Interesting stuff
"Blowin. I don't reckon the initial Chinese interaction with developing countries was as extensive as the developed countries like Italy, Spain, USA, etc. I reckon the tourism factor is what spread this so extensively in the developed countries so early and so quickly. Once it gets a foothold in Africa, India, Indo, etc the statistics are going to become interesting. Then again I might be wrong and the alternative explanation would become interesting as well"
The question then is why was Bali not hit hard?
In theory Bali should be overflowing with cases, popular with people from all over the world including Chinese and the Indo government didnt do anything for weeks, remember they claimed they were virus free for some time.
Id love to know the figures, but Indonesia also has decent business connections with China especially through Jakarta and Surabaya, same goes for kuala lumpur.
It's just weird how this is playing out, got to be something in this heat thing.
...that sounds a lot like you're talking about...
Population genetics sypkan? Or were you thnking of something else? Different populations vary in their genetic composition and that could influence the rates of transmission. Pretty straight forward stuff.
That you Adolf ?
This is a slippery slope
Bali had a lot of early exposure from direct flights from Wuhan.
Ummm, any inheritable characteristic is genetically determined. These include such easily observable characteristics as height. Anyone been to Lombok? How you get from there to Adolf is beyond me. Shock horror, some populations have a different range of skin tones to others! Given the complexity of our proteome the possibility that lung tissue in some populations would be more resistant to infections is a reasonable hypothesis.
Breakfast in Bali
Breakfast in America
And the stats back it up.
The link between diet and disease is old news
Yeh could well be shoredump
could be the smoking too
study I read about this morning found smokers get the disease less than non smokers by a factor of up to 5. ....spark up a gudang with ya nasi goreng...
it was in france, now they're giving nurses nicotine patches as a preventative measure to see if it works, i'll take the gudang
nasi, gudangs, warm climate, wealth, culture, travel patterns, densities, concrete, its complex...
heard they may be strains as well
"study I read about this morning found smokers get the disease less than non smokers by a factor of up to 5. ....spark up a gudang with ya nasi goreng"
For a second my draw dropped as they predicted the opposite as putting hand to mouth all the time.
But then a second latter i thought, okay cigaret smoke is hot.
Maybe it kills the virus?
Many Indonesians are not healthy though, bit of a generalisation but IMHO they generally dont eat much vegetables and actually eat a lot of fried foods.
But obesity is generally lower as more a well off thing.
About time smokers get a bit of positive stats.
Sorry to disappoint you, Having fired up more than a couple of Gudangs over the years, those unfiltered buggers as thick as your index fingers, I am sad to say the limited evidence available suggests the exact opposite, smoking increases the risk.
Ahhh... we kind of.. cough.. cough..
Know it...
Bulldozer standoff with Virgin plane at Perth Airport:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/virgin-australia-administration-planes...
Got to drive my old work LandCruiser out there on the tarmac a few times, that was hot fun, I was pretending to be a plane...
"One property analyst warns the worst-case scenario, where coronavirus restrictions are extended for at least six months, could see housing prices tumble by up to 30 per cent."
30% of shitloads still leaves fucking heaps.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/worst-case-scenario-house-prices-...
From the same article: "In a recent note, CBA put the estimated decline in capital city prices at 10 per cent over the next six months (or 20 per cent on an annual basis), with similar forecasts from other economists."
If so, maybe a 5% drop for coastal surf real estate, or just a flattening of what has been a red hot demand curve.
Coastal real estate could even keep going up as white flight/sea change increases with working from home and people wanting to get out of the city, improve quality of life.
Wasn't that a Velvet Underground song?
White flight, white seek...
Yeah looks like residential property is going gangbusters, meanwhile the number of empty shops on the wrong end of River Street continues to grow.
pathetic...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/disinformation-china-eu-...
eu is china's bitch just as much as us...
more even....
FR, Andy. Could it just drop enough to allow my better half and me to buy a doer-upper in your 'hood, please?
I'm trying to manipulate the market so that I can afford 1000m2 across the road from the beach for about $400k.
I don't really mind if the house itself is a bit shabby :)
Wish me luck.
Will do!
Care to subdivide?
Yeah but only if we pool surfboards as well.
I've got just the place in mind, I just have to get the price to drop by about $500k.
We're in!
Freeride.....if the international borders stay shut I reckon you’ll get that Ballina place at $520K for about $350K by October. Perhaps less. Probably less.
Without population growth the wheels fall off the Ponzi.
Scomo is going to try and turbo charge human imports to prop up our useless economy. Reality may come between him and his ambition .
That'd make things very interesting. It'd certainly sort out who really needs to sell.
People don’t generally panic till they see others panicking .
Some will have to sell. Others will see the prices dropping from the forced sales and want to sell . Prices drop more , panic ensues.
Im going for a 10-20% drop on Freerides' Ballina place so $520 down to $416-$468 in six months.
But to put things in perspective, cheapest house you can get in my suburb now is $400k only five years ago you could still pick up the odd house for $270
Geez, If you take property advice from blowin, that really is desperation stakes.
While property prices may come off a little, it's got bugger all to do with immigration levels. We've actually seen a very substantial depopulation of Australia over the last few months and it's had very little effect on property prices. Places like Ballina will always be in strong demand as more and more people work from home. The Covid crisis will only increase the trend of digital nomads looking for beach locations 1-2 hours out of cities. This idea that property values are going to drop by 30% due to Blowin's so-called immigration Ponzi scheme is just Hansonesque drivel.
well we'll see I guess.
Gunna talk to a couple crew in real estate this week and see how things are panning out on the ground.
A million gets a house and land on the latest beachside Legoland development.
If those real estate folks say, "hold off for a while because prices are going to drop", that will be the first time that recommendation has ever been made by the dirt pimps.
Don’t just listen to me ....take it from the “ Hansonesque “ Domain real estate .
What would those bigots know about real estate ?
https://www.domain.com.au/research/low-immigration-will-weigh-on-the-pro...
The Domain research house racists had this to say :
“Lower population growth will be a major contributor to falling property prices
Lower immigration means reduced demand for property, which will put downward pressure on prices. “
Just to put a bit of context on Vic Local’s expertise. ( guffaws ) If a direct contradiction of his ridiculous opinion by one of the largest real estate brokers in Australia doesn’t get him to shut his lips then nothing will. Particularly as they’re talking down their own book.
So what was the nature of FR/Blowin bet again (even if it's not on now) - was it a bet for a certain % fall, no fall at all, 1/2 decrease??
Headline of dirt pimp (thanks for that term) online article was for Melb to prepare for 10% fall. Usually coast follows upper end Melbourne discretionary income/access to credit
"30% of shitloads still leaves fucking heaps." - repeated for emphasis and to keep it off the banner page haha
I’m not sure ,VJ. I think it was just coastal real estate going down in price ?
Perhaps Freeride can remember.
Yep immigration increases real estate prices........ by around1% a year.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/immigration-boosts-australian-house-price...
Ultracrepidarianism, blow in, me old China.
What happened in WA last decade, ponzi boy?
Where exactly did it say property prices were going to fall 30% in that article? Nowhere. I acknowledged a decline (backed up by the article), but your 30% drop in prices, in a desirable location, is just pure nonsense blowin. Like I said before, stop making shit up.
The tripartite nature of the bet was as follows : 1. that we would still be talking about Covid19 a month later.
Result: Blowin won.
2. That we would not see as many Covid19 cases in Aus as last bad flu season -2017 (around 300000).
Result: Unclear but looks unlikely. Aus has under 7000 cases with an Rnought of less than 1.
3. That coastal real estate would not drop a cent in value.
Result: Unknown as yet.
Thanks Facto....WA is a great example of just how reliant house prices are on immigration.
The claims that house price increases are more do do with availability of credit and price of debt is disproved by the fact that WA house prices have declined whilst East Coast has increased radically.
Both coasts have the same access to credit whilst only the East coast has the massive population growth.
Slowdown in mining and oil/gas FIFO (thankfully to a degree) also oversupply hasnt helped either, main reasons for WA being lower ATM, also was overpriced with it peaking 2009 and failing to get back to those figures while east coast didnt even start going up till after that. A good example was my mum sold old house in Freo 2008 at top of the market (coincidence) and moved east (long story) , bought a near new place in Gerringong for 400k which she sold in 2018 for more than double , moved back to WA and bought a much nicer / bigger place in the southwest , all just right place at right time. Seems that place in Gerringong now is worth a bit less (another house in same 3plex just sold ) , not sure about Sydney as its a different market than the south coast but pattern is there. WA has been pretty stagnant and some good buys to be had, now with oncoming recession / depression who knows? As stated above coastal country towns tend to defy the market at times and alsways a better buy when comparing with spending same coin on a place in the silver city .
Vic Local you wrinkled old bit of elbow skin, the 30% drop came from the ABC article.
"Predictions house prices could fall by 30 per cent in worst-case scenario as coronavirus restrictions bite"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/worst-case-scenario-house-prices-...
Andy...I’m not quoting any source . Just my own opinion.
As stated by others , even a thirty percent fall still leaves house prices extremely high.
I reckon if the population Ponzi doesn’t get rebooted, then in some areas the falls will be greater.. Half price isn’t unlikely.
The world was ( is ) drunk on indulgence . Everything is cyclical. Even greed . Ask your friends if they’re spending as much on discretionary items as a few weeks ago. I’ll guarantee that many people’s spending habits are already changing and we haven’t yet experienced the psychological shock of this crisis yet . Wait till the media starts pumping out the financial hardship click bait stories .
People spend less , the money doesn’t flow around the community, less money equals more unemployment equals less discretionary spending.....feedback loop. It’s already happening but there’s a lag whilst it builds up momentum.
People’s mindset after the depression was altered for decades. There was far less gratuitous consuming. The current price of houses relies on gratuitous spending.
WA mining / gas boom was a great example of how the psychology of an economic crisis has just as much effect as the crisis itself. Maybe it is the crisis itself.
Prior to the GFC , the money being thrown around was ludicrous. From a somewhat sensible base at the turn of the millennium, the cash being splashed around was getting out of hand by 2005 or so.
It was nothing for the company to fly an employee to another country for their down time every few weeks. All taxis , meals , accommodation in transit paid for. An afternoon flight back to Perth then a night in a nice hotel , dinner and drinks all on company dime was standard.
Then the GFC hit the world ....but Australia’s commodities boom was hardly affected. Beyond the fear sown from overseas events , it was business as usual. Huge projects in the pipeline , record level profits .
The psychological fall out was still felt. Every company started tightening their belts. “ Lean construction “ was the buzz name for the avalanche of cost cutting which followed. Now you paid for your own meals and taxis whilst in transit. Many new employees were only hired from Perth which meant no overseas / interstate tickets. Many people paid their own way to Perth from their homes.
The on-site cost cutting was even more egregious. Daily spend on employee food went from $16 per day to $6 per day. Less time off. More casualisation. More ruthless IR practices.
The financial situation of the sector hadn’t changed but the mindset had. A trend of reduced expenditure settled upon the entire industry.
This is what began the downturn in WA property prices , the full effect of which wasn’t felt for a few years as the trend gained momentum. There is still plenty of work in WA but remuneration is far less and work conditions are far less generous. Just because of a cultural shift brought upon by the idea of scarcity.
This is what Australia has ahead it.
It’ll take a little while for the trend to establish but when it does it will become self reinforcing.
12-18 months and Australia will be a different place.*
* Unless the immigration Ponzi is resumed. But you know Scotty from Real Estate is dying to fire hose imports back into the country. Watch out for a governmentally encouraged surge in “ foreign investment “ when the nation starts to be sold off apace just to shore up the books short term.
Kim Jong Un is rumored to be dead after botched heart surgery.
Doubt it's true but hey he is only human, never know, lets wait and see.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-un-rumored-...
Finally some good news in 2020
Well if it's true his sister Kim Yo-jong takes over, she is much better looking but read she is possibly just as ruthless.
This is what happens if an ordinary Australian citizen raises concerns about the evil CCP and it’s sinister incursion into Australian society.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/student-activist-warns-of-chilling-eff...
Stu whats the latest with the webber twin fins .....recomend or not?
The latest?
Photo taken 40 mins ago...
Bummer is I'm borrowing the fins from a mate so I'll have to buy a set to replace them then buy a set for myself.
Ah, original FCS plugs... my commiserations Stu
Have it cunts