legitimate protest at a Chinese consul and he says that my very acceptance of the fella’s action is encouraging racial violence , yet when our government asks China to concede to an investigation which may help unravel the secrets of the Coronavirus and the Chinese government responds with blackmail and imposition of sanctions with the hope of crippling our economy and hopefully making Australians destitute in punishment , he thinks that’s an appropriate course of action and for our political class to oppose it is to “ appeal to prejudice “.
Seriously.....the bloke is peddling propaganda for Australia’s number one national threat.
That’s not just my personal bugbear. It’s the prime consideration of our military. It’s also the second largest concern after the Wuflu for virtually every political commentator out there .
Yes well that too.
Don't do it. Argue the point not the person, and same goes for every other commenter on here.
Yass, very noble Stu. But what's the point of this absurdity?
"The west was kind enough to lend a hand to China as it was mired in its backwards , muddling culture of oppression and low self esteem."
It's not even a breathtaking ignorance of history.
No google even involved.
It's just a quick snapshot of what's rattling around inside a serial offender's skull.
Blowipedia.
What's the point in 'debating' this thinly veneered bigotry?
More's the point, what's the friggin' point in defending it to the death?
Voltaire??
I like this one myself:
“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”
I’d like to hear your version of history, Facto. Might be good for a giggle. Here’s what actually happened and how well things were going for China before the West stepped in and started feeding them foreign investment and the big leg up.
Oh , yeah ....previous to this was how the West saved their arses in WW2.
Special mention going to the tens of millions killed through muddling , backwater politics.
“The Mao Era: 1949–1977
Mao Zedong’s tenure as Chairman of the PRC triggered sweeping changes for the country.
1953–1957: First 5-Year Plan
The program’s aim was to boost China’s industrialization. Steel production grew four-fold in four years, from 1.3 million tonnes to 5.2 million tonnes. Agricultural output also rose, but it couldn’t keep pace with industrial production.
1958–1962: Great Leap Forward
The campaign emphasized China’s agrarian-to-industrial transformation, via a communal farming system. However, the plan failed—causing an economic breakdown and the deaths of tens of millions in the Great Chinese Famine.
1959–1962: Lushan Conference and 7,000 Cadres meeting
Top leaders in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) met to create detailed policy frameworks for the PRC’s future.
1966–1976: Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution
Mao Zedong attempted to regain power and support after the failures of the Great Leap Forward. However, this was another plan that backfired, causing millions more deaths by violence and again crippling the Chinese economy.
1971: Joined the United Nations
The PRC replaced the ROC (Taiwan) as a permanent member of the United Nations. This addition also made it one of only five members of the UN Security Council—including the UK, the U.S., France, and Russia.
1972: President Nixon’s visit
After 25 years of radio silence, Richard Nixon was the first sitting U.S. President to step foot into the PRC. This helped re-establish diplomatic relations between the two nations.
1976–1977: Mao Zedong Death, and “Two Whatevers”
After Mao Zedong’s passing, the interim government promised to “resolutely uphold whatever policy decisions Chairman Mao made, and unswervingly follow whatever instructions Chairman Mao gave.”
1979: “One-Child Policy”
The government enacted an aggressive birth-planning program to control the size of the country’s population, which it viewed as growing too fast.
A Wave of Socio-Economic Reforms: 1980-1999
From 1980 onward, China worked on opening up its markets to the outside world, and closing the inequality gap.
1980–1984: Special Economic Zones (SEZs) established
Several cities were designated SEZs, and provided with measures such as tax incentives to attract foreign investment. Today, the economies of cities like Shenzhen have grown to rival the GDPs of entire countries.”
Basically it was death , death and a bit more self inflicted genocide before the Seppos helped them get a fucking clue. Until they allowed the neoliberals to utilise the Chinese near- slave labour which allowed international wage arbitrage , state enforced capital containment and intellectual property theft on a continental scale to lift China out of the gutter.
BTW....the award for the longest attempt to sustain a strawman argument goes to ......Facto , for his years long campaign to conflate rejection of barbarous cultural and political practices with bigotry.
Facto also takes the award for “ Most own goals and stridently contradictory claims “.
Have it cunts