Southern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday February 24th)

Best Days: Wednesday, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mid-period SW swell Wed with N/NW winds ahead of late sea breezes
• Fading swell Thu with variable S winds ahead of sea breezes
• Tiny W/SW swell for Fri, with a slightly better increase in size through the PM, easing Sat
• Variable tending S winds Fri, N/NW tending S/SE Sat
• Moderate sized mix of W/SW-SW swells building Sun with variable tending S winds
• Easing swell Mon with variable S winds ahead of sea breezes

Recap

Saturday offered the best waves with clean conditions and 2ft of swell, fading yesterday with not much to work with.

This morning is again tiny with clean conditions under strengthening offshore winds.

This week and weekend (Feb 25 - 30)

Today’s freshening winds are linked to a frontal system passing under us, with a broad, weak fetch of W’ly winds generating a small pulse of mid-period SW swell for Wednesday.

The strength of these winds has been downgraded and we’re now only looking at 1-2ft surf Wednesday with a N/NW offshore, tending variable into the early afternoon ahead of late sea breezes and a trough moving through overnight.

The swell will fade Thursday as early S winds tend variable, while into Friday and Saturday, some tiny W’ly swell is due, generated by healthy but northward positioned frontal activity moving in from the west.

This looks to limit the size across the South Arm to 1ft Friday morning though a small lift in swell is due into the afternoon to 1-2ft but with W/SW-SW winds, fading Saturday from 1-1.5ft under a morning offshore.

A stronger but still, northerly located frontal system moving under the country late week should produce a better pulse of W’ly groundswell for Sunday afternoon. This looks to only be 2ft, but the remnants of the storm moving under us Saturday should kick up a bit more size to 2-3ft but with S’ly winds, easing Monday under more variable winds.

We’ll confirm this in the coming updates.