We still have an unusual S/SE groundswell inbound for Thursday, generated by an earlier incarnation of this system when it was at more polar latitudes.
The models have strengthened things in the last few runs so there’s been a subsequent upgrade in surf and wind for the forecast period.
The storm track for the end of this week and weekend looks very impressive on the synoptic charts, but once you analyse the surface wind field, it starts to fall apart at the seams, just a little bit.
A long fetch of SW gales is aimed up and moving towards WA as part of a complex gyre well south off the state. Rotating fetches around the edge of the gyre will hold large pulses of SW swell right through the end of the week into and over the weekend
With all the action down south the Coral Sea is in a classic mid-winter flat spell and will remain so right through this week and into next week.
The low next to Tasmania and proximate fetch will generate a strong spike in S swell tomorrow before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking less aligned for S swell production.
The current northwards moving low and proximate fetch will generate a quick spike in S swell before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking less aligned for S swell production.
This is driving stiff W’ly tending SW’ly winds all the way up to the tropics - even New Caledonia is seeing this stiff SW flow! The current northwards moving low and proximate fetch will generate a quick spike in S swell before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking more zonal and not as favourable for swell production.
The low responsible for our current local swell is moving outside of our swell window, and so surf size will ease into Tuesday.
A deep low pressure system near Tasmania is directing strong southerly winds across the South Oz coast.
